Fattycat

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

🏆[Weekly]: Bitcoin Consolidation: Bulls Defensive as Macro Uncertainty Lingers

Bitcoin is currently trading at $76,822, entering a critical consolidation phase. After retreating from May highs, the market is searching for a bottom.

🔷Technical Snapshots

The Daily and 4H charts show a cooling trend with price action compressing.

🟢Structure: On the Daily chart, BTC is hovering near the 20-day SMA ($79,014). It has recently bounced off the lower Bollinger Band support.

🟢Support & Resistance: Key support is firm at $75,039. Resistance has lowered to the $78,727–$79,000 range.

🟢Momentum: RSI on the 1D chart sits at 50.21, signaling a neutral state. However, the 4H RSI shows a slight recovery from oversold territory, suggesting a short-term bounce is in progress.

🔷Fundamental Snapshots

🟢Clarity Law & Regulation: The market is digesting the “Clarity Law.” While it promises long-term institutional safety, short-term compliance hurdles have caused a temporary lull in aggressive ETF inflows.

🟢Fed Policy Uncertainty: The new Fed Chairman’s “wait-and-see” approach regarding interest rates has introduced a risk-off sentiment. Investors are hesitant to go “all-in” until a clearer roadmap for 2026 cuts emerges.

🟢Geopolitical & Accumulation: Despite geopolitical tensions causing brief volatility, on-chain data shows heavy accumulation by “Mega-Whales” at these levels, suggesting $75K is viewed as a value zone.

🔷Analyst Sentiment

Sentiment has shifted from “Extreme Greed” to “Cautious.” Analysts are divided: some view this as a healthy “re-accumulation” phase before a run to $90K, while others warn that a break below $74,500 could trigger a deeper correction to $68K.

🔷The Verdict

Neutral. BTC is in a “wait-and-watch” mode. If it can reclaim and hold $79,000, the bullish trend resumes. Failure to hold $75,000 would signal a shift in market structure toward a bearish correction.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.😘

$Gold.com(GOLD.US)

🏆 Weekly Gold (XAUUSD) :Major Trendline Breakdown

🔷 Market Overview

Gold suffered a sharp liquidation this week, closing down -0.74% at $4,509.69. The daily chart confirms a devastating technical breakdown below the long-term blue ascending trendline

Which I mentioned 2 weeks ago. The bears have completely broken the defense.

🔷 Technical Snapshots

🟢 Bollinger Bands (Daily)

Price sits at $4,509.69, slicing through the lower band before settling just above $4,455.29. The middle band ($4,610.59) is now distant overhead resistance.

On the 4H frame, the price is locked beneath the middle band ($4,516.20), with a falling upper cap at $4,560.61.

🟢 RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Daily RSI has plummeted to 39.98, confirming accelerating bearish momentum with room to slide into oversold territory (30).

The 4H RSI is at 42.54, showing dominant seller control. Any upward ticks remain heavily capped by a falling yellow signal line (45.59).

🟢 Support & Resistance

Immediate support: $4,471.80 (4H lower BB) and $4,455.29. Major support: $4,300.

Resistance: $4,516.20, $4,560.61, and $4,610.59.

🔷 Fundamental Snapshots

The narrative has turned toxic for non-yielding gold. Broad macroeconomic data continues to run hot, feeding expectations that the Fed will retain a hawkish stance.

Interest rates are projected to remain “higher for longer” to combat sticky inflation, global capital is aggressively fleeing safe havens for yield, sparking institutional gold liquidations.

🔷 Next Week: Key U.S. Economic Data to Watch

🟢 CB Consumer Confidence - 26 May 2026

🟢 Preliminary GDP, Unemployment Claims and Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s favorite gauge)- 28 May 2026

🔷 The Verdict

Strong Bearish bias. The structural loss of the key trendline shifts the macro picture to the downside. Expect relief rallies to be sold into and a daily candle close back above $4,610.59 that stabilises the market.

Not financial advice. Practice risk management.😉

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

Next Tuesday (May 26) is a critical milestone for Xiaomi as they report their Q1 2026 earnings. I am particularly focused on management’s forward profit guidance and updates regarding the overseas expansion strategy for their EV lineup.

