Dolphin Research
Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Dolphin Research
After $Meta Platforms(META.US) began weighing compute leasing, it stoked worries that the compute supply chain may be peaking. While the market debated whether this was a stopgap or a long-term strategy, Meta answered with three concrete moves: it is serious about the compute biz.
Expanding data centers is the most straightforward prep. Mass-producing in-house ASICs aims to cut cost and lift ROI.
The newly launched LLM, Muse Spark 1.1, is the true upside surprise in Dolphin Research's view. These three changes will likely push near-term Capex higher...
Memory is one of the hottest—and most crowded—plays in global tech right now. AI has ignited HBM, DRAM, and NAND all at once, sending shares of SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron up several times over in six months.
Just as the frenzy peaked, the market suddenly reversed, and the memory leaders sold off sharply from their highs. The turn was abrupt.It was exactly at this 'heated-then-chilled' moment that SK hynix, one of the industry's true heavyweights, brought its stock to Nasdaq. On Jul 10, SK hynix ADRs officially began trading in the U.S. market...0710 ｜Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $TENCENT(00700.HK) There are reports that Tencent, together with Sequoia China and ZhenFund, plans to buy back 100% of Manus from Meta at the original price of $2 bn. The deal would be executed via a consortium.
Tencent would contribute the largest share of capital and become the largest shareholder. It would remain a minority investor and is not seeking control.Meta’s acquisition of Manus was terminated following a security review. Manus focuses on autonomous general intelligence (AGI) and leads domestic peers in commercialization. The transaction is still under negotiation...0709 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) NBS: Jun CPI +1.0% YoY, -0.3% MoM; core CPI also +1.0% YoY. Food prices fell YoY, while non-food ticked up slightly, and services consumption stayed resilient. PPI rose +4.1% YoY.
Household consumption demand is recovering slowly, a near-term tailwind for baijiu, retail, and services consumption. However, softer food prices cap the agriculture sector's beta. The policy backdrop remains accommodative, leaving room for follow-on growth-stabilization measures.
Space-based data centers are not just the linchpin of SpaceX's grand narrative.
They also represent the largest real-option value in its future valuation.0708 | Dolphin Research Focus: Macro/Sector.
U.S. OFAC revoked the 60-day general license for Iranian oil transactions rolled out in Jun, allowing only wind-down deliveries through Jul 17; Iranian crude exports are fully banned thereafter.Washington cited Iranian attacks on merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and failure to honor a ceasefire as the drivers of the policy reversal. It concurrently launched military strikes against Iran.Post-announcement, Brent and WTI jumped over 5% intraday, reinforcing expectations of tighter global crude supply. Near term, this is a positive for E&P and tanker names, while Mideast geopolitical risk is heating up again...Since the open, Alibaba rallied sharply. Beyond a broad rebound in HK stocks, the main catalyst was Alibaba's freshly released Q2 results preview, which included several positives; details below:
1) E-com remains the laggard, with CMR expected to decline by a high-single-digit % YoY; excluding changes in revenue recognition scope, it should be flat to slightly up YoY. Profit is expected to dip slightly YoY.
However, this has been well anticipated, and the sustained share-price weakness has already reflected, if not over-discounted, this setup.2) Cloud was the standout, with next-quarter revenue growth expected to accelerate to Approx. 45%, ahead of the market's just-over-40% pace. While the Qwen model is not yet best-in-class, cloud growth remains strong.Benefiting from a higher MaaS mix and in-house chips, cloud OPM is also expected to improve notably to above 10%, broadly mirroring global cloud peers.3) A secondary positive: next-quarter food-delivery losses are expected to narrow materially to around RMB 10bn. This is consistent with Meituan's Q2 UE trending sharply better, potentially turning positive.Overall, e-com is clearly weakening, while cloud and AI performance continues to improve, even if the foundation model is not an obvious leader. Delivery-war participants are collectively cutting losses. These trends are broadly in line with Dolphin Research and market expectations and do not signal a thesis change.The key point: over the past month-plus, Alibaba's share price fell from around HK$130 to below HK$90, an overshoot in a short window that merits some valuation repair. Looking ahead, medium-to-long-term upside still depends on a modest domestic cyclical turn in H2 and on whether Alibaba's foundation model and chip capabilities can regain industry leadership.$Alibaba(BABA.US) $BABA-W(09988.HK)
$Broadcom(AVGO.US) shares have trended lower recently, pressured by chatter around 'Meta selling compute capacity' and by key downstream customers exploring alternate supply options. The former looks like a market-beta overhang, while the latter stokes company-specific alpha concerns.
Initially, investor interest in AVGO centered on its potential to counterbalance Nvidia's ecosystem. Now Broadcom is facing similar questions itself...
