小福福

$Vision Marine Tech(VMAR.US) has dropped over six percentage points. This type of electric boat, being a micro-cap with a small float, experiences high volatility when there's no news, making it quite conspicuous among small caps today. $TOPNC(07688.HK) basically hasn't moved. The aviation numerical control equipment sector in Hong Kong stocks lacks catalysts and has been quiet. Both are small-cap industrials with poor liquidity and not deeply tied to any theme. This recent move in $Vision Marine Tech(VMAR.US) looks more like inherent volatility of small caps itself, not something at the industry level 😔

$Caterpillar(CAT.US) rose slightly, $BAOGAI(08090.HK) and $Cleveland Cliffs(CLF.US) basically didn't move. The industrial and materials sectors are all moving very flatly. 🙃

Recently, there has been a lack of sector-level catalysts for engineering machinery, specialty materials, and steel. They are moving sluggishly following the broader market's rhythm. The cyclical theme currently has no story to tell, just quietly sitting there.

$TOPNC(07688.HK) dropped seven points, which is quite noticeable. Small-cap high-end CNC equipment stocks are more volatile when sentiment is poor; $Eaton(ETN.US) fell slightly, and $TIANLI HOLDINGS(00117.HK) basically didn't move. The industrial and high-end manufacturing sectors were generally weak today, following the overall market's risk appetite pullback. $Eaton(ETN.US), a stock related to data center power distribution, still has underlying AI demand in the medium to long term, making this pullback seem more like a tactical adjustment; small-cap equipment stocks, however, are more easily amplified by sentiment fluctuations🙃

$Air Products and Chemical(APD.US) rose five points, announcing the cancellation of that low-return clean energy project in Louisiana and exiting unprofitable investments, while also reaching a cooperation agreement with Yara. The market is buying into this kind of capital discipline—no more reckless expansion, spending money where returns are clear.

$Honeywell Tech(HON.US) basically didn't move; without new catalysts, the industrial sector is just moving sideways. $Air Products and Chemical(APD.US) got a valuation reward from management's contraction of the front line, while $Honeywell Tech(HON.US) is still waiting for its own business inflection point.

$WEICHAI POWER(02338.HK) rose slightly, $DONGYUE GROUP(00189.HK) fell by over one percentage point, $SENIOR MATERIAL(06067.HK) rose by seven or eight percentage points. Chemical materials were divided into three lines today: $WEICHAI POWER(02338.HK) is a leader in commercial vehicle diesel engines, benefiting from the postponement of the National 7 emission standards; $DONGYUE GROUP(00189.HK) is a fluorine-containing new material, with no breakthrough in industrial product prices; $SENIOR MATERIAL(06067.HK) just went public a week ago, with lithium battery separator shipments increasing month-on-month in June. $SENIOR MATERIAL(06067.HK) is in the fermentation period for new and secondary new shares, $WEICHAI POWER(02338.HK) has realized policy benefits, and $DONGYUE GROUP(00189.HK) is waiting for fluorine price increases. Among the three independent stories, which one can continue to move forward? It looks more like $SENIOR MATERIAL(06067.HK)—secondary new share adjustments usually take 2-3 weeks to fully digest, and it's only been a week now, so the fermentation window is still open.

$KINGBOARD HLDG(00148.HK), $Caterpillar(CAT.US), and $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) all fell today — Kingboard dropped five percentage points, $Caterpillar(CAT.US) fell over five points, and $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) dipped two points.

When the AI computing power theme gets sold off, funds typically rotate into industrial and energy sectors for safety. However, this logic didn't hold today — all three stocks followed the decline, possibly reflecting a weakening marginal expectation for cyclical demand (oil prices dropped from 126 to 83 after the US-Iran reconciliation).

This creates a dilemma for holding positions: reducing holdings might mean missing the next rotation starting point; not reducing them means watching the cyclical narrative being priced down.

