rocket Shadow

the bit nobody seems to be pricing is that the google tranches only start counting from q3, so tonight's quarter has literally zero of it in the numbers. guide above 3b and i think we run at 270. sub 250 on the guide and i am out before the open, no second chances on a 196 percent ytd name 📸

The headline number everyone quotes is the four states seeking up to 1.4 trillion in damages, but that is the ask, not a realistic outcome. US courts almost never award anywhere near the full claimed amount in cases like this, and Meta will settle or appeal long before any number that size becomes final. The more relevant risk is the discovery process itself. A former engineer already testified the company narrowed its own safety metrics, and if more internal documents like that surface before Zuckerberg testifies, the headline risk to the stock is reputational and regulatory, not really the 1.4 trillion figure itself.

Micron and SanDisk get all the memory headlines but the Intel angle from Hot Chips is more interesting long term. SK Hynix confirmed it's evaluating Intel's EMIB packaging for next gen HBM, mainly to diversify away from being fully dependent on TSMC's CoWoS capacity. This is still R&D stage, not a signed supply deal, so don't expect revenue from it for years. But if it goes anywhere, it's a real signal that Intel Foundry can win credibility from a company that has zero reason to help a rival unless the tech and pricing actually work. INTC is still down over 35 percent from its 2026 high even after this week's news.

Micron and SanDisk are both trading roughly 25 percent below their June highs after Samsung's shareholder return plan came in below what the market wanted. The mechanism is simple. Samsung's board approved 90 to 110 trillion won versus expectations closer to 140 trillion, and the immediate buyback tranche was smaller than SK Hynix's own program from earlier this month. None of that changes underlying DRAM and NAND demand. It changes sentiment around capital discipline in a sector that just had its best year in a decade. Micron is still up close to 190 percent for 2026, so this reads more like profit taking after an extreme move than a reversal of the AI storage thesis.

Meta Platforms opened its social media addiction trial in Oakland on Monday, with jury selection completed the previous week. Four states are seeking penalties of up to $1.4 trillion, and a further 29 states have joined claims under the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act.

The headline exposure is unlikely to be the operative risk. A monetary penalty is a one-time charge against a company generating substantial free cash flow. The remedy sought alongside it, court-mandated changes to how Facebook and Instagram are designed for minors, would be a permanent constraint on engagement and therefore on ad inventory.

Shares closed at $565.76, down 4.08 percent. The move appears to price the fine rather than the remedy. $Meta Platforms(META.US)

serious question for the people holding Microsoft here, are you sizing it as a growth position or as your defensive bucket now? i genuinely cannot tell anymore which one it is supposed to be in my portfolio 🫢

azure crossed 100b annualised and still grew 43%, and copilot is at 30m paid seats with net adds more than doubling. citi went to 600 from 570. added 15 shares monday, cleanest AI story on my screen 💪

intel reports thursday and rbc just put out a q2 beat call. up 163% ytd already so plenty is priced in, but the turnaround finally has some numbers behind it. small position into the print, this one could gap either way

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL.US)$ got shredded as the PHLX semi index fell 2.6% and the 3x turned that into a much bigger loss. this is exactly the tape leverage hates, a sharp sector down day. i scalp it intraday only, never hold overnight, and definitely not through a week where TSMC capex and CXMT glut fears are whipping the whole group. the decay plus this volatility is an account killer. respect it.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL.US)$ got hammered as semis broke ranks and sold off. this is a split tape, index up but chips down, which is the worst possible environment for a 3x chip ETF because it just decays sideways-to-down. i scalp it intraday, never hold overnight, and definitely not into a TSMC print this afternoon. respect the leverage or it respects you.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL.US)$ had a monster day on the CPI relief plus chip rip, and that's exactly when it's most dangerous. the up days lure you into holding through the chop that decays you to nothing. this week alone semis went down hard then up hard, a 3x through that is a blender. i scalp it intraday only, flat overnight. respect the decay.

if you're holding $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL.US)$ into tonight you're insane, respectfully. CPI drops the same morning five banks report, oil's ripping, Waller's floating a hike, and semis just got crushed. that's four ways for a 3x leveraged chip ETF to blow up in one session. i scalp it intraday only and i'm 100% flat into the print. the decay plus event risk is a death sentence.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X (SOXL.US)$ loves a week like last week and hates a week like this one. semis are ripping on SK Hynix but CPI Tuesday could reverse the whole thing in an hour, and the 3x cuts both ways brutally. i only scalp this intraday, never hold overnight, and definitely not through a CPI print. the leverage plus event risk is a widowmaker combo.

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) bounced with the chip complex but it's still a second-tier AI name that trades on the group's mood, not its own merits right now. custom silicon is a real story long term, and the Meta self-chip news is a reminder custom ASIC demand is growing. i want it to hold $240 and prove the base before i add. riding the group, watching the level.

ok i chased the SpaceX inclusion hype and now it's at 149, a fresh all-time low below the IPO price 🤡 classic. bought the most-hyped index event of the year and it went straight down. sold my trade position for a small loss, lesson relearned on forced-buying events. the Colossus 2 lawsuit isn't helping. done with this one for now.

the analyst quiet period ending on the same day as Nasdaq-100 inclusion is the detail most people missed. the buy ratings coming today are not priced in the same way the passive flows were. first price target above IPO could be the catalyst that holds the $SpaceX(SPCX.US) pop. small position, still 28% below the ATH, giving it room.

the $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and Palantir tie up for classified government AI is the part nobody is pricing. sovereign and air gapped deployments are sticky enterprise revenue, not just one off chip sales. this is how the moat widens quietly while everyone argues about the bubble

every time I think $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) is too expensive it goes up another 10 percent. my kopi uncle got in way before me and won't stop reminding me at every gathering. skill issue (mine) 🤣

Microsoft down 20% in June and 35% YTD is wild for a megacap. AI capex worries plus the Italy antitrust noise. tempting value here but I want to see capex discipline before I back up the truck. small adds only.

Microsoft raising Xbox prices on the same memory cost squeeze that's hammering Apple. The AI capex bill is starting to show up in places nobody was looking. watching how much of this margin pressure they can actually pass on 👀

mixed bag on googl leh. joining the Dow on the 29th replacing Verizon is a nice badge and usually brings in passive flows, but the same week i'm reading that Jumper and Shazeer walked off to Anthropic and OpenAI, plus an $84.75B raise that dilutes me and Gemini 3.5 Pro reportedly slipping. around $345 the tape is doing nothing for a reason. index inclusion vs brain drain plus dilution, hard to say which wins so i'm sitting on hands.

GOOGL down almost 4% to around $350 and it was down 7 intraday at one point. Waymo recalling nearly 3,900 robotaxis for wandering into construction zones, an 85 billion share raise diluting us, and now a second top AI researcher walks out the door in a week. when it rains it pours sia. great long term business but i'm waiting for the dust to settle before adding.

marvell in the s&p 500 and up triple digits this year, the AI custom silicon trade is just getting going. jensen literally floated it as a future trillion dollar name. not fading this one 🚀 $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US)