The Current Valuation Snapshots are as below:

1️⃣ P/E Ratio (TTM): 16.81 (Trading below the Asian Tech Industry average of ~21.5x, offering strong relative value)

2️⃣ P/B Ratio: 2.63 (Reflects solid asset backing from its massive smartphone/AIoT inventory and cash)

3️⃣ P/S Ratio: 1.43x (Indicating the market is valuing its massive RMB 100B+ quarterly revenue engine quite conservatively)

4️⃣ Forward P/E: 20.9x (Factoring in near-term margin digestion from the EV ramp-up).

Given the weekend news of renewed Chinese regulatory pressure on cross-border brokerages, are you buying at current valuations or waiting for a potential market dip on Monday? Let’s discuss😉.

[Week 5] Portfolio Health Check: Riding the Volatility Wave 🌊

1️⃣ Current Holdings

I continued to adjust my weightings and leaning further into my high-conviction plays. My sector distributions are:

🟢 Automobiles: 30.48% (BYD)

🟢 Interactive Media & Services: 22.82% (Tencent & Bilibili)

🟢 Broadline Retail: 23.64% (Alibaba & JD)

🟢 Tech Hardware & Peripherals: 17.11% (Xiaomi)

BYD is my largest single position at over 30% now. This reflect my increased commitment to the EV leader despite recent market swings.

2️⃣ Earnings Watch

The heavy lifting of earnings season is almost done! Xiao Mi will be the last one for me to watch.

This is the big one left, 26 May 2026. I am eager to see how the market reacts to their latest smartphone shipments and EV progress. Bilibili just reported and I am disappointed with the share price reaction😣.

3️⃣ Portfolio Reaction

It has been a tough week as the sea of red returns. Most of my holdings are facing a pullback:

• Alibaba (+14.54%) and JD.com (+5.43%) remain in the green.

• Bilibili (-17.04%) and BYD (-9.84%) took the hardest hits this week.

• Tencent (-4.70%) and Xiaomi (-5.57%) are also under pressure.

Overall, the portfolio is being tested by market-wide volatility but my core “Retail” anchors are keeping the ship afloat.😁

4️⃣ Next Plan

Patience is key. I added BYD and Bilibili this week, “averaging down” on positions. I strongly believe in for the long haul.

My next move is to hold steady through the Xiaomi earnings. I am pausing any further buying for now to maintain a healthy cash buffer in case the market dip deepens.🤣

5️⃣ Risk Check

Concentration in BYD has crept back up to 30.48%, which I need to monitor closely.

My top two holdings (BYD & Tencent) now make up 51.46% of the portfolio. I admitted that I am better diversified than in Week 3, the heavy HK/China tech exposure remains my primary risk.

Staying disciplined and looking past the short-term noise! 😌

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has around S$2.1 billion invested in Air India following the Vistara-Air India merger.

As of the last financial year, the carrying value of this investment had already fallen significantly and SIA recognised substantial losses from Air India’s weak performance.

Given Air India’s continued operational challenges, higher jet fuel prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, further impairment risks or additional losses cannot be ruled out in the current financial year.

In my own view, Singapore investors holding SIA should be prepared for the possibility of another weaker earnings this financial year. At this stage, I do not see a near-term turnaround for Air India, especially with the aviation industry facing rising fuel costs and intense competition.

🚀 THE SPACEX IPO IS OFFICIAL!

SpaceX filed its S-1 with the SEC to go public on the Nasdaq (Ticker: SPCX) on June 12, 2026. Seeking a $2 Trillion valuation (a 125x revenue multiple on its $18.67B consolidated 2025 revenue).

This is the largest IPO in history, aiming to raise $75 Billion.

🚨 THE NUMBERS & PLOT TWIST

While SpaceX posted a $4.94B net loss, it is now an AI and space titan following its blockbuster merger with xAI.

🟢Starlink Cash Cow: Pulled in $11.4B in revenue and $4.4B in operating profit for 2025, crossing 10M subscribers.

🟢AI Money Pit: Profits are immediately funneled into tech, with a massive $12.7B burned on AI data centers (like the Colossus cluster) last year.

👑 THE MUSK ECONOMY

Elon Musk retains 85.1% voting power. His aggressive board milestones include launching 100 gigawatts of space-based AI compute annually and establishing a 1-million-person Mars colony.