$ASIA TELE-NET(00679.HK) plunged -19%. Even with no major news, a micro-cap stock in Hong Kong can dive like this. Small-cap stocks with poor liquidity carry this kind of impulsive risk. $CNBM(03323.HK) fell about six points, $DONGYUE GROUP(00189.HK) dipped slightly, and $Shougang Lanza(02553.HK) barely moved—this batch of chemical materials is weak along with the cycle and sentiment. Cyclical plays like building materials and chemicals inherently follow commodity and real estate expectations. When the broader market weakens, high-beta stocks get hit first, and micro-cap volatility is even harder to explain with fundamentals 😵‍💫

$ASIA TELE-NET(00679.HK) dropped a brutal nine points, and $DONGYUE GROUP(00189.HK) also fell by five or six points 😪

These two small-cap materials/chemical stocks in the Hong Kong market were hit hard when the broader market was weak. The fluorochemical sector inherently follows cycles and demand. Once risk appetite contracts, highly volatile small-cap materials stocks are the first to take a hit, and it's hard to stop the decline without good news on the demand side.

$LINKERS INDUSTRIES LIMITED(LNKS.US) surged +67% in a single day, $Asia Pacific Wire & Cable(APWC.US) +43%, $Agape ATP(ATPC.US) +42%—three US micro-cap stocks moved collectively on the same day, but their stories are different: $LINKERS INDUSTRIES LIMITED(LNKS.US) increased its stake in Thailand's LPW Electronics, $Agape ATP(ATPC.US)'s subsidiary claimed to have signed a staggering oil and gas procurement deal with Swiss One, while $Asia Pacific Wire & Cable(APWC.US) simply couldn't find any announcement from that day. The only commonality is that their float is extremely small, allowing a single fund to pull off such a move. This kind of low-liquidity pulse raises questions about the truthfulness of the announcements and the reasonableness of the amounts involved. It's essentially a game of chips, not a fundamental revaluation. It looks tempting but carries an extremely high risk of being left holding the bag.

$Chevron(CVX.US) has been moving sideways with little action, as oil prices have been stuck in a range lately, unable to break up or down, so major energy stocks have been lying flat along with it; $SPDR Energy Select(XLE.US) the entire basket has basically been quiet too, the whole sector is waiting for oil prices to give a direction🤔

$Shougang Lanza(02553.HK) has barely moved, and $TOPNC(07688.HK) has dipped slightly. These two Hong Kong-listed secondary new manufacturing stocks enter a no-man's-land after the IPO hype fades—there's no analyst coverage, no liquidity, and the daily trading volume is pitifully thin.

This is the harsh reality of small-cap Hong Kong stocks: once the story is over, no one takes over. Even with normal fundamentals, the price can only drift lower in obscurity. If you really want to find gems in these stocks, you're waiting for the moment they're irrationally oversold—is it that irrational now? I don't think so yet; the liquidity discount hasn't reached an extreme. Let's just watch for now 🙄

$ESTUN(02715.HK) dropped five or six points. The industrial robot order cycle is still grinding at the bottom; any rebound over a couple of days gets beaten back. $CHERY AUTO(09973.HK) fell slightly. $WEICHAI POWER(02338.HK) dipped a little. These two heavyweights in the vehicle and powertrain sectors aren't making any major moves 😪. Stocks across China's manufacturing supply chain are all waiting for the same thing right now: the manufacturing PMI to climb back above the boom-bust line.

$Shougang Lanza(02553.HK) fell four to five percentage points, and $TIANLI HOLDINGS(00117.HK) directly dropped -13%. Small-cap Hong Kong stocks, as usual on low-volume days, had their liquidity drained. There's no news, no logic, just a free fall after buy orders disappeared.

The rebound of such stocks never gives any warning, but would you dare to buy in without any fundamental anchor? I feel even trying to catch a bounce is too early at this level—for stocks with dried-up liquidity, there's no bottom in sight.

