TheInvestingIguana

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 3 JULY 2026

☕ Good morning, Iguanas. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT. Here is what I am watching before the bell.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

Wall Street sent a mixed signal overnight. The Dow surged 594.83 points, or 1.13 percent, to a fresh record at 52,900.07. The S&P 500 closed essentially flat at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq dropped 207.36 points, or 0.80 percent, to 25,832.67, as cooling labour market data sparked a rotation out of megacap AI names and into broader value sectors. For SGX dividend counters, that rotation into value is the more relevant signal than the Dow headline.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY'S RADAR

👁 O39 OCBC Bank, +1.70%

OCBC closed at 25.080, up 1.70 percent on firm volume. This is a capital strength call, not a yield call, and at current prices the trailing yield does not clear the minimum threshold I track for income names. The income case strengthens if price corrects or the next ordinary dividend increases.

👁 Z74 Singtel, +0.45%

Singtel was the most active counter on the board yesterday, closing at 4.460, up 0.45 percent. I have not run a full audit on this name yet, watching price action only.

👁 544 CSE Global, -3.03%

CSE Global slipped 3.03 percent to 1.280 on some of the heavier volume on the active list. I have not run a full audit on this name yet, watching price action only.

IGGY'S GAME PLAN

Rotation out of AI megacaps and into value is the theme I am tracking this week, and Singapore's dividend heavy index tends to benefit when that rotation holds. STI sitting well off its June record keeps me cautious about chasing anything without a yield cushion. OCBC's balance sheet strength is not in question, but the yield math still does not clear my hurdle at this price. What would change my view is a genuine pullback that brings yield back in line, not a headline, so I am watching over my kopi, not buying.

SATS | Maybank Research | BUY | Target Price S$5.09 | 01 Jul 2026

Maybank keeps SATS at BUY, raises its DCF-based target price to S$5.09, and argues the post-results share price move is more than a short-term relief rally due to clearer visibility on long-term growth drivers.

Key calls and valuation

The analysts lower WACC from 10.6% to 10.0% as they see lower execution risk, and lift FY26–27 earnings by 2.5% and 9.7% respectively, mainly on stronger expected contribution from the Thailand central kitchen from FY27.

At the time of writing, they highlight SATS is trading at about 21x FY27E P/E with a 1.5% dividend yield, which they view as attractive versus growth prospects.

Recommendation is BUY with a raised target price of S$5.09, based on DCF.

Growth thesis and FY29 targets

Management reiterates FY29 aspirations of revenue above S$8 billion, EBITDA margin of at least 20%, and ROE of 15%.

Maybank sees these targets as increasingly credible, supported by: sustained share gains in air cargo, better utilisation across the global food solutions network, and selective M&A into new cargo hubs.

A core plank is cargo, where SATS’ volumes have outperformed IATA for 10 consecutive quarters, aided by its global network and exposure to resilient tech and e‑commerce flows; Maybank projects about 5% cargo volume growth in FY27 with yields holding.

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 2 JULY 2026

☕ Good morning. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

US markets fell slightly: S&P -0.22%, Nasdaq -0.66%, Dow flat. Tech and chips led the pullback despite Fed Chair Warsh signalling easing inflation. Profit-taking in Q2's top runners. Brent crude dropped 2.50% to USD 71.13, a fresh low below the USD 72 level tracked through June.

SGX PRE-OPEN PULSE

STI closed at 5,165 yesterday, down ~43 points on the first H2 session. USD/SGD is 1.2952 (SGD soft). The Nasdaq dip, Brent breaking below USD 72, and STI pullback set a cautious tone for today's open.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY'S RADAR

👁 CICT (C38U): Closed S$2.360. Down 0.42% on ~27M volume. Forensic out now. Yield clears the hurdle, but two balance sheet readings are out of range. Watching the soft REIT environment carefully.

👁 SingTel (Z74): Closed S$4.440. Up 0.68%, outperforming a mostly red income board. Ex-div passed. Cautious on income durability; watching if gains hold in a softer open.

👁 CapLand Ascendas REIT (A17U): Closed S$2.460. Down 1.20% on 21M+ volume. Forensic vs Mapletree Industrial out. Three balance sheet readings out of range. Tracking if support emerges at S$2.46.

IGGY'S GAME PLAN

H2 2026 starts differently: STI down, Brent <USD 72, Nasdaq lower. Broad REIT softness (7 in top 20 actives, mostly lower) against an STI near ATHs is the key dynamic to watch. Maybank trimmed its STI year-end target to 5,500 on energy cost/EPS concerns, though falling Brent cuts the other way. Forensic discipline unchanged: balance sheet first, yield second, narrative last.

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🦎 IGGY CLOSING BRIEF, 1 JULY 2026

🌆 First session of H2 2026. REITs told the clearest story.

The STI closed around 5,208, flat and unchanged from yesterday’s H1 finish. On the surface, stable. Underneath, rotation. Tech and energy provided mild support, while REITs broadly softened. CapLand IntCom T, CapLand Ascendas REIT, Mapletree Logistics Trust, MPACT, Keppel REIT, and KIT all ended lower or flat. Seven REIT/infrastructure names sat in the top twenty actives, mostly red. That lines up with Maybank trimming its STI target to 5,500 (from 5,600) on a 2% EPS downgrade driven by higher energy costs.

THREE MOVERS

Z74 SingTel, S$4.440 (+0.68%)

Strongest among my names, with >29m volume. Now trading ex-dividend. What matters is post-ex behaviour: holding up suggests underlying demand beyond yield capture. Ordinary yield sits just above 4%. Still below my hurdle and I remain cautious on income durability despite constructive price action.