WHAT’S NEXT?

Starship V3: The 12th test flight is imminent, aiming for aviation-like rapid reusability and a 100-metric-ton payload capacity.

Retail Access: Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, and SoFi will offer IPO allocations.

At a historic $2T valuation, are you buying into this space-AI dream or is the AI cash burn too risky?

$SpaceX(SpaceX.NA)

👇 Let’s chat below!

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

The data presented in this infographic is based on NVIDIA’s Q1 FY2027 earnings report, released this morning. I hope it helps highlight key information useful for investment research and decision making.

Based on the figures reported, it seem that AI spending is a structural shift and not a cyclical bubble.

Nvidia has just proven this by announcing a massive $80B stock buyback and 25x dividend increase.

Management is signaling supreme confidence that their cash machine is highly sustainable as they transition to next-gen “Rubin” chips later this year. 🚀 cheers.🍻

$BABA-W(09988.HK)

Alibaba’s new Zhenwu M890 AI chip is delivering 3 times the performance for agent workloads, strengthens its semiconductor independence amid U.S. curbs.

With shares trading at HKD128.10, a market cap of approximately HKD 2.46 trillions, the stock remains ~31% below the 52 weeks high despite a P/E of ~20.5, offering compelling value.

As a committed shareholder, I believe in Alibaba’s innovation, its driven recovery and long-term growth that reinforce my conviction to hold.😁

Welcome OpenAI’s commitment to invest in Singapore🤗.

Singapore needs is quality investment. We need this type of Industry that create high value-added jobs for Singaporean, strengthen innovation and help keep our Singapore dollar strong😁💪🏽

I believe Sea Limited, Shopee, stands out because of its long-standing and multi-faceted strategic partnership with OpenAI.

Other companies that could also benefit from deeper collaboration with OpenAI include local banks, Singapore Airlines, and Grab.

$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

⏰Xiaomi Update: Retesting Support – Trade Cautiously Ahead of Earnings

Last reviewed: 21 April 2026. Current price: HKD 30.14

Back in late March and April update, i flagged HKD 30.77 as a strong buy zone. Now in May, price has dipped to HKD 30.14, revisiting critical support and with Q1 2026 earnings looming large.

🔷Technical Analysis

🟢 Bollinger Bands: Price is pressing the lower band (~HKD 29.50–29.95) on 4H/Daily charts, signaling deep short-term oversold conditions. Bands are compressing, hinting at a volatility squeeze.

🟢RSI: Daily RSI at 40.74, 4H at 40.31 – oversold but no bullish divergence yet; downward momentum slowing, not reversed.

🟢Trend: Downtrend from HKD 60 is mature but no clear reversal confirmation.

🔷Fundamentals & Key Updates

🟢Upcoming Q1 2026 Earnings: Results are due on 22 May 2026. The market is focusing on smartphone margin recovery, IoT growth and EV (SU7) delivery/profitability updates. Expect heightened volatility around the release.

🟢Share Buybacks: Management confidence remains strong, with ongoing repurchases under the HK$2.5B program, forming a solid floor near current levels.

🟢Analyst View: Consensus is still Buy and overweight (targets HKD 40–55) but some have trimmed near-term estimates, citing cautiousness on margin pressures.

⚠️ Verdict: Cautious Trading & Measured Accumulation

This is a value zone but trade carefully ahead of earnings.

✅ Strong Support: HKD 29.50–30.00 (backed by buybacks)

🎯 Targets: HK$34.50 → HK$40.00

Good risk-reward but let price and earnings confirm the bounce first.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.

I have decided to share more of my perspective on Nvidia.

Self-declaration: I am not a fans on Nvidia so I am approaching this with a neutral stance 🤭.

Market consensus points to another quarter of strong YoY growth, largely fueled by sustained demand for its data center and AI chips. Analysts expect both revenue and earnings per share to exceed the levels reported in the same quarter last year.

That said, all eyes will be on any signals about the future pace of demand, potential supply chain constraints and the impact of changing export regulations.

As always, actual results may differ from these expectations. There is also a possibility Nvidia’s share price could decline after earnings. Becareful if you trade CFDs or options. Many may price in a "sell on news" scenario.😉

Fed meeting minutes are out tomorrow morning. The market is showing signs of instability and wobbling right now.