Datang Power rose by more than three percentage points, with the power sector strengthening in line with expectations for electricity demand and capacity tariffs; Yankuang Energy and China Shenhua both fell slightly, with coal continuing to face pressure in a weak thermal coal price environment😪

Also classified under traditional energy, thermal power and coal moved in opposite directions today. The demand side for electricity has the narratives of AI and high temperatures, while the supply side for coal remains oversupplied.

Occidental Petroleum and CNOOC both fell more than two percentage points following the weakness in crude oil, with oil and gas stocks giving back gains before dividend payouts; the 2x short crude oil ETF rose more than four percentage points, with inverse instruments capturing this wave of decline.

Is this round of oil price decline a normal retracement due to the fading of Middle East geopolitical premiums, or a signal of weakening demand? It looks more like the former—it's normal for oil prices to give back gains at high levels when geopolitical risk pricing recedes. The fundamentals and dividend foundation of oil and gas stocks haven't changed. Holding for dividends in this position is more cost-effective than chasing shorts.

Datang Power basically didn't move, China Shenhua and Petrobras both fell about three percent, Shandong Molong dropped nearly six percent, and CK Hutchison also basically didn't move.

Traditional energy + Hong Kong stock value stocks collectively declined - oil prices are stable but major oil stocks collectively gave back gains, while the power sector was dragged down by the overall weak sentiment in the Hong Kong market ☺️

Yuegangwan Holdings and Weichai Power both fell by two to three percentage points. The traditional chemical and industrial manufacturing sectors in the Hong Kong stock market followed the broader market's fluctuations. 3M rose by over four percentage points, with the old-line defensive materials sector in the U.S. stock market strengthening against the trend. Both are industrial materials, but the defensive attributes of the U.S. stock market are reflected in the return curve, while cyclical stocks in the Hong Kong market bear the brunt of the volatility first.

Yuegangwan Holdings rose by four percentage points, which is quite noticeable; the real estate and Hong Kong small-cap stocks moved against the trend with independent momentum; Weichai Power and Minth Group both experienced minor consolidation; TianGong International rose slightly, Zhejiang Shibao fell by almost five percentage points, and Chongqing Machinery & Electric fell by nearly ten percent😳

The internal stratification within the cyclical industrial sector of Hong Kong stocks is very clear; real estate small-cap stocks have independent capital flow; the automotive parts sector is suppressed by tariff uncertainty; engineering machinery like machinery & electrical equipment faces deeper pressure, which aligns with the weak expectations for domestic infrastructure investment Q2 data.

Caterpillar rose by three points, with the tariff exposure of global infrastructure and construction machinery being repriced; Honeywell rose by nearly three points, with diversified industries benefiting from the easing of tariff disputes; Weichai Power fell by four points, with the heavy truck segment in Hong Kong stocks following domestic truck sales.

Two major industrial stocks in the US market rose in the same direction, while heavy truck stocks in Hong Kong fell, reflecting two opposite realities: improved expectations for tariff disputes and weak domestic truck demand.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) is now standing at the intersection of two lines, one is accelerating, the other is stuck.

The accelerating side is the Bloomberg news on 5/8 – a $35 billion private credit financing deal, with Apollo Global and Blackstone as the negotiating parties. If successful, it would be the largest private credit transaction in history. What's the money for? Funding R&D for custom AI chips. This is a very strong signal – a blue-chip investment-grade company like Broadcom turning to the PE world for financing indicates that traditional syndicated bank loans can no longer satisfy its capital appetite. CEO Hock Tan dropped a line in a recent earnings call: "AI chip sales could exceed $100 billion next year." The market is already recalibrating its valuation anchor based on this $100B figure.

The stuck side is the OpenAI mega deal. The first phase of the 1.3GW deployment requires $18 billion in financing, but Broadcom demands Microsoft commit to purchasing 40% of the chips before it will proceed – essentially, Broadcom wants to transfer the "credit risk" to its customer, but OpenAI hasn't yet convinced Microsoft to agree. If this line of negotiation fails, the "OpenAI order" portion of the valuation needs to be discounted.

