Dolphin Research
Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Dolphin Research
On Jan 2, 2026, $BIREN TECH(06082.HK) debuted on HKEX, with the IPO priced at the top end at HK$19.60. The stock opened up 82.14%; intraday mkt cap briefly topped HK$100bn, and it closed at about HK$82.5bn.
The retail tranche was oversubscribed 2,347x, highlighting a strong retail bid. Sentiment was buoyed by its scarcity as the first GPU company listed in Hong Kong.
The 'domestic $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)' label further stoked buying as investors chased a China Nvidia proxy. But setting aside the aura...
In the prior piece, after reviewing $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US)'s core biz., we noted that current earnings are largely driven by expansion of the Lending Platform Business (LPB), with a smaller lift from the gradual comeback in student loans.
On Mar 23, Muddy Waters released a short report that squarely targeted these key segments.In its view, SOFI's conduct is comparable to past cases like GE and Enron.Market reaction was muted.
After the CEO swiftly stepped in with share purchases to back the stock, it fell just 2.6% the next day.It even looked restrained vs. the typical impact of a short report...Jun 17 | Dolphin Research Key Watch: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) After a citywide crackdown on 'ghost restaurants' exposed fake storefronts and license mismatches, the Shenzhen Market Supervision Bureau summoned Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale and JD. It ordered comprehensive self-inspections, removal of non-compliant merchants, and on-site verification of offline stores.
The campaign targets gaps in food-safety audits. In the short term, platforms will need to ramp up merchant inspections, raising compliance Opex and putting food-delivery profitability under pressure.Over the longer run, the sector will move away from rough expansion. Platforms will be pushed to tighten merchant onboarding and risk controls...Dolphin Research's earlier concerns unfortunately materialized, with May retail sales weaker than Apr. YoY growth in total retail sales fell into negative territory at -0.6%, the first decline in the post-pandemic era.
Even before the Sep-24 'big reversal', domestic retail had not been this weak. From a channel perspective, online retail shows signs of bottoming and a rebound, but offline spending deteriorated more sharply (both goods and dining), further slowing the headline growth. By category...$SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) has been public for five years. Early on, it was cast as the next LendingClub, a scaling digital bank, and a high-beta fintech meme stock.
Since its 2021 debut, the shares have crashed multiple times. At the 2022 trough, they fell to about 60% of the IPO price.Even after clawing back, turbulence has persisted. In Mar, SoFi was targeted by famed short-seller Muddy Waters.As the short case is not without merit, Dolphin Research will unpack it in the next note. That said, whatever Muddy Waters alleges, in management’s eyes...0616 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry — 1) NBS data show May retail sales fell 0.6% YoY and 0.38% MoM, with goods consumption soft while F&B and rural retail posted modest gains. Industrial value-added (above designated size) rose 4.5% YoY, up 40bps vs. Apr as new growth drivers strengthened the production side.
Supply and demand diverged: the recovery in domestic demand remained weak, while manufacturing upgrade and transformation accelerated. Near term, this weighs on valuations across consumer plays.
However, computing power and new energy equipment—representative high-end manufacturing—show resilient fundamentals. The data underscore ongoing pressure on internal demand repair...
Starlink is the 'super base' underpinning SpaceX's long-term ambitions. It serves as the empire's core platform.
0615 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Both the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire MoU, with Trump authorizing 'free passage' through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The parties plan to sign the agreement in Switzerland on Jun 19, with follow-on talks over the next 60 days to address the Iran nuclear file and sanctions.
Near term, the headlines ease Middle East geopolitical risk, compressing the crude risk premium and supporting energy and shipping. However, core disagreements such as the nuclear issue remain unresolved, keeping the setup fragile. Progress in subsequent negotiations is the key watch.
Wielding 'first principles' to disrupt the global aerospace industry
Jun 12 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock #1, $BABA-W(09988.HK) — Reports say Alibaba plans to bid $1.5bn for front-warehouse grocer Pupu. Earlier chatter suggested Meituan and JD were in the running, but both have denied it. Pupu generates approx. RMB 30bn in annual revenue, is steadily profitable, and focuses on 30‑min on-demand delivery across multiple South China cities.
If completed, the deal would add a mature front-warehouse (dark store) capability beyond Freshippo (Hema) and Taobao Flash, strengthening Alibaba’s hand vs. Meituan in local fresh grocery. That said, the $1.5bn price tag looks rich...0611 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) US May CPI +4.2% YoY, up from Apr's 3.8%; core CPI edged up to 2.9% YoY, with energy the main driver. The print was in line with expectations, prompting markets to push back the first cut and trim the number of cuts priced for this year; UST yields moved higher and the USD strengthened.
