Dolphin Research

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Circle(CRCL.US) Q1 2026 earnings call. For our take, see 'Circle: Ugly tape, but the No.1 stablecoin play keeps expanding'.

On May 11 pre-market ET, the first listed stablecoin play $Circle(CRCL.US) reported Q1 2026 results. The release frames how investors assess drivers beyond rates and USDC scale.

Because USDC circulating supply and reserve asset yields are public, roughly 95% of interest income is largely knowable. As a result, Circle's share price has mostly tracked changes in USDC market cap, effectively a proxy for rate-cut expectations and shifts in crypto policy.

Where the print can surprise is in non-interest revenue, internal operating efficiency, and the guidance. These elements signal the company's medium- to long-term strategic priorities.

Circle 1Q26 First Take: With USDC supply and reserve asset yields publicly known, interest income, ~95% of revenue, is largely predictable. As a result, Circle's share price tends to move with USDC, essentially tracking rate-cut expectations and shifts in crypto policy.

The real delta in the print lies in non-interest income. It also reflects internal operating efficiency and guidance that signals mid-to-long-term strategic goals.

Q1 results looked softer than expected. Core indicators did not miss.

(1) Revenue delta: Mostly from interest income, which is driven by the above public data and timing lags. Other revenue tied to ecosystem expansion (CPN, Arc chain, etc.) beat. USDC Avg. circulating supply was $75.2bn, down QoQ on weaker crypto trading activity, while USDC's stablecoin market share held flat at 28%.

(2) Profit under pressure: OP declined markedly YoY. In a rigid investment cycle, when the largest component, interest income, is hit, profits are highly sensitive.

However, as the share of USDC retained on Circle's platform continued to rise (up 100bps QoQ to 18%), the external revenue-sharing ratio on reserve interest dipped by 100bps. This should keep optimizing and lift profitability.

Additionally, mgmt kept FY26 Adj. opex guidance at $570–585mn. That is better than the market's higher spend assumption of $725mn.

(3) Call focus: The CLARITY Act saw fresh progress last week, with a compromise framework moving forward though details remain to be clarified. Coinbase mgmt expects enactment by late summer; watch Circle mgmt's comments for corroboration.

Also watch how mgmt plans to balance elevated current investment with future output, and the pacing of that transition. $Circle(CRCL.US)

0511 | Dolphin Research Watch: 🐬 Macro/Industry update. U.S. President Trump will pay a state visit to China on May 13–15, the first by a U.S. president in nine years.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Block(XYZ.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call. For the earnings analysis, please see 'US Alipay Block: growth driven by credit, profits from layoffs?'.

The US 'Alipay' — $Block(XYZ.US) (XYZ.US) — reported Q1 2026 results after the US close on May 8. The quarter was solid, with revenue and profit beating estimates and momentum improving. Guidance for next quarter was also constructive, with a positive tone on trends.

1) Growth and profitability were both strong. Total revenue rose ~5% YoY, weighed by a sharp decline in bitcoin revenue.

Ex‑bitcoin, core revenue was about $4.26bn (+~23% YoY). Growth accelerated by ~100bps vs. last quarter and was clearly ahead of Bloomberg estimates...

Below is the FY26Q1 Airbnb earnings call Trans compiled by Dolphin Research. For our earnings review, see 'Airbnb: Near-term results look fine, but facing a midlife crisis?'.

Alt. stays leader Airbnb$Airbnb(ABNB.US) released FY26 Q1 results this morning (May 8). Overall, the quarter was solid, with most metrics slightly beating estimates. Growth metrics accelerated on FX tailwinds.

Below is Dolphin Research's compiled Trans of $Coinbase(COIN.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call.

$Coinbase(COIN.US) reported Q1 results, and most of the pullback was largely as anticipated. The quarter played out against a backdrop of the CLARIFY bill stalling and Middle East tensions lifting oil and even reviving rate-hike expectations, both negatives for risk assets.

However, crypto-exposed stocks moved ahead of fundamentals; as geopolitical tensions eased in Apr, digital assets staged a rebound. Versus last quarter’s earnings day, BTC climbed from $67k to $80k, and Coinbase’s valuation rose from $38.5bn to $50bn...

Below is Dolphin Research's summary of $Coreweave(CRWV.US) FY26Q1 earnings call.