C38U CapLand IntCom T, S$2.360 (-0.42%)

Second most active (~27m units). Price move is mild, but the yield profile is more nuanced than it looks. Two balance sheet metrics remain outside my retirement-grade thresholds. Full forensic breakdown is already up.

A17U CapLand Ascendas REIT, S$2.460 (-1.20%)

Third most active. A sharper decline on decent volume. Focus remains on overseas occupancy and balance sheet readings. One session does not define trend, but day-one H2 weakness is worth noting.

MACRO READ

REIT softness coincides with Maybank’s downgrade. Energy costs flow through indirectly via utilities and operating expenses, including data centres. Not immediate, but relevant. At index highs with limited yield spread, even small EPS downgrades matter.

END OF DAY

Flat index, soft REITs, first target cut of H2. Not alarming alone, but together they argue for discipline. This is not the phase to stretch for yield with high gearing or weak occupancy. The next key catalysts are REIT earnings, starting late July (CICT, Mapletree names).

Soup Holdings Hits Profit Warning — Landlord Wins, Shareholders Lose

Your favorite local restaurant brand just warned you about shrinking investment returns. Homegrown operator Soup Holdings expects a clear net loss for the first half of this year. The root cause is a heavy three hundred and eighty-four thousand dollar pre-termination fee paid simply to walk away from a bad lease agreement for a proposed new outlet. When a commercial landlord can extract that much cash before a single table is set, you know the retail operating landscape is severely cracked. Think of it like watching your neighborhood plate of chicken rice jump by a dollar overnight just because the coffee shop operator raised the stall rent.

In plain terms, high structural overheads eat your investment returns before you ever taste a dividend payout.

This specific operational stumble wiped out profitability, amplified by another outlet shutting down for two full months during a relocation exercise. For retail investors hunting small-cap passive income on the local exchange, this corporate update cuts through the noise. It proves that raw foot traffic and familiar brand heritage cannot save an F&B business model if underlying lease liabilities are not managed with forensic precision. Defensive capital deserves far better stewardship than paying heavy penalties to escape empty real estate commitments. This is my personal forensic read, not financial advice. Always run your own numbers before moving any CPF or SRS capital.

$Soup(5KI.SG)

🦎 IGGY MIDDAY BRIEF, 29 JUNE 2026

MORNING SESSION RECAP

STI opened at 5,201, above Friday’s 5,191 close. Early range is tight at 5,189 to 5,207, signalling no urgency to take direction on the second-last trading day of H1. Top actives are led by agricultural and consumer names rather than banks or REITs. My read is cautious consolidation near historic highs.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY'S RADAR

👁 E5H Golden Agri-Resources, flat at S$0.270

High volume with no price movement suggests two-way flow at a contested level. Palm oil prices feed into regional food costs, while Brent crude sitting ~20–25% below last year’s peak has eased input costs. Whether this translates into margin recovery is the key question before considering it for income.

👁 Y92 ThaiBev, down S$0.010 at S$0.430

Early selling with over 10 million units traded. Earnings are Thailand-based, so SGD investors carry FX drag. With THB weakening alongside regional currencies against USD, income gets a quiet haircut before it reaches your account.

👁 A7RU Keppel Infrastructure Trust, down S$0.010 at S$0.535

SORA near cycle lows supports distribution coverage via cheaper floating-rate debt. The key question is whether yield is driven by contracted cash flows or balance sheet management. That distinction matters more in a low-rate environment.

MACRO PULSE CHECK

No Singapore data in focus. US futures not yet clear. Backdrop unchanged: STI near highs, SORA near lows, Brent ~20–25% below last year’s peak.

IGGY'S LUNCH TABLE VIEW

H1 closes tomorrow with STI near record levels. That is constructive, but it tightens entry points for income investors. I am watching whether REITs pick up volume this afternoon. Quiet at highs is not the same as safe. I am watching, not chasing.

🦎 IGGY MORNING BRIEF, 29 JUNE 2026

☕ Good morning, Iguanas. SGX opens at 9 AM SGT. Here is what I am watching before the bell.

OVERNIGHT US SUMMARY

Wall Street ended Friday mixed and quiet. The S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,354, Dow fell 0.09% to 51,876, while the Nasdaq dropped 0.24% to 25,298, marking a fifth straight loss as chip stocks remained under pressure. Reports of OpenAI potentially delaying its IPO to 2027 weighed on sentiment.

For the week, Nasdaq lost 4.6%, S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, while Dow gained 0.6%. A tech-led pullback with defensives holding is broadly neutral for Singapore dividend investors.

SGX PRE-OPEN PULSE

STI closed flat at 5,191.73, still below its record close of 5,218.96 on June 25. Brent crude eased to ~USD 72, lowest since February, as Hormuz flows normalised under the US-Iran MoU. Lower oil is a mild tailwind for REITs and industrials. USD/SGD sits around 1.29.

THREE STOCKS ON IGGY'S RADAR

👁 Z74 SingTel

Yield just above 4%, but a meaningful portion comes from asset recycling rather than operating income. Watching ahead of August results. Not adding at current levels.

👁 C38U CICT

Strong volume interest as SORA stays low. Gearing will be a key check when I run a full forensic audit. Watching for now.

👁 A17U Ascendas REIT

Most active industrial REIT. AI and data centre narrative driving attention. No audit yet. Not chasing without numbers.

IGGY'S GAME PLAN

STI is holding above 5,100 but remains below recent highs. I am not chasing. DBS flagged the World Cup period as a tactical accumulation window ahead of a potential July rally. This week, I am watching for volume recovery and whether banks, which held up last week, can sustain momentum into results season.

My kopi-o costs the same as last Monday. The market may be near highs, but not everything has moved.