0707 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector
Global semis have sold off in recent days, though HK and A-share semis edged up today. In U.S. pre-market, Micron and peers are still sliding.Trillion-scale expansion plans by top memory makers have stoked concerns about future overcapacity. Morgan Stanley flagged chip rally momentum peaking, with flows rotating to hyperscalers.Adding Meta’s move to lease idle compute (cf. Dolphin Research: 'Compute too pricey — is Meta flipping the table?') further weakens hardware demand expectations. Prior winners are seeing concentrated profit-taking.Near term, this pressures sentiment across memory and advanced equipment. But the long-term thesis of AI compute scarcity remains intact...Last week, Bloomberg reported that $Meta Platforms(META.US) is building a cloud infra biz and plans to lease compute externally.
The single headline slammed Neocloud—an AI hardware vendor heavily exposed to Meta—and kicked off an 'excess compute' narrative. Bearish sentiment spread, and even storage names with the strongest recent fundamentals got hit by panic selling.Bottom line, Dolphin Research thinks: (1) judging by the day’s drawdown, the selloff likely overshot; yesterday’s move looked like a chain reaction in a crowded long tape once signs emerged that a short thesis might be getting validated. (2) At the same time...🐬 Stock 1, $TENCENT(00700.HK) WorkBuddy, Tencent's breakout enterprise agent, continues to see strong traction. Today Tencent simultaneously unveiled Hunyuan Hy3 and open-sourced it under Apache 2.0. The 295B-parameter MoE (21B active) supports a 256K context window and delivers agent/coding prowess on par with flagships that have 2–5x the parameters.
Pricing was cut again and tightly aligned with WorkBuddy, lifting task resolution from 72% to 90%. With a model–application flywheel in place, Tencent is pushing down the deployment cost of office AI...On the surface, it sells fried chicken and pizza. In essence, it sells a hard-to-replicate operating system built for low cost, high efficiency, and high repeat purchase.
SpaceX is making its costliest bet ever
0630 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The National Bureau of Statistics reported this morning that Jun manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up 30bps MoM and back in expansion.
The production index printed 51.4 and new orders 51.2, both improving.Sentiment recovered among large and mid-sized firms, with high-tech manufacturing PMI leading at 53.5.
Only small and micro firms remained in contraction, while input costs continued to decline.The data validate marginal supply-demand improvement in domestic manufacturing, a positive for sentiment in high-end manufacturing and the equipment sector.
However, the recovery in domestic demand remains uneven...In Part I, we unpacked SoFi's business framework and identified its growth engines: expansion of the Loan Platform Biz. (LPB) and the revival of student lending.
In Part II, guided by Muddy Waters' short case, we surfaced several 'hidden wounds' — shifting credit losses on/off balance sheet to manage the NPL ratio, profit inflation from fair value accounting, and equity dilution.Put together, a somewhat contradictory picture emerges: despite inherent flaws under constant market scrutiny, SoFi still spiked to a $42bn market cap in H2 2025...Jun 29 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) Per U.S. officials, the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause reciprocal strikes, with talks to resume on 6/30 in Doha, Qatar, shifting the focus from the nuclear file to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The session originally slated for Switzerland was relocated amid an escalation.Recent attacks on merchant shipping in the strait had pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations. The current pause should ease the geopolitical risk premium near term, a positive for global growth stocks.That said, core disputes over the nuclear issue and U.S. troop deployments in the Middle East remain unresolved, leaving any truce fragile. If the Doha talks reach a transit consensus, the energy sector likely stays under pressure while consumer and tech valuation recovery continues; if talks break down...0625 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) Qualcomm unveiled the Dragonfly C1000 CPU and AI300 accelerator, with mass production slated for 2028. It has secured orders from Meta and other hyperscalers, and guided 2027 data-center revenue to $5bn.
Qualcomm moving into Nvidia's turf looks inevitable; the key differentiator is power efficiency. Amon noted that 'the bottleneck for cloud providers has shifted from chip cost to power,' a sweet spot for mobile SoC houses built over the past two decades...Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of QCOM 2026 Investor Day. Key financial highlights are as follows.
Shareholder returns: $40 bn returned to shareholders over the past five years, and 30% of shares repurchased and retired over the past decade. Looking ahead, dividend growth will stay in the low to mid single digits, with most FCF returned to shareholders.Financial targets were materially raised. The FY29 non-handset revenue target was lifted to $40 bn from $22 bn set 18 months ago, nearly doubling...Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY26 Q1 earnings call for $Trip.com(TCOM.US). For the earnings analysis, please see 'Before the regulatory crackdown hits, does Trip.com have one last leg down?'
