Bank of America’s May Global Fund Manager Survey landed this week with a finding that should give every semiconductor bull pause.



A record 73% of professional investors now call “long global semiconductors” the most crowded trade on the planet, up from 24% in April, the steepest one-month jump on record in the survey’s history of tracked positioning.



Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC) anchor that crowd. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH) and iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) have led every major U.S. benchmark to records since the March low, and Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday.



The iShares Semiconductor ETF also recorded 18 straight sessions of gains between March 31 and April 24 and it has rallied more than 60% year-to-date. 



BofA May Global Fund Manager Survey: % of investors naming each as #1 most crowded trade



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table><tbody><tr><td>TRADE</td><td>MAY 2026</td><td>M/M CHANGE</td></tr><tr><td>LONG GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTORS</td><td>73%</td><td>+49 PT</td></tr><tr><td>LONG MAGNIFICENT 7</td><td>14%</td><td>+3 PT</td></tr><tr><td>LONG OIL</td><td>6%</td><td>-18 PT</td></tr><tr><td>LONG EMERGING MARKETS</td><td>2%</td><td>NEW</td></tr><tr><td>LONG GOLD</td><td>1%</td><td>-13 PT</td></tr><tr><td>SHORT GLOBAL CONSUMER STOCKS</td><td>1%</td><td>FLAT</td></tr><tr><td>SHORT PRIVATE CREDIT</td><td>1%</td><td>-8 PT</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption>Data: Bank of America</figcaption></figure>



<h2>Bull Capitulation Is ‘Almost Complete’</h2>



Fund manager equity allocation surged from net 13% overweight to net 50% overweight in a single month, the largest monthly jump on record, according to Bank of America.



Cash levels dropped from 4.3% to 3.9%, the biggest cut since February 2024, triggering BofA’s contrarian sell signal for global equities.



BofA’s Bull &amp; Bear Indicator now sits at 7.8, a tick below the 8.0 line that historically marks the firm’s most reliable pullback warning. 



Only 4% of surveyed managers still expect a hard landing.



Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett‘s framing in the report is direct. 



Bull capitulation is “almost complete,” early June is “ripe for profit-taking,” and the degree of any pullback will be determined by long-end Treasury yields.



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Read Also:

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<h2>The Crowd Has Never Been This Deep In One Trade</h2>



Within that record-bullish positioning, one trade absorbed the conviction. 73% of fund managers now name “long global semiconductors” the single most crowded trade on Wall Street, up from 24% in April. 



To frame how extreme 73% is, “long Magnificent 7” peaked in the low-60s in mid-2024 and “long gold” topped near 58% earlier this year. Long semiconductors has eclipsed both. 



Add the 14% naming “long Magnificent 7” and roughly 87% of surveyed managers are pointing at the same corner of the tape.



<h2>The Bull Case Has Unresolved Cracks</h2>



The risk-on rotation rests on assumptions that have not validated. 66% of fund managers expect the Strait of Hormuz to reopen in the next few months. 



The Strait remains closed. 



Global fund managers still see Brent at $85 by year-end despite crude still near $100, and net 46% now call oil overvalued, the highest reading since August 2008. 40% name a second wave of inflation the largest tail risk, up from 26%.



The bond market is flashing a separate warning that aligns with Hartnett’s pullback framing: 62% of FMS investors expect the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield to break above 6% if rates make a big move in the next 12 months, against just 20% who see yields falling below 4%.



Allocation to technology jumped to net 33% overweight from net 14%, the highest since February 2024. 



The cyclicals-versus-defensives gap is the widest since January 2018, the month the S&amp;P 500 peaked before the volatility-spike correction that followed.



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Read Also:

Micron, AMD, Intel Stocks Could Face An Abrupt Reversal, Top AI Expert Warns




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Photo: jamesonwu1972 On Shutterstock.com

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SOXX

Bank of America's May Global Fund Manager Survey reveals that 73% of fund managers now consider 'long global semiconductors' the most crowded trade, a significant increase from 24% in April. This surge raises concerns for semiconductor bulls like Nvidia and AMD. The survey indicates a record jump in equity allocation, triggering a contrarian sell signal. BofA's chief strategist warns that the market is ripe for profit-taking, with potential pullbacks influenced by Treasury yields.

- The Bank of America May Global Fund Manager Survey reveals that 73% of investors view “long global semiconductors” as the most crowded trade, a significant jump from 24% in April.  
- Fund manager equity allocation soared from net 13% to net 50% overweight, alongside a decrease in cash levels, indicating a contrarian sell signal for global equities.  
- Concerns persist regarding unresolved risks in the market, including expectations for oil prices and inflation, with the bond market signaling potential interest rate hikes.

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Nvidia, AMD Bulls Beware — Wall Street's Most Crowded Trade Just Flashed A Sell Warning