First Fellow

First Fellow

Easy to get blinded by the SpaceX IPO halo effect, but the multiples on $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) $Intuitive Machines(LUNR.US) $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US) $York Space(YSS.US) $Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US) etc. are far from reality.

Space is highly uncertain and burns extreme capital. Enjoy the trend, but history tells us the market doesn't reward these speculative valuations.

Last couple of weeks I am asked multiple times on my thesis on $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) & $iShares Silver Tr(SLV.US) So here are my thoughts..

Both charts took a heavy hit after their recent peaks. The technical structure still tells me this is a healthy consolidation phase where the price is building a base and digesting those previous vertical moves.

I spoke about this before. Central banks are accumulating physical gold at record levels. That kind of institutional buying creates a massive floor under the price which is what we see on the technicals as well.

Silver has an entirely separate and more aggressive catalyst. We are seeing a multi year supply deficit driven by industrial demand from solar, EVs, and data centers(AI play). The gold to silver ratio recently compressed to the 55 level. This confirms silver is being bid as a hard industrial asset.

The fundamentals and the technicals are perfectly aligned for a continuation higher IMHO. The current price action is just a base building phase before the next leg up.

I will not be surprised if $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US) & $LSV go back above ATH's. It's a matter of when, not IF.

The week was phenomenal. But the best part of it is not AI or $Dell Tech(DELL.US) or $Snowflake(SNOW.US) for me.

$iShares Expanded Tech Software Sector ETF(IGV.US) Software is finally waking up. The AI infra has dominated hardware all year but it is clearly rotating into software names like $Datadog(DDOG.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) like names. The technical structure on these charts is highly actionable right now.

I WILL SCAN THE BEST SETUPS AND POST IT BY SUNDAY.

The optimal approach is to track the Avwaps from their recent momentum. I will share.

$TD Synnex(SNX.US) Who were in the spaces recently? I explicitly mentioned about this stock and at least 2 people took the trade looks like and got a nice "Thank you" Note. This is my Blue Diamond trade.

• Space stocks are experiencing volatility after a Blue Origin rocket explosion. $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) $Tema Space Innovators ETF(NASA.US) $Planet Labs(PL.US) $AST SpaceMobile(ASTS.US)

• Investors are excited about SpaceX's upcoming IPO, but risks remain.

• AI companies like Anthropic are showing stronger financial growth than space stocks.

• $Dell Tech(DELL.US)'s revenue is surging due to increased demand for AI-related hardware.

• $Costco Wholesale(COST.US) reported mixed earnings, with gasoline sales boosting overall performance.

• $IBM(IBM.US) plans to invest over $10 billion in quantum computing research and manufacturing.

• $Figma(FIG.US) stock has dropped significantly since its IPO, slowly getting boost from investors.

I find this interesting.

On average, a bull market lasts about 5.3 years and delivers a 254% gain. A bear market averages just one year with a 31% decline. Bull markets stays five times longer.

We bottomed out during the tariff bear market in April 2025, right? Since 1949, the S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) has returned 38% on average in the year after bear market lows. That is exactly what the market gained over the past year.

We are barely one year into this run. If you are abandoning textbook bases because you think the top is in, you are betting against decades of market structure. Focus on whats there in front of us, don't worry about every single breaking news in capital letters, useless distraction.

For people who want to understand how institutional accumulation looks, check out these volume candles.

Some names with massive accumulation structures: $Western Digital(WDC.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Blackberry(BB.US) $Avnet(AVT.US)

What is the playbook here? When a market pullback happens, you wait for these specific names to retest the 50ma.

I am going through my scans for the next 30 minutes. If you have any chart requests, drop the tickers below and I will take a look.

Once I am done, I will post my top 3 favorite setups from today's list. Let's see what is building a clean base.

#SwingTrading $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $iShares Russell 2000(IWM.US)

I got a chart request for $Innventure(INV.US).

The stock crashed 9% after Morpheus released a new short report. When you trade a penny stock, position sizing is extremely important. No one should have a big portion of their portfolio in a penny stock, never.

I looked at the report, it says that the company is allegedly operating out of a single family home in a Toronto suburb with zero proof their main project even exists. This is exactly what happens when you risk in penny stocks.

Profits looks fancy, people show off their big gains and when such reports happen, its gone before you know it.

Before the news even hit, the daily chart was showing heavy distribution except that 1 candle. Trade safe!

I saw that monster gap up from $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and almost posted $NetApp(NTAP.US) could be next and what do we know! If you haven't traded Dell, don't FOMO it's ok. No one could know the earnings unless they know it. Focus on whats in your hands.

Time for Drones huh! When the momentum kicks in, market goes like there is no tomorrow.

$Aerovironment(AVAV.US) $Unusual Machines(UMAC.US) $Kratos Defense & Security(KTOS.US) $Red Cat(RCAT.US)

I don't think $United States Oil Fund LP(USO.US) will have the same magnificent run it had in Feb despite of the news. I expect the worse is behind us in the short term, at least next couple of months and oil will nicely head to test the pink line.

$SPDR Energy Select(XLE.US) | $Exxon Mobil(XOM.US) | $Occidental Petroleum(OXY.US) | $Chevron(CVX.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) is fundamentally cheap right now.

