Haitong International Raises GUMING TP to HKD31.7, Maintains Outperform

Haitong International issued a report stating that GUMING (01364.HK) -0.360 (-1.600%) Short selling $51.03M; Ratio 35.012% recently held its 2026 Partner Conference. The broker believes the companys short-term high base pressure is gradually emerging, but its medium- to long-term growth strategy is clear with ample room for expansion. In terms of near-term operations, overall performance remains within a normal range, while same-store pressure objectively exists. The period from May to August will be critical, and the company will adopt multiple measures to control the decline in same-store sales. From April to May, due to weather factors and a faster-than-expected decline in food delivery demand, same-store growth slowed on a QoQ basis, and franchisee profits saw a slight decrease. However, through a return-to-dine-in strategy and narrowing delivery price gaps by raising online prices, the company improved effective revenue collection across online and offline channels. Franchisee profits remain considerable. Delivery demand has declined faster than previously expected, with delivery accounting for about 50% to 55% of total sales.In terms of product categories, coffee has become an important incremental segment. In 1Q26, coffee accounted for 15% to 20% of total cups sold, with daily sales per store previously at about 60 to 80 cups and currently around 80 to 90 cups. The year-end target is 120 cups per store per day. The breakfast scenario is also a purely incremental business. The broker believes the rollout of sixth-generation stores aligns with changes in consumer habits and the companys future business strategy.On the cost side, there are short-term disruptions from oil prices and warehousing and logistics, but these remain manageable overall. The raw material structure is relatively diversified, and declining costs of certain ingredients such as jasmine flowers, along with ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, can help offset pressures. To drive its three main business initiatives for the year, the company plans to increase subsidies for franchise discounts and renovation support, delivery promotion, coffee expansion, and new product launches and campaigns from RMB230 million in 2025 to RMB300 million in 2026. Brand promotion and user growth investment will rise from RMB300 million in 2025 to RMB400 million in 2026. Full-year profit guidance remains stable.Regarding industry competition, the tea beverage sector continues to feature multiple price tiers and brands coexisting, with relatively stable competition among leading players. Mid-tier brands expanding from over one thousand stores to ten thousand stores will face significantly greater challenges in supply chain management, regional expansion, and operations. The broker expects 2026 to mark the first year of intense competition in coffee. While coffee prices are unlikely to rebound in the short term, the overall market will expand and product supply will become more diverse. The company already has a certain first-mover advantage in the coffee segment.The broker largely maintains its 2026-2028 revenue forecasts at RMB16.5 billion, RMB20.5 billion and RMB24.5 billion, representing YoY growth of 28%, 24% and 20%, respectively. Adjusted net profit is projected at RMB3.24 billion, RMB4.01 billion and RMB5.01 billion, representing YoY growth of 26%, 24% and 25%, respectively, with adjusted net profit margins of 19.6%, 19.6% and 20.4%. Maintaining a 20x PE valuation for 2026, the corresponding reasonable target market capitalization is HKD73.6 billion. The TP is raised from HKD30.8 to HKD31.7, with an Outperform rating maintained. (ha/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-21 16:25.)