In the middle are Google and Anthropic. The long-term TPU agreement with Google is already signed through 2031; the 3.5GW TPU capacity for Anthropic will be gradually released starting in 2027 based on its commercial progress – this is the most certain segment in the pricing.

So now AVGO is a combination of "3 segments of certainty + 1 segment of uncertainty." The market currently gives it a P/E of 80x – this valuation can only be sustained if the custom ASIC story is fully realized. In the short term, the 6/3 earnings report is the next clear catalyst (market expects revenue of $22.06B, EPS of $2.32), with an analyst consensus target of $467.89, representing a 9% upside from the current price.

The $430 level is not cheap but not expensive either, but entering in batches is more reasonable than chasing highs. Two things to wait for – progress on the OpenAI/MSFT line (any update will cause significant volatility) + the 6/3 earnings report. If the OpenAI deal falls apart and the price pulls back below $400, that might actually be a more comfortable entry point.

In the Hong Kong stock industrial new energy sector, three directions emerged from Siasun Intelligent, Weichai Power, and Sanhua Intelligent Controls: Sanhua rose relatively strongly, Siasun fell slightly, and Weichai's decline was a bit larger. Within the same sector, the three sub-sectors of heat pumps/lithium battery equipment/heavy-duty truck engines have different industry cycles, and they are quite separated. 🙃

Renewable electricity and uranium/small modular reactors (SMRs) moved in opposite directions today 😳

NextEra Energy rose slightly today, while Junda shares rose over 6%; Cameco also fell, Nano Nuclear fell nearly 8%, and Plug Power also fell.

Is this wave of decline in nuclear energy due to uranium valuations digesting overly high expectations, or is the market re-evaluating the commercial deployment timeline for SMRs? The corresponding investment logic for these two explanations is completely different—the former might be a buying opportunity, while the latter is a fundamental issue.

Traditional energy did not move in sync with dollar-denominated crude oil today: China Shenhua was relatively the strongest, with some sentiment around the coal price narrative in Hong Kong stocks; Venture Global is an LNG exporter and benefits from the broader oil and gas backdrop; PBR is a state-owned oil company, weighed down by policy uncertainty in Brazil; Nine Energy is a small oilfield service company, with its stock price basically flat and trading volume thin.

Chemical materials diverged internally today:

Longpan Technology rose nearly 5%. There is capital repricing the recovery pace of new energy battery materials for lithium iron phosphate materials, unexpectedly strong😸

Cleveland-Cliffs fell over 4.3%. Steel is under pressure from tariff impacts; the uncertainty of trade policy has a very direct effect on steel pricing.

Weichai Power's fundamentals are stable, with a slight increase of 0.7%, in the middle.

$Energy Fuels.US If you had been shorting all the way through this wave, you probably would have cursed me three times already. Up 418% in a year, and another +15% in April, I didn't believe it at the time either. But this isn't sentiment, it's fact — the White Mesa Mine actually produced 1M+ lbs of U3O8 in 2025, and Pinyon Plain plus La Sal added another 1.6M lbs, 11% higher than the company's own guidance. This is the very rare "production exceeding their own talk" in the mining industry. Catalysts are already on the table — new CEO Ross Bhappu took office in April (this guy comes from a mining investment background, not a PR CEO), with Q1 earnings on May 7th. More crucially is the matter of 99.9% pure terbium oxide: Energy Fuels is quietly transforming from a "uranium miner" into a "uranium + rare earths dual-core" company. What the US lacks most right now is a domestic rare earth supply chain, and this is a story that hasn't been fully priced in. I won't chase it in the short term — the $20 level is already +46% from last year's $14, and an emotional pullback could come at any time. But I'm willing to lie flat and hold within the range before May 7th. If the earnings report reveals specific customers for the rare earth contracts, the story will turn another page. No price target given, uranium prices themselves are too unpredictable. But after looking at this whole set of data, I don't dare short it.