Look at the Q3 numbers. Cloud revenue is $54.5 billion growing 29% YoY. Azure growth is back up to 40%. The market panicked over the $190 billion capex guidance for AI infrastructure. That capex is a risk these guys can afford, and $Meta Platforms(META.US) has a similar story. As usual, it is an overreaction.

That upfront investment is backing a massive $627 billion contract backlog. This is a great long term opportunity and mathematically cheap right here.

I would love to know if anyone has a bear case that actually makes sense against this growth rate.

PT: $600

$Comfort Systems USA(FIX.US) with a textbook base compression on the daily. If you see what I see, you already know what comes next.

PT1: 1250

$Caterpillar(CAT.US) Category: A+

This one is an extremely high probable setup. Unless something really breaks the momentum of the market, breakout looks imminent.

PT: 1000+

$Invesco S&P 500 Eq Wgt ETF(RSP.US) is breaking out on a weekly candle.

Do you know what this actually means? $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) only tells us a one dimensional picture because it is completely dominated by the top 10 mega caps like $Apple(AAPL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) etc.

The equal weight chart clearing resistance proves this rally is finally widening out to the rest of the market, not just AI names.

Look at where capital is flowing right now:

Tech & AI: Semi names like $AMD(AMD.US) and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) are keeping the AI names trend intact.

Non-AI & Cyclicals: Strong setups emerging into industrials and materials like $Alcoa(AA.US), $Caterpillar(CAT.US) and $Freeport Mcmoran(FCX.US).

Start looking for clean setups in the other 450 stocks where you can actually define your risk. AI names are getting extended and exhausted.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) went from $500B to $1T in ~50 sessions.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) went from $500B to $1T in ~250 sessions.

The parabolic move grabs all the attention, but the slower, steady expansion is always easier, safer and wiser to trade.

This is when we have to show discipline. When indices like $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US), $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US), $iShares Russell 2000(IWM.US) are at ATHs and banks like $Goldman Sachs(GS.US) are now giving 8000 and 9000 price targets, you should read in between the lines.

It's really easy to get that FOMO and force entries on extended charts just to catch a piece of the move. But this is exactly when I slow down.

The real test isn't finding another A+ setup when everything is extended. It is having the control to sit on your hands, let the best ideas come to our entries at 9 or 21ema or even better 50ma.

Wait for the levels to reset so you can actually define your risk. Protect the capital first.

We have yet another high Capex crash.

$Zscaler(ZS.US) beat expectations on the top and bottom lines. But the market does not care about last quarter or last year. A weak forward outlook completely erased a multi week technical run up in a single session.

I call this a "widow maker" candle today. The gap down completely bypassed the 9 and 21ema levels along with IPO Avwap, wiping out anyone who tried to buy the run up early.

When growth names issue weak guidance, the drop is violent.

No matter what your profession is, remember this: You do not need to know what every single company does to trade the market successfully.

It is incredibly easy to get overwhelmed trying to memorize the entire ecosystem. You might understand the core business models of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), or $AMD(AMD.US), but you don't need to know the deep internal details of $Celestica(CLS.US), $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US), $Kulicke and Soffa(KLIC.US), $IonQ(IONQ.US), or $Applied Digital(APLD.US). I know SpaceX, $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US), $Planet Labs(PL.US). I made money on $Firefly Aerospace(FLY.US), $York Space(YSS.US), $Echostar(SATS.US) but doesnt exactly know what they do, as I don't need to for a trade.

It is not our job to be a corporate historian for thousands of stocks.

Keep it simple(KISS). Focus entirely on the setups you understand, the key levels you know, and the frameworks you can repeat.

The market doesn't pay you for knowing the most trivia, it pays you for executing your specific edge with discipline. Simplify the process.

I finally started watching Off Campus on Prime Video. I completely get the dopamine hit part. I knew it's not "Just a college hockey drama "😂

This tweet is only for folks who don't know why Micron is important. If you already understand, skip this tweet.

We all obsess over Micron ($Micron Tech(MU.US)) technicals, earnings, and cheap PEGs. But have you ever stopped to ask why memory suddenly became as valuable as oil?

I will try to explain in simple terms.

Think about what happens when you type a prompt into ChatGPT or Gemini.

The AI doesn't just instantly know the answer. To generate a single sentence, it has to instantly look up billions of variables across its entire AI model data. Right?

If that data is sitting on standard storage hardware like $Western Digital(WDC.US), $Seagate Tech(STX.US), or $Sandisk(SNDK.US) drives far away in an AI data center like $Applied Digital(APLD.US), $Nebius(NBIS.US), or $IREN(IREN.US), it takes too long to travel to the processing chip. The fast $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) processor chip ends up idling, completely wasted, waiting for the data to arrive. This creates a massive speed bottleneck.

High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) solves this by placing a super fast data reservoir directly inside the chip package right next to the processor. There is no travel distance and no delay.

When you hit enter on a prompt, advanced memory feeds those billions of data points into the processor instantly. Without Micron's memory physically attached to the chip, the most powerful AI processors in the world are completely paralyzed.

If there are still people who have doubts about Microns prominence or says it's "overrated" and"cyclical", I would assume they may never understand what it is.

Trade Review: The Micron Breakout and the 9ema setup. $Micron Tech(MU.US) | $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM.US) | $Western Digital(WDC.US)

I started seeing grey hair just because of this $United Microelectronics(UMC.US). This one never bothered to give me an entry, forget about 21 I didnt even get a 9ema entry. It is what it is! Moving on from it for now.