Near term, this pressures growth stocks in HK/US and may intensify foreign selling of HK equities; the Jun FOMC meeting is set to keep rates high. The inflation rebound confirms the overseas easing window is delayed, and flows should continue to favor high-dividend defensives...Below is Dolphin Research's compiled Trans of $Oracle(ORCL.US) FQ4 2026 earnings call. For the earnings analysis, see 'ORCL Plunge? AI Infra Can't Fix the Core Weakness — High Rates, High Debt + Stalled Software'.
Section I: Core recap. 1) FY27 full-year guide: total revenue approx. $90bn; non-GAAP EPS est. at $8.05...Among the 'New Cloud' cohort, $Oracle(ORCL.US) is one of the most watched and debated. On Jun 11 after hours, it reported FY26 Q4 results for the period ended May.
Overall, the print was mixed. OCI growth accelerated, while the broader legacy software portfolio slowed.
GPM improved QoQ off the trough, but still missed estimates by a wide margin. Next-quarter guidance was above expectations.
However, the FY27 full-year outlook was relatively conservative. Net-net, the quarter felt muted...
Oracle 4Q26 First Take: the company reported results for the quarter ended May this morning; overall muted, with few bright spots.
1) On growth, the key metric—OCI revenue—rose 92% in constant currency. It accelerated QoQ as expected, but landed squarely in line with the Street with no upside surprise.
By contrast, SaaS and on‑prem software revenue grew 10% and fell 2%, respectively. Growth kept slowing and came in slightly below expectations, underscoring pressure on the legacy franchise.Hardware and services both beat. However, combined they account for just a bit over 10% of mix, so the impact was limited.Total revenue was about 19.2bn, up 20.6% YoY. Growth ticked up modestly on OCI strength, or roughly +200bps ex‑FX, and came in slightly above consensus.
2) On new orders, RPO increased by 85bn QoQ to 638bn. With no chatter about fresh megadeals ahead of earnings, the Street was looking for about 590bn.
We suspect the recently disclosed cooperation with the U.S. Gov. is a likely source of new wins. In addition, contracts requiring customer prepayment or customer‑provided hardware now total 75bn, likely signed over the past two quarters.3) GPM missed again at 65%. It improved QoQ and shows signs of bottoming, but trailed the ~66% Street view.
By segment, cloud and software posted GPM of 68.8%, up from 68.2% in the prior quarter. The YoY decline remains notable; whether this is a blip or a trend inflection bears watching.4) Capex was roughly 16.5bn, down from 18.6bn in the prior quarter. Back‑solving from management’s prior full‑year capex guide of 50bn, the market had penciled in only about 11bn for the quarter, but a sharp pullback would be inconsistent with accelerating OCI demand.
On financing, management said it completed 43bn in bonds and 5bn in equity raises in FY26. For FY27, it plans another 20bn each in debt and equity (already disclosed), effectively securing most of next year’s capex.
5) Guidance: for next quarter, cloud (IaaS+SaaS) growth midpoint is 60%, signaling further acceleration. That is modestly ahead of the ~57% Street.
Non‑GAAP EPS midpoint is 1.74, implying +18% YoY and ~3% above consensus. Better than expected, but not a step‑change.The rub is the FY27 full‑year outlook: revenue is still guided at 90bn, and the updated full‑year Non‑GAAP EPS of $8.05 is likewise in line with the Street. Both match current market numbers.
So while near‑term guidance looks solid, the full‑year view is uninspiring. Dolphin Research thinks management likely lacks full‑year visibility and is therefore sticking to consensus for now. $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Defiance Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF(ORCX.US)This is the final installment in our WMT series. We focus on assessing the stock's investment value.
0610 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1. The National Bureau of Statistics released May data, showing CPI rose 1.2% YoY, while falling slightly by 0.1% MoM. Core CPI was up 1.1% YoY.Overall consumption is recovering moderately. The MoM weakness was mainly due to a slight rise in food prices, and seasonal declines in service and energy costs post-holiday.A 1.2% YoY growth rate remains within a moderate range, leaving room for accommodative monetary policy. This mild inflation is positive for consumption sector valuation repair and supports the continued implementation of pro-growth policies.The strength of the consumption recovery remains relatively flat, with no significant rebound yet...This is the third installment of our Walmart deep dive, focusing on Sam's Club — long ignored by investors yet effectively Walmart's third growth engine — and a hard comparison against Costco, the global benchmark for warehouse clubs.