I. Key financial highlights recap. 1) Guidance: Q2 revenue is guided to $2.45-2.60bn and Q2 Adj. OP to $30-90mn.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of MNST's FY26 Q1 earnings call.

Revenue growth hit its highest quarterly pace in nearly four years

AI cloud unicorn $Coreweave(CRWV.US) reported Q1 2026 results after the US close this morning (May 8). Overall, revenue and biz. growth remained solid, but profit deterioration came in worse than even the cut guidance.

This suggests the company may face a spell where faster top-line growth widens losses, adding to existing doubts about its ability to achieve sustainable profitability over the medium to long term. Specifically: (1) revenue reached a new high at approx. $2.08bn, beating the Street’s $1.97bn...

Coinbase 1Q26 First Take: Q1 came in soft, with most key metrics missing, reflecting a dull trading tape since early Jan. BBG aggregates are somewhat lagging and do not capture the latest shifts in flows, while crypto-exposed stocks tend to move ahead of prints, tracking the market in real time.

We also reference Barclays' Q1 preview. While some lines still miss, the gap vs. actuals is far less dramatic.

1) Trading revenue saw the steepest decline: down 40% YoY, with trading volume down 36%. COIN gained modest share among centralized exchanges, but its overall trading share fell industry-wide, implying ongoing DEX penetration.

2) Stablecoin holding share continued to rise QoQ: stablecoin revenue grew 2% in Q1. USDC market cap increased from $7.58bn to $7.70bn, and Coinbase's held share rose by approx. 100bps to 24.7%.

3) Subscription revenue guidance is turning up: despite market sensitivity, management expects Q2 subscription revenue to recover alongside the recent crypto rally. It could materially exceed the original Q1 guide.

4) Profit under pressure; driving team efficiencies: with revenue sliding against relatively fixed costs, profitability was squeezed. Incremental R&D and product launches pushed core OP down over 90% YoY. The company is cutting 14% of headcount (~700 roles, mainly ops/admin), targeted for Q2, with approx. $50mn in severance.

5) Buybacks accelerated: COIN repurchased nearly $1.1bn of stock in Q1, a faster pace than last quarter. $1.3bn remains under the authorization.

6) Near-term catalysts still hinge on policy: Middle East tensions have eased, but a sustained recovery depends on the CLARIFY Act's passage. The stablecoin incentive dispute will likely settle via compromise; otherwise the bill remains stalled. $Coinbase(COIN.US)

Monster 1Q26 First Take: Overall, Q1 results were very strong. Sell-side c-store trackers had already flagged double-digit growth for major energy-drink players, including Monster, so the bar was high. Actuals still topped that, with the only blemish being some GPM pressure as Intl. scaled rapidly.

1) Revenue growth surged to 27%, the highest quarterly rate in nearly four years. Monster posted Q1 revenue of $2.35bn, up 27% YoY. That beat consensus of $2.15bn (~+16% YoY).

On volume/price, unit case volume jumped 28.8% YoY to 274mn cases, the core driver, indicating strong gains across e-comm, mass, and foodservice channels. ASP slipped 0.8% YoY to $8.4 per case, weighed by a higher mix of value brands in Intl. markets.

2) Core Monster brand accelerated QoQ. The flagship Monster brand grew 27.6% YoY, faster than Q4. Beyond continued strength in the zero-sugar Ultra line, Dolphin Research believes the broader FLRT rollout in Mar drove better-than-expected initial placement and sell-through.

Other strategic brands rose 29.2% YoY, also accelerating QoQ, driven by value labels such as Predator and Fury reaching the harvest phase of distribution in emerging markets. By region, Intl. grew 45% YoY and mix rose to 45%, a record high.

3) Operating leverage continued to expand. Despite a higher mix of lower-margin Intl. and rising aluminum costs, GPM slipped 150bps to 55%. Mix and input inflation were the key headwinds.

On opex, the company is shifting from broad extreme-sports sponsorships to more efficient, data-driven digital marketing and gaming tie-ups, improving marketing ROI. Together with operational efficiencies, OPM expanded 30bps to 31.0%, beating estimates. For more detail, follow Dolphin Research's detailed take and earnings call notes. $Monster Beverage(MNST.US)

CRWV 1Q26 First Take: A mixed print. Growth remained strong with revenue above guide and remaining performance obligations (RPO) swelling to nearly $100bn.

