By Nora Redmond
Riskier assets like stocks, commodities and currencies have proved in recent history to be able to resist more significant selloffs, analysts say
The factors that led to aggressive selloffs in riskier assets during past energy shocks are not currently in place, analysts at Deutsche Bank said.
Risk assets look likely to remain resilient despite the heightened chance of a prolonged war in Iran, according to Deutsche Bank.
While riskier assets like stocks, commodities and currencies have faltered in recent weeks as investors panic about the potential for the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed, those assets have proved in recent history to be able to resist more significant selloffs, analysts led by Henry Allen, macroeconomic strategist at at the German investment bank's research unit, wrote in a note on Tuesday.
Despite markets pricing in a continued conflict in the Middle East and an increased chance of stagflation, they noted, the S&amp;P 500 SPX is close to 1.3% below its all-time high, while Europe's Stoxx 600 is within 4% of its record high and credit spreads in both the U.S. and Europe are tighter than when the war started at the end of February.
Brent crude (BRN00) (BRNN26), the global benchmark, is still hovering around the $110-a-barrel mark, and West Texas Intermediate (CL.1) (CLM26), the U.S. benchmark, is holding firmly above $100 per barrel. At the same time, bettors on prediction market Polymarket are pricing in just a 31% chance of the Strait of Hormuz reopening by the end of June and a 46% chance of it doing so by the end of July. (Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of MarketWatch.)
&#34;This seeming dislocation looks inconsistent,&#34; the analysts noted, but none of the conditions that caused major declines in risk assets in the past are currently in place.
&#34;All those previous selloffs featured some combination of persistence in the energy shock, economic data that was clearly recessionary, or aggressive central bank tightening,&#34; they wrote.
One of the first factors to watch out for is a protracted oil shock. Looking at the major crises of the past few decades, higher prices lasted for a long time. In 1973, when an Arab oil embargo hit the U.S., prices almost quadrupled and stayed there for years. In 2022, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, 12-month Brent futures climbed above $100 a barrel, although the shock was temporary. In the current situation, however, there has been a consistent gap between back-dated prices and 6-month futures.
The analysts also highlighted that data downturns have quickly followed previous energy shocks, like when the unemployment rate immediately climbed in 1973. This time, U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by over 100,000 in March and April and the global Purchasing Managers Index for April rose.
The last condition they noted is central banks entering into cycles of aggressive interest-rate hikes, as happened during the shocks of 2022 and 1979, which followed the Iranian Revolution. Neither the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank nor the Bank of Japan have tightened rates yet.
-Nora Redmond
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05-19-26 0940ET

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Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that risk assets like stocks and commodities are likely to remain resilient despite concerns over a prolonged conflict in Iran. They note that current conditions differ from past energy shocks that led to significant selloffs. The S&P 500 is close to its all-time high, and credit spreads are tighter than before the conflict began. Analysts highlight that key factors such as persistent energy shocks, recessionary economic data, and aggressive central bank tightening are not present at this time.

- Analysts at Deutsche Bank suggest that riskier assets are likely to remain resilient despite heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  
- They emphasize that past selloff conditions—such as persistent energy shocks, recessionary economic data, and aggressive central bank tightening—are not present in the current market.  
- Current indicators, including stable stock market performances and strong labor data, contrast with historical patterns, suggesting limited immediate risk to these assets.

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Don't worry about risk assets coming under pressure just yet, Deutsche Bank says