I. Core info recap 1) Core financials: Q1 FY26 total net revenue was RMB 16.2bn (+17% YoY), slightly above market expectations (RMB 15.8bn; ~2% beat). Non-GAAP diluted EPS per ADS was RMB 5.73 (~$0.83). As of Mar 31, 2026...
Under a regulatory overhang, $Trip.com(TCOM.US) finally released its long-delayed Q1 results on Jun 25. Overall, the quarter was solid, with revenue growth and profitability slightly ahead of expectations.
The regulatory situation remains unresolved, with no official response to date. The bigger issue is that the release directly guides Q2 revenue growth of 3%–8%, with profit to be affected, indicating regulation is starting to bite.
Key details: 1) Revenue growth slowed. Group net revenue for Q1 was approx. RMB 16.2bn...
In 2026, the AI hardware hot spot has shifted from compute to memory. As AI trades in U.S. equities start to wobble, Micron’s prints have turned into the new bellwether. $Micron Tech(MU.US) reported after-market on Jun 24 (FQ3 FY26 for the quarter ended end-May), and it delivered, taking up the mantle as the AI infra standard-bearer.
Results speak for themselves: broad-based strength. Key takeaways: 1) Headline results: revenue of $41.5bn, up 74% QoQ, marking a second consecutive quarter with 70%+ QoQ growth...
Below is Dolphin Research's compilation of Micron Technology's FY26 Q3 earnings call Trans.
I. Core takeaways from the print.1) FQ4 guidance (record): revenue of $50 bn (±$1 bn), GPM about 86%, and OpEx around $1.65 bn.
EPS guided to a record $31 (±$1), based on approx. 1.15 bn shares. Tax rate ~15%.The FQ4 GPM guide already factors in a clear slowdown in price increases.
For FY27, OpEx is expected to rise by about $1 bn to expand R&D.Trip.com 1Q26 First Take: likely under regulatory overhang, the company finally released its delayed Q1 results. Overall, three takeaways stand out: 1) results remained solid with healthy revenue growth and profits; 2) the regulatory review is ongoing, with final remediation and any penalties still undisclosed; 3) management guided next-quarter revenue growth to just 3%–8%, with profitability to be hit as well, a post-pandemic low that signals regulatory impact starting to bite.
Revenue grew ~17% YoY, a modest slowdown from the 20%+ pace in the prior quarter but above the 15% street view. GPM fell ~90bps YoY, but expenses, especially marketing, came in well below expectations, lifting earnings. Adj. OP exceeded RMB 4.6bn (+10% YoY), beating the RMB 4.45bn estimate.
Leaving the beat aside, GPM still contracted ~90bps YoY while total opex rose 18%, outpacing revenue. This suggests an investment phase, pressuring margins (OPM narrowed 120bps YoY) and leading to limited profit conversion from top-line growth.
While current results are decent, the key issue is the very weak guide for next quarter. Management cited two drivers: the U.S.-Iran conflict and higher oil prices weighing on travel in affected regions, and voluntary operating adjustments to comply with regulators.
As the Middle East is not Trip.com's core overseas market, and OTA peers have actually traded well recently on World Cup tailwinds, Dolphin Research believes the U.S.-Iran conflict is not the primary factor. Domestic regulatory impact likely matters more.
Details in the release are limited, so watch the earnings call and subsequent small-group meetings for updates on the review and potential business impact. $Trip.com(TCOM.US) $TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)
MU 3Q26 First Take: in a word, stellar. Revenue, profit, and next-quarter guide all beat across the board.
Revenue jumped 74% QoQ, roughly matching last quarter's pace. Volumes contributed only low-to-mid single digits, with growth driven mainly by pricing.
GPM surged to 85%, well ahead of the Street. With stable operating leverage, OPM topped 80%. $41.5bn of revenue converted into $33.3bn of profit.
More importantly, the company guided to around $50.0bn for next quarter. That is well above the $42.6bn consensus.
The guide implies ~20% QoQ growth, broadly in line with expectations. Given shipment timing, pricing for the new quarter was not fully locked when the guide was set, so management typically builds in a buffer. Post-guide, bullish expectations moved higher.
EPS guidance essentially matches the most bullish buyside view at around $30. The 86% GPM guide (vs. the Street's 83%) reinforces that in this unprecedented supercycle, price-led revenue gains are flowing through to profit. With OPM approaching ~75%, the Agentic AI boom shows compute and memory matter equally.$Micron Tech(MU.US)
When OpenAI took off, Microsoft enjoyed the limelight. As Gemini gained traction, Google Cloud surged ahead.
That begs the question: with Anthropic now out in front, which cloud provider stands to benefit? In AI, whether in chip R&D or model development...