Let's get straight to it: WMT.0609 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The US DoD updated its Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies, covering internet, semis, NEVs and biopharma. New additions include Alibaba, BIDU, WuXi AppTec, BYD and Nio, while Huawei, Tencent and Hikvision were already on the list; listed firms issued statements denying defense-related biz and said they will appeal. The list restricts US Gov. procurement rather than imposing financial sanctions, so near-term operating impact is limited but it dampens risk appetite.
2) WeChat officially opened its AI ecosystem developer access channel. Access is now open to third-party developers...In the prior piece, we unpacked Walmart's low-cost engine: township-level, differentiated site selection; an end-to-end, self-run supply chain; reverse pricing with EDLP; and a broad private-label portfolio, showing how 'extreme efficiency + extreme cost discipline' made it the king of offline retail.
This piece turns to Walmart's e-comm, the bigger swing factor for its growth trajectory and whether its market cap can leg higher. Dolphin Research will run a hard-nosed, full-stack compare with Amazon to lay out the logic behind Walmart's differentiated breakout.0608 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) HK and A-shares suffered a broad selloff today. A blowout US NFP flipped rate-cut expectations and pushed UST yields higher, with the tech-led rout on Wall St. spilling into APAC; Korea hit a circuit breaker and Japan tumbled, amplifying fear.
High-multiple AI and semiconductor names led the de-rating, driving clear negative spillovers. Adding to the pressure, global houses such as Goldman Sachs have downgraded HK equities, and epic IPOs like SpaceX slated for this week are siphoning liquidity; the confluence of headwinds triggered panic foreign selling and a stampede among onshore funds...Below is Dolphin Research's Trans from Lululemon's FY26 Q1 earnings call.
For our earnings take, see 'Lululemon: Founder blasts, weak print—can a new CEO save its black-leggings franchise?'Revenue barely in line. Guidance slashed.
LULU 1Q26 First Take: another print with revenue fine but guidance a bomb.
With expectations already low after multiple cuts, Q1 revenue landed slightly above plan. However, management slashed Q2 and FY guides (sales from +2%-4% to -1% to flat; profit from a low-single-digit decline to a 15%-17% drop), sending shares down 11% AH.1) Growth improved QoQ but remains soft.
Revenue was $2.472bn, +4% YoY (+2% ex-FX; ~200bps FX tailwind), a touch above guidance.
By category, women’s (the core) delivered $1.56bn, +4.4% YoY.
Given NA comps of -5% and management’s lukewarm read on newness, the growth likely came from Intl, with core NA customers not buying into new products.
Men’s was $580mn, +6.8% YoY, outpacing women’s.
Other (accessories, footwear, etc.) was $290mn, -1.4% YoY, also weak.2) The biggest problem remains a soft North America.
NA revenue fell 3% YoY, comps -5%, with traffic, conversion and ticket all down—the worst combo.
Mainland China was the bright spot: revenue +29%, comps +20%, clearly driven by traffic rather than discounting, making the growth higher quality than in prior quarters.
Other Intl markets grew 12% (comps +5%), but momentum slowed due to Middle East conflict and softer tourism in Europe and Japan.3) Profit was weak, and guidance was cut sharply.
Tariff headwinds and discounting pressure amid weak NA demand pushed GPM down 410bps YoY to 54.2% in Q1.
On opex, earlier-timed brand activations (Indian Wells tennis, Milan Olympics, etc.) and spend tied to distribution-rights competition lifted the SG&A ratio by 310bps to 42.9%.
OPM was 11.2%, down 730bps YoY, the weakest in years. More to come from Dolphin Research’s follow-up take & Trans.$Lululemon(LULU.US)0604 | Dolphin Research focus: 🐬 Stock pick 1, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to list on Nasdaq on Jun 12 with ticker 'SPCX'. The IPO is priced at $135, targeting $75bn of proceeds and valuing the company at $1.77tn.
The deal would set a new global IPO record by proceeds. This mega listing could siphon liquidity from global markets, while lifting valuations across the commercial space value chain upstream and downstream.
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Broadcom(AVGO.US) FY26 Q2 earnings call. For our earnings take, please see 'AVGO: Giants vs. Giants — Is the ASIC camp splitting?'
Core highlights from the quarter include: 1) shareholder returns and 2) Q3 outlook. The company paid $3.1bn in cash dividends in Q2, equivalent to a quarterly cash dividend of $0.65 per common share, and guides Q3 consolidated revenue of $29.4bn (+84% YoY)...