阳光男孩儿

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Selling right at the market open every day... Not a single day with a V-shaped recovery, sigh

Heading towards 20

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

The same suggestion remains

If you want to add positions now, you can choose to sell puts. Before the Q2 report, it's highly likely to range between 30-35, so you can consider selling puts after 320

The selling pressure is huge. From January 2024 to now, buying at any time in about two years

98% of the chips are at a loss

There will be strong resistance when it rises

It needs certainty in earnings reports and guidance for the stock price to be repriced

$Vistra(VST.US)

Why buy a company whose CEO sells stocks every day?

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

It is recommended to sell put options if you want to increase your position now

The selling pressure is huge. From January 2024 to now, buying at any time in about two years

98% of the chips are at a loss

There will be great resistance when it rises

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Massage is coming

SMCI has a history of over 30 years

I used AI to check the founder's concurrent role as chairman + CEO and the record of holdings reduction

No results found

From 22-25, the company's stock price went up and down like a roller coaster without any reduction in holdings

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

Big casino, jumping up and down

It's all about who gets in accurately and runs fast

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Here's some psychological comfort for everyone

Prerequisite: Never use leverage

NVIDIA dropped 70% in 2022, don't be complacent

There are many players in this field - Dell, HP, ASUS, MSI, Gigabyte, etc. - with fierce competition. SMCI is currently in the painful transition from AI server provider to AI infrastructure solution provider

Main reasons for current price drop:

1. Poor Q1 earnings and Q2 gross margin guidance made the market doubt its competitiveness and moat

2. Overvalued companies usually have monopoly characteristics like Eli Lilly, NVIDIA

3. Undervalued stocks often face cutthroat competition like HP, Dell

Priced as PC hardware company: reasonable at $5-10

Priced as high-growth AI infrastructure company: reasonable around $30

Reasons for optimism:

1. Q2 was the gross margin trough at ~6.5%, mainly dragged by low-margin $13B orders. But these strategic orders won't stay this low (reference Dell's guidance)

2. Early launch and fast implementation of DCBBS solution helps capture market share. Maintenance alone will become long-term profit at scale

3. Sovereign nations, research institutions and schools will expand purchases. SMCI's rapid DCBBS deployment gives it an edge

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

It was relatively resilient today

The PC hardware sector fell even harder

HP and Dell both dropped around 4%

You can sell coin and buy hood at any time

$IREN(IREN.US)

Next support level at 18

Never touch crypto stocks in this life

If it decouples from BTC, consider coming back later

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Currently holding 2000 shares with an average cost of 43

Mid-term target price 65, long-term target price 160

Still have some bullets left, will go all in on Jan 2027 calls if it drops to around 25

Logic: Orders will only increase, gross margin will improve over time. Currently at 0.5 P/S ratio for 2026 showing clear safety margin, normal P/S at gross margin is around 3. Once gross margin returns to double digits, 6x stock price upside would make risk/reward very attractive.

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

According to the guidelines

The annual P/S ratio for 2026 is less than 0.5

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)

Heartbroken by coin, hood is performing much better than coin

Add this to watchlist, current stock price includes too much optimistic expectation with 50x PE, really hard to buy

If there's a chance to see 16x forward PE, will open a position

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Added another 500 shares at 30.26

Will add more at 25 with the remaining bullets

$IREN(IREN.US)

If it falls below 20 again, I'll open a position

Otherwise, forget it

Buy when undervalued

Sell when overvalued

$Coinbase(COIN.US)

The stupid company management sells every day

$Vistra(VST.US)

This damn CEO sells every day

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

The buy orders are too fragile

$IREN(IREN.US)

$Coinbase(COIN.US)

$Circle(CRCL.US)

The crypto market crashed today, I'm out. Went from a $70K profit to a total loss of around $10K

Never touching crypto stocks again in this lifetime

$IREN(IREN.US)

Left, thirty thousand profit turned into ten thousand

Shrunk a lot, luckily didn't lose

$IREN(IREN.US) still has execution risks and refinancing risks, too many cards to buy, and another 60,000 units need to be purchased next year,

coupled with BTC's recent weak performance

It's hard to reach the high point in the short term

It might even fall back to around 30

BTC recovery coupled with reduced execution risks could bring it back to 80 by the end of next year

$IREN(IREN.US)

One of the most reliable management teams

Fearless with a cost of 12.5, waiting patiently

$Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US)

Can't fall any further

Missed earnings 6 times

Hope the company figures out how much it can really earn by 2026

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)

Every rally lasts no more than two months

Always traps investors

Earnings and sales always miss

Never exceeded expectations

The cars are really good

The stock is pure garbage

Has hurt investors countless times

$Vistra(VST.US)

The liquidity of this stock is really not good

$NIO Inc(NIO.US)

This miss has hurt everyone's confidence too much

Couldn't even hold at $5

See if it can reach $4, the $4 defense line is likely to hold

Buy another 5000 shares at $4