<p><strong>Strategy Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:MSTR) is down to $165 even as TD Cowen raised its price target to $400 from $395, citing faster <strong>Bitcoin</strong> (CRYPTO: BTC) accumulation and a $1.5 billion accretive repurchase of convertible notes.</p>



<h3>Strategy Already Exceeded Q2 Bitcoin Purchase Forecast</h3>



<p>Strategy has already acquired more Bitcoin partway through Q2 than TD Cowen had modeled for the entire quarter. </p>



<p>The firm now forecasts roughly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone, lifting full-year BTC Yield projections to 19.8% from 18.2%.</p>



<p>Preferred equity issuance has dominated capital raises in Q2 with roughly $1.95 billion raised versus minimal common equity issuance. </p>



<p>Nearly all proceeds have been deployed directly into Bitcoin purchases.</p>



<p>Bitcoin per 1,000 fully diluted shares reached 2.21x as of May 17, up from 1.95x at the end of 2025. TD Cowen called the trajectory a core validation of Strategy’s financing model, with Bitcoin holdings continuing to outpace share issuance.</p>



<h3>$1.5B Convertible Note Repurchase Cleans Up Balance Sheet</h3>



<p>The second driver of the target raise was Strategy’s repurchase of roughly $1.5 billion of out-of-the-money convertible notes at an approximately 8% discount to face value.</p>



<p>TD Cowen argued the transaction reduces fully diluted share exposure while improving credit quality and lowering future refinancing risk. The firm called it an important signal of financial flexibility.</p>



<p>Strategy now holds 843,738 BTC—more than 4% of the 21 million Bitcoin supply cap—after acquiring 24,869 BTC for roughly $2.01 billion from May 11 to May 17, the largest single-week purchase this year since a 34,164 BTC buy in April.</p>



<h3>$400 Target Implies 140% Upside From Current Levels</h3>



<p>TD Cowen’s $400 price target applies a 3x multiple to 2026 BTC Dollar Gain of $15.16 billion, then adds projected year-end Bitcoin holdings of $132.9 billion and subtracts $3.5 billion in debt and $15.5 billion in preferred equity obligations.</p>



<p>MSTR closed at $166.63 on Monday, down roughly 63% from its 52-week high of $455.90, leaving TD Cowen’s target implying more than 140% upside from current levels.</p>



<h3>MSTR Breaks Below 20 EMA, Testing Critical Support</h3>



<p>Strategy dropped 6% to $165 on Monday as price broke below the critical 20 EMA at $173.64 and is now pressing directly on the 50 EMA at $161.54 and Supertrend at $158.35 cluster.</p>



<p>The golden supply zone at $190–$200 rejected price twice in two weeks. </p>



<p>Everything now hinges on $158–$162 holding as support. This EMA and Supertrend confluence is the last structural defense before price revisits the $142 demand zone below.</p>



<p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>

RIOT

GBTC

MARA

<p>Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) fell 6% to $165 despite TD Cowen raising its price target to $400, citing increased Bitcoin accumulation and a $1.5 billion convertible note repurchase. The firm forecasts 100,000 BTC purchases in Q2, raising full-year yield projections. MSTR's price is down 63% from its 52-week high, with TD Cowen's target suggesting over 140% upside. The stock is testing critical support levels, with significant implications if it breaks below $158.</p>

- Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) is currently priced at $165, despite TD Cowen raising its price target to $400 due to increased Bitcoin accumulation and a significant convertible note repurchase.  
- The firm has exceeded its Q2 Bitcoin purchase forecast, acquiring over 100,000 BTC, which raised full-year yield projections to 19.8%.  
- The target price suggests a potential upside of over 140% from current levels, although the stock is testing critical support around $158–$162 after recently dropping below its 20 EMA.

benzinga_article

Riot Platforms

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

Mara

Bitfarms Canada

Hut 8 Mining

Coinbase

Strategy

Leverage Shares 2x Cpd Acclrtd MSTRMnETF

Roundhill MSTR WeeklyPay ETF

GraniteShares 2x Long MSTR Daily ETF

T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF

WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund

Roundhill Bitcoin Covered Call Strategy ETF

Invesco Galaxy Bitcoin ETF

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund - ETF

T-REX 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF

YieldMax MSTR Short Opt Inc Stgy ETF

Defiance Leveraged Long + Inc MSTR ETF

Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF

VanEck Bitcoin ETF

NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF

Franklin Bitcoin ETF

CoinShares Bitcoin ETF

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 10.0 Perp

Microstrategy Inc Pref Shares STRC 9.0 Perp

MicroStrategy Pref Shares MSTR 8.0 Perp

MSTR Dumps 6% Despite Bullish TD Cowen Projection: What Is Going On?