Please be careful with your trades. With US 30-year yields at a 19-year high, institutional investors are likely to buy bonds instead of equities. That could cause less liquid stocks to collapse.

Stay cautious. I will sit on the sidelines until we get a clearer message from the new Fed.😁

$Bilibili(BILI.US)

Below are the key metrics from Bilibili’s 1Q 2026 results and it is a beat!

🟢Total Revenue: RMB 7.47 billion

(vs. estimate RMB 7.46B)

🟢 Adjusted EPS: RMB 1.31 (vs. estimate RMB 1.15)

AI is at the core of theirs strategy! 🤖

Powering better engagement, smarter monetisation and high-quality content.

Bilibili’s roadmap ahead:

🎯 Targeting 45% Gross Margin

🎯 Targeting 15–20% Operating Profit Margin

Bilibili remains the top destination for China’s young digital generation.

$BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)

I have just added more BYD shares today. I am doubling down on my conviction.

Looking at the latest April 2026 global Price to Sales (P/S) data, the picture is clear:

1️⃣ Global Auto Manufacturers Avg: ~1.0x

2️⃣ Traditional OEMs (Toyota, VW, etc.): ~0.5x – 0.9x

3️⃣ Pure-Play EV Startups (NIO, XPeng, Li Auto): ~2.0x – 4.0x

4️⃣ BYD: ~1.1x

As the world’s #1 NEV seller by volume, BYD currently trades nearly in line with the mature traditional auto average (~1.0x P/S). This is not where a market leading tech-integrated EV player should be.

A ~1.1x P/S means the market is pricing BYD like a slow-growth legacy manufacturer.

The market is ignoring its leadership, scale, and battery tech edge. To me, this represents a deep discount and not fair value.

I see strong upside ahead and believe this is an attractive accumulation zone. Added more, staying convicted for the long run. 😁

Watch out for tomorrow’s Fed meeting minutes. There are many uncertainties surrounding what Kevin Warsh may signal regarding future rate decisions. I expect markets to trade cautiously before further movement.😉

Today is also Bilibili’s Q1 2026 earnings release. I will be closely watching the company’s earnings performance and strategic direction as it could influence my next investment.🤭

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

100,000 blocks remain until the next bitcoin halving 🤗. Bullish or Bearish 🤔?

$Bilibili(BILI.US)

I bought more Bilibili shares last week. With the stock down nearly 38% in just three months, the recent sell-off looks overextended.

I am confident the upcoming earnings will validate this entry point.

My conviction aligns with significant institutional buying recorded earlier this month:

1️⃣ CSOP Asset Management: 2.15M shares ( 1 May 2026)

2️⃣ Goldman Sachs: 3.07M shares (4 May 2026)

3️⃣ JPMorgan Chase & Co: 3.90M shares (4 May 2026)

Backing my own analysis on this one. I buy when others are fearful.

$PETROCHINA(00857.HK)$CNOOC(00883.HK)

⛽ PetroChina (0857.HK) vs CNOOC (0883.HK): Which Chinese Oil Giant Looks Better Today?

China’s major oil companies continue to trade at relatively cheap valuations despite generating strong cash flows and attractive dividends. But not all energy giants are built the same.

Among the big three are PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinopec. Retail Investors who are keen to invest in these counters should focus on balance sheet quality, profitability and resilience in a slower-growth China economy.

🔷Fundamental Snapshot

PetroChina (0857.HK)

🟢Large integrated oil & gas business

🟢Strong natural gas growth segment

🟢Stable cash flow and attractive dividends

🟢More defensive due to diversified operations

🟢Moderate leverage

CNOOC (0883.HK)

🟢Offshore upstream oil producer

🟢Lowest production cost among Chinese peers

🟢Net cash balance sheet

🟢ROE around 15–16%

🟢Strong dividend profile

🔷Valuation Snapshot

PetroChina

1️⃣Current P/E around 7–9x

2️⃣High dividend yield

3️⃣Cheap but carries China SOE discount

CNOOC

1️⃣Current P/E around 8–9x

3️⃣EV/EBITDA around 3.8x

4️⃣Debt to equity only ~0.08x

While both stocks look inexpensive compared to global oil majors, CNOOC stands out for its stronger balance sheet and higher operational quality.

