Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) is scheduled to report its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday. A top analyst said that investors are increasingly focused not on whether the chipmaker beats expectations, but whether CEO Jensen Huang can convince Wall Street that the AI infrastructure boom still has years of growth ahead.



<h2>AI Supercycle Faces Its Biggest Test Yet</h2>



In a statement to Benzinga, Daniel Newman, CEO of The Futurum Group, said Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is &#34;the most consequential print of the AI cycle,&#34; arguing the company's guidance and commentary now matter more than the quarter itself.



&#34;The market has priced the company as the central nervous system of the AI economy,&#34; Newman said, adding that investors are now watching whether the AI spending surge can continue into fiscal 2028 and beyond.



Wall Street expectations have climbed above Nvidia's own guidance for the first time in this AI cycle, with analysts looking for roughly $80 billion in quarterly revenue and about $86 billion in the second-quarter guidance.



According to Newman, &#34;A clean $80B+ print is necessary. It is not sufficient.&#34;



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<h2>Blackwell, Rubin And China In Focus</h2>



Investors are also closely monitoring Nvidia's transition from its Blackwell AI platform to next-generation Rubin systems.



Newman said the key risk is whether customers delay Blackwell purchases while waiting for Rubin, potentially creating a temporary slowdown in orders.



However, he noted Nvidia's annual product cadence is designed to avoid such disruptions.



The analyst also highlighted China as a major wildcard after reports suggested Washington earlier this month cleared limited H200 chip sales to some Chinese firms.



&#34;Any language on the call about timing, framework, or unit economics for a China re-entry path is the single biggest variable for the stock,&#34; Newman said.



<h2>Why Nvidia Earnings Could Move The Entire AI Market</h2>



The analyst also said that Nvidia's earnings could influence a wide range of AI-related companies, including Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM).



Newman's base case calls for revenue between $79 billion and $81 billion, gross margins above 75% and second-quarter guidance in the $86 billion to $88 billion range — a result he believes would validate the AI &#34;supercycle&#34; narrative.



In February, Nvidia reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73% year over year and ahead of analysts' expectations of $66 billion.



Price Action: Shares of Nvidia closed Tuesday at $220.61, down 0.77% and rose 0.42% to $221.54 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro.



According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, NVDA ranks in the 98th percentile for Growth and continues to maintain a strong bullish price trend across its short, medium and long-term price trends.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/20014133/Screenshot-2026-05-20-at-8.17.50%E2%80%AFAM-1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/20014133/Screenshot-2026-05-20-at-8.17.50%E2%80%AFAM-1.png"/></figure>



Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.



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Photo Courtesy: FotoField on Shutterstock.com

NVIDIA reports after Wednesday's US close, delivering its FY27 Q1 scorecard. Consensus pegs revenue near 78B and Data Center around 73B—that's the floor; the real fireworks sit in Q2 guide: blow past 90B or settle near 85B? Wall Street has already pushed the AI narrative to a 6T market cap, with NVIDIA alone driving a sizeable chunk of this year's S&amp;P 500 gains. This print decides whether the AI golden age gets crowned, or whether the first crack in the valuation bubble finally shows.

NVIDIA reports after Wednesday's US close, delivering its FY27 Q1 scorecard. Consensus pegs revenue near 78B and Data Center around 73B—that's the floor; the real fireworks sit in Q2 guide: blow past 90B or settle near 85B? Wall Street has already pushed the AI narrative to a 6T market cap, with NVIDIA alone driving a sizeable chunk of this year's S&amp;P 500 gains. This print decides whether the AI golden age gets crowned, or whether the first crack in the valuation bubble finally shows.

NVIDIA earnings tonight, can the 6T story hold?

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Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is seen as a critical test for CEO Jensen Huang to demonstrate the longevity of the AI supercycle. Analysts expect revenue around $80 billion, with guidance for the second quarter between $86 billion and $88 billion. Investors are also focused on Nvidia's transition to next-gen Rubin systems and potential impacts from China. The earnings could significantly influence the broader AI market, affecting companies like AMD and Broadcom.

- Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) is set to release its first-quarter earnings, with investors focusing on CEO Jensen Huang's outlook for the AI infrastructure boom.  
- Top analyst Daniel Newman states that the earnings report is critical, with expectations for approximately $80 billion in quarterly revenue and second-quarter guidance up to $86 billion.  
- The earnings results could significantly impact Nvidia's stock and affect various AI-related companies, with the performance seen as a validation of the ongoing AI "supercycle."

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Nvidia Earnings No Longer About Beating Estimates, But About Whether Jensen Huang Can Prove AI Supercycle Still Has Years Left: Top Analyst