On the other hand, profitability and balance sheet pressures were worse than expected. Effective GPM fell to 4.3%, while net debt and interest expense also surged.

Guidance for next quarter revenue came in well below consensus, the biggest negative. Together with subdued Capex, it suggests execution issues around ramping max capacity.

In detail: see below. We highlight the following.

1) Revenue was approx. $2.08bn (+112% YoY), topping the prior $1.9–2.0bn guide. Online capacity reached 1,000 MW, up 150 MW QoQ and tracking plan. This implies rising revenue per MW.

2) Adj. OP loss was $144mn vs. a $89mn loss last quarter, worse than expected. Scale remains dilutive: bigger biz., higher revenue, deeper losses.

3) Total RPO reached $99.4bn, up approx. $33bn QoQ. This aligns with reported orders from Meta (~$21bn), Jane Street (~$6bn) and Anthropic (several bn).

4) Net debt rose by ~$7.3bn; interest expense reached ~$540mn. At 26% of revenue, interest alone is a major drag on earnings.

5) Guides next-quarter revenue to $2.45–2.60bn, well below the $3.4–3.5bn the market expected. For FY26, revenue guidance is $12–13bn. With 1H guided to under $4.7bn, the required 2H ramp is steep.

Expects next-quarter Adj. OP of $30–90mn, implying ~2.4% margin. Margins are trending up with scale, but remain low in absolute terms. $Coreweave(CRWV.US)

Below is Dolphin Research's 1Q26 earnings call Trans for $Unity Software(U.US).

Hi everyone, this is Dolphin Research! $Unity Software(U.US) reported Q1 results. As it pre-announced in late Mar., the focus remains on guidance.

After the IronSource divestiture, guidance more clearly signals the growth trajectory of the Vector ad system. 1) Guidance was slightly above expectations, with Vector trending well; management guides Q2 revenue growth of 15%-17%. Within that, excluding IronSource and the Supersonic unit, core strategic biz revenue...

Unity 1Q26 First Take: Unity pre-announced 1Q results in late Mar and disclosed plans to separate IronSource and Supersonic; background in our prior note (Unity Q1 业绩预告点评). Revenue came in slightly above the pre-announced range.Excluding scope changes, EBITDA beat as tighter cost control following portfolio refocus drove operating efficiency.

Also supportive for sentiment: management guided Q2 ads revenue above Street. Engine revenue is in line as the early-year price hike underpins organic growth.

Note BBG consensus has a lag: several models were submitted before Mar, so the Strategic segment in some estimates still includes IronSource and Supersonic. That makes the Q2 Strategic Grow revenue guide of $300mn look below the $340mn consensus.

Adjusting consensus to exclude IronSource and Supersonic, the market was at Approx. $290mn for Q2 Strategic Grow; the $300mn guide is slightly above, implying Unity Ads ~50% YoY.We expect Q2 to benefit from the D28 algorithm driving deeper client penetration and data integration with the Runtime engine. With competition intensifying at the margin, management’s view on the longer-term vector trend is key; watch for more detailed KPIs on the call. $Unity Software(U.US)

0507 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei confirmed it is still reviewing a U.S. peace proposal relayed via Pakistan, which includes a 14-point ceasefire plan, and has not formally responded. Tehran plans to feed back its comments through Islamabad once the review is complete.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Disney(DIS.US) FY26Q2 earnings call. For our earnings analysis, see 'Disney: A solid debut by the new chief, resilience from a century-old brand'.

Dolphin Research presents the earnings call Trans for $AppLovin(APP.US) Q1'26. For the full earnings read-through, cf. 'Applovin: still a sweetheart, has capital moved on?'.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of ARM FY26 Q4 earnings call. For our earnings take, please see 'ARM: short-term volatility can't mask its edge; AI sets a long-term premium?'.

ARM (ARM.O) reported Q4 FY2026 results (quarter ended Mar 2026) after the US close on May 7 (Beijing time). Key takeaways: (1) Headline metrics: $Arm(ARM.US) posted revenue of $1.49bn (+20% YoY), slightly above consensus at $1.47bn.