🔷The Verdict

✅ Best overall quality: CNOOC

✅ More defensive integrated play: PetroChina

⚠️ Weakest structurally: Sinopec

If oil prices remain supportive, both could continue delivering solid dividends. But from a pure fundamentals perspective, CNOOC currently appears to offer the better risk-reward profile among Chinese oil majors

Personal opinion. Not financial advice. Do your own DD.😁

$BTC/USD(BTCUSD.HAS)

🏆 [Weekly] Bitcoin Pauses: Correction or Consolidation Amid Macro & Regulatory Clouds?

Bitcoin trades at $77,888, stalling at the $79,340–$82,959 resistance zone. The daily chart signals fading momentum, compounded by major fundamental shifts.

🔷Technical Snapshots

1️⃣ Structure: Price broke below the mid-Bollinger Band ($79,340), testing the 20-day SMA.

2️⃣ Key Levels: Critical support at $75,721 (lower band); a close below shifts focus to $70K–$68K. Resistance at $79,340.

3️⃣ Momentum: RSI dropped from 60 to 48.04, losing bullish steam but not yet oversold.

4️⃣Trend: Uptrend from March lows holds only if $75K support defends.

🔷Fundamental Snapshots

🟢 Regulation: Clarity Law: New U.S. crypto legislation aims to define assets and set rules, bringing long-term certainty but near-term compliance uncertainty, cooling institutional inflows.

🟢 Geopolitical Risk: Rising tensions (Middle East, trade frictions) spark safe-haven rotation into cash/gold, weighing on risk assets like BTC.

🟢 Fed Policy Uncertainty: New Fed Chair signals data-dependent policy, pushing rate cut bets to later in 2026; higher-for-longer rates pressure non-yielding assets.

🟢 ETF Flows: Inflows slowed sharply, with occasional outflows as institutions pause amid macro/regulatory fog.

🟢 Accumulation: Whales/LTHs hold, but buying has stalled with no distribution and indecision.

🔷The Verdict

Neutral / Cautiously Bullish.Technically trend is up but fragile. And that most analysts expect a $75K retest before a bounce; a break below $74K risks deeper correction. Long-term bulls await regulatory clarity and rate cuts to re-enter.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD.😁

💡Jerome Powell Exits, Kevin Warsh Takes Over: What It Means for the Economy🤔

🔷 Key Transition Dates

Friday, 15 May 2026, marks Jerome Powell’s last day in office. Kevin Warsh is set to be officially sworn in as Federal Reserve Chair on Monday, 18 May 2026.

There are reasons to be cautious about how he will perform in the role.

🔷 Buffett’s Silence Speaks Volumes

At the latest Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, Warren Buffett praised Powell’s tenure, noting his work “helped me sleep better.”

But he made no mention of Warsh, nor offered broader comments on the Fed. This silence has left observers wondering about Buffett’s view of Warsh, especially his independence and readiness for the tough road ahead.

🔷A Tough Economic Hand to Play

The task awaiting Warsh next week is demanding. The latest economic backdrop includes:

1️⃣30-year Treasury yields above 5%

2️⃣Real wages down ~0.2% YoY (3.8% core CPI vs 3.6% nominal wage growth)

3️⃣CPI +3.8% YoY (highest since May 23)

4️⃣PPI index +6% YoY (highest since Dec 22)

5️⃣Core PCE Price Index +2.8% YoY

6️⃣Gas prices +28.5% YoY

7️⃣Brent crude oil prices are up ~ +75% to +80% YoY

8️⃣ Jet fuel: ~$163/bbl → +81% YoY

⚖️ Politics & Policy in Focus

Appointed by President Trump, Warsh faces perceptions of pressure to cut rates. Analysts are watching to see if he leans on quantitative tightening to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet. One of the best way for him to balance inflation control with political expectations.

🔷 Markets Are Watching Next Wednesday

The release of Fed meeting minutes next week will be critical. It will set the tone for the stock markets. Uncertainty remains over Warsh’s stance on interest rates and whether he can steer the economy through these challenges effectively.

What do you think will be Warsh’s biggest test in his first months as Fed Chair? Will there be any interest rates cut in coming FOMC meeting?