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Tesla Misses Again: Collapse of Faith or the Darkest Hour Before Dawn?"Tesla is down again, where is the bottom this time?"With the release of Q1 2026 delivery figures, this question is once again being hotly debated in the market. Tesla (TSLA) delivered 358,000 vehicles, below the expected 370,000, and its stock price fell 5% in response. Year-to-date, the decline is close to 17%. The former "faith harvester" is now clearly under pressure.The core of the issue is that Tesla is experiencing the growing pains of an "identity shift."On one hand, the car manufacturing business has moved from a high-growth phase to maturity. The Model 3/Y are in the later stages of their product cycles. While the market is full of anticipation for the Cybercab, Optimus, and the new Roadster, current sales still rely on older models. Against the backdrop of slowing global EV demand and subsidy reductions, the logic of supporting a high valuation through car sales alone is weakening.On the other hand, the AI and robotics businesses remain in the "storytelling" phase. Musk is pushing FSD and Optimus hard, trying to transform Tesla into an AI company, but the reality is: gross margins are still dragged down by the vehicle business, and the profits from AI have yet to truly materialize. Capital markets can accept a vision, but they value the timeline for its realization more.So, how to judge the bottom? The key is not the price, but the signals.First, watch whether gross margins stabilize.Tesla once led its peers with high gross margins, but the ongoing price war continues to erode profit margins. If vehicle-level gross margins can bottom out and rebound in Q2 or Q3 2026, or if FSD subscriptions significantly boost overall profitability, the fundamentals will once again support the stock price.Second, watch the pace of FSD and Robotaxi deployment.2026 is seen as the "year of delivery." The mass production of the Cybercab and the commercialization of autonomous driving are key valuation pivots. Further delays will continue to erode market confidence.Third, watch changes in the competitive landscape.Current market competition far exceeds that of three years ago. With attacks from both new entrants and traditional automakers, Tesla must prove it still possesses overwhelming cost and efficiency advantages after its first-mover advantage has diminished.Based on the above logic, my judgment is:Tesla's "physical bottom" depends on the inflection point in profits, while its "psychological bottom" depends on Musk delivering on the AI narrative.For long-term investors, the focus should not be on how much the stock price has fallen, but on whether Tesla's core assets—data, algorithms, and computing power—continue to appreciate. If it ultimately remains just an efficient manufacturer, then the valuation re-rating is not over yet.Every major surge is often preceded by a period of de-foaming. Tesla in 2026 is undergoing a crucial test.The bottom is not a price, but a turning point in confidence. Until then, patience is more important than trying to catch the bottom.$ Tesla.US

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AI crashed, but semiconductors soared? Let's decode the massive capital shift behind the 'Black Monday' in U.S. stocks!

US stocks plummeted, has AI's "honeymoon period" ended?Today's US stock market can only be described as "frustrating." The three major indices collectively stalled, with the Nasdaq being the hardest hit. Many friends are asking: what exactly happened?In fact, this sharp decline wasn't due to a single unexpected event but rather several "cold spells" colliding:1. AI Panic: From "mindless buying" to "starting to chicken out" 📉Recent AI technological iterations have been too fast, even to the point of scaring the market. For example, Anthropic's automated legal tools directly and precisely disrupted the business models of the software and IT services industries.Software stocks have been hit hard these past two days. Among the S&P 500's worst-performing companies this year, all nine are software-related, with some already down over 25%.2. Earnings "Flash Death": Being excellent isn't enough 🚫This earnings season, the market has become very picky.Take $ AMD.US. Despite raking in huge profits last year with soaring revenues and earnings, just a slightly conservative outlook for Q1 this year caused a 10% pre-market drop.Then there's $ Novo Nordisk AS.US. Due to forecasts of slowing US sales growth this year, its stock price plummeted nearly 15% last night.3. "Hawkish" Rumors and Policy Fog 🦅Rumors are circulating that the Fed's new chair nominee might be very "hardcore" (hawkish), sparking fears that the expected rate cuts might be "off the table." Coupled with the US government's recent brief shutdown affecting employment data releases, this "blind uncertainty" has sent funds rushing into gold as a safe haven.Gold prices rebounded past the $5,000 mark, a clear safe-haven signal.The market is now in a "transition period." Investors are no longer buying into simple AI narratives but are reevaluating: who will be the "old wave" crushed by AI? And who are the real "winners" that can monetize?Final reminder: Volatility is the norm. Don't blindly panic-sell, nor blindly buy the dip halfway. In this "gods-fighting" start to 2026, preserving capital is more important than anything.

Let's talk about INTCRecently, a friend asked about INTC, so I'll take this opportunity to share my views.INTC is actually a stock you can buy, it's just that recently, capital hasn't been paying much attention to it, so the price hasn't moved much. Looking at its recent trend, the stock price has basically been moving sideways within a small range, and trading volume has been relatively thin. This indicates that the money in the market is very cautious right now; nobody is in a hurry to place large positions.Combined with the recent overall market trend, the current market is still mainly in a state of divergence. Hot sectors that are truly reaping growth dividends, like AI, large language models, and the semiconductor supply chain, are more likely to attract capital. As for established mainstay stocks like INTC, although the fundamentals aren't bad, they lack specific short-term catalysts, so large capital is allocating to them more conservatively.Furthermore, the overall market has recently been in a state of volatile adjustment, with capital more inclined to seek out targets with clearer growth prospects and more eye-catching short-term performance. This also leaves stocks like INTC, which currently lack highlights, in a neglected state. So, you see the stock price just moving back and forth in a narrow range, with trading volume not expanding much.If you're positioning from a long-term value investment perspective, there's no problem, especially suitable for patient holding, waiting for fundamental improvements or an industry cycle recovery. But if you expect substantial returns in the short term, the difficulty will indeed be greater, requiring time to trade for space.$ Intel.US