Jim

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) Took a Trip Around the Moon....

Fully Round Tripped Their IPO Price

PUMP AND DUMP -

Now the 8/21 is NEGATIVE it will most likely Reject that line for awhile until a Short Squeeze Takes Place.

The Challenge though - When the Lock up Ends - These Guys will want to Cash Out.

⚾️ MARKET SCORECARD ⚾️

The pitcher has thrown 5 pitches this year.

❌ BALL #1 = $IGV (Software)

❌ BALL #2 = $MAGS (Magnificent 7)

❌ BALL #3 = $SpaceX(SPCX.US) (Still in IPO price discovery)

✅ STRIKE #1 = $Micron Tech(MU.US)

✅ STRIKE #2 = $Sandisk(SNDK.US)

Why?

The market isn't rewarding software and crowded AI trades right now.

It's rewarding the picks and shovels.

🔹 DRAM

🔹 HBM

🔹 NAND

🔹 Memory Infrastructure

🔹 AI Datacenter Buildout

Everyone wants to talk about AI.

The market is paying people who own the memory required to run it.

The Gold Rush wasn't won by the miners.

It was won by the people selling the shovels.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $SMH $SPY $QQQ

⚾️ Current Count:

3 Balls, 2 Strikes

And the next pitch arrives with Micron earnings this week. 📈 June 24th.

🎯 MU Earnings Expected Move: ±$210 (±17.6%)

Current Price: $1,190

Bull Target: $1,400

Bear Target: $980

Expected Move = Stock Price × IV × √(Days/365)

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Price = $1,190.20

7-Day IV = 127.5% !!!!!

Earnings = June 24 AH

Using the weekly expiration immediately after earnings (June 26)

Calculation

Expected Move =

$1,190.20 × 1.275 × √(7/365)

√(7/365) = 0.1385

Expected Move ≈

$1,190.20 × 1.275 × 0.1385

Expected Move ≈ $210

Market Pricing

$1,190 ± $210

My Read

The market is essentially saying:

🟢 Beat + Raise + HBM commentary remains supply constrained

= $1,350-$1,450

🟡 Beat but guide merely "good"

= $1,200-$1,300

🔴 Any sign HBM demand is slowing or pricing is peaking

= $950-$1,050

This isn't just a Micron earnings report.

It's the scoreboard for the entire AI Memory Supercycle. 🚀🧠📈

MICRON SAMSUNG SK HYNIX

#AI #Semiconductors #MemorySupercycle #Investing #Stocks $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $Sandisk(SNDK.US)

@smartertrader @Banana3Stocks @blondebroker1 @TradexWhisperer @Micro2Macr0 @astocks92 @SuperLuckeee @itsmichaelluu @StockPatternPro

Decent Night in Asia.

$Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) Holding $64K and Japan Pushing 72K.

Good start for our Monday Fam.

Eyes Up!

0.91 PUTS On Deck - Might Be Trapped if they get stuck and have to Vanna Snap Close quick.

Let's watch the Pre-Market Activity!

Why I am NOT overly Bearish...

$SPY

$QQQ

We could Dip Yes, Mechanics of FOMC and Dividend Payment tomorrow, Asia Digest is on deck right now. Sure....

But the July T-Bill Buying Cluster From the NY FED Around 4th of July is Strong!

Within 9 Days in July is +$15B in T-Bill buying.

That helps our Gain Window Ramp into Late July.

2026 Bar 55 to Bar 89 Window in Review....

GAIN WINDOW

@Banana3Stocks @blondebroker1 @Micro2Macr0 @BeardoTrader @Mr_Derivatives

@StockPatternPro @Norseman1

$SPY $SPX

Missed the Iran Peace Deal gap up?

So what.

Trading isn't about catching every move.

It's about finding Asymmetric opportunities and managing risk.

Current thesis:

📍 SPY: ~$753 SPOT PRICE

🎯 Measured Move: $775 by July 31

Why?

✅ FOMC behind us after June 17

✅ No FOMC until July 28

✅ July earnings expectations ramp higher

Instead of going "all in," think in Units.

1 Unit = maximum risk.

Scale in to 1 Total Unit !

• 0.25R initial entry

• 0.25R on confirmation

• 0.25R on momentum

• 0.25R on trend continuation

If the thesis fails?

📉 Lose 1R.

If the thesis works?

📈 Capture 2–4R.

The goal isn't to predict every move.

The goal is to consistently find trades where the reward justifies the risk.

🎯 Think in Units.

🎯 Hunt Asymmetry.

🎯 Let expectancy do the heavy lifting.

Think in Units. Not Dollars.

📉 Small Losses

📈 Large Winners

🎯 Positive Expectancy

#SPY #OptionsTrading #RiskManagement #Trading #Investing

$MAGS RECOVERY NEEDS FOLLOW THROUGH.

$SMH + $QQQ IS HOT.

$MAGS JUST RECLAIMING the EMA POSITIVE FLIP IS ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A RALLY.

FOR NOW - GOOD START TO THE WEEK.

EYES UP ON THIS ONE.

$VIX SUPPRESSION - NO VEGA

Don't Go Chasing Waterfalls......

If YOU BUY PUTS BECAUSE YOU WANT TO FADE THE GAP UP.

REALIZE THERE IS NO VEGA ON YOUR SIDE.

SO THETA DECAY HITS YOUR PUT OVERNIGHT AND VEGA DOES NOT EXPAND "SIGNIFICANTLY" TO PAY YOU.

PUTS AT 16 is a slippery slope... losing trade for now.

To each is own, just saying...

A very Wild 6 Days of Trading Fam!

June 5th to June 12th.

Friday the 5th, during Blood Red Chip day, I went long!!

It was so hectic I would not want followers to trade into that with me as it was a very high-risk bounce play.

On Monday, I sold All those Longs as the market started turning over.

Also Monday I went Short Apple 🍎 at $315 for $310, this was a Banger Over Night at WWDC Failed as usual and Apple dropped.

I sold Apple the next day at $289.

Total overnight Smash!

Then I went short Spy at $737 for $725. I sold it too early but it was a good trade.

A wild week of flip Flops.

I never really nailed The top or bottoms but I did stay unemotional and nimble. That's the Key!

Go with the Flow Fam.

Be Tied to Nothing other than Price, Direction, and Flow!

$SPY $QQQ $Apple(AAPL.US)

AIR. LAND. SEA. MARKETS.

$SPY $QQQ $SPX $SMH $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

My entire life has been built around one thing:

Conquering fear.

At 20 years old, I was a U.S. Army Jumpmaster — jumping out of aircraft and leading others into the unknown.

I’ve scuba dived shipwrecks in the Bahamas, surrounded by deep blue water and silence.

I’ve climbed Half Dome and stood on the Diving Board, 4,000 feet above Yosemite Valley.

And today, I trade options daily, weekly, and yearly — where fear shows up in a different uniform.

But the lesson never changed.

Everything you want in life is on the other side of fear.

Want to start a business?

That’s fear of failure.

Want to ask the girl out?

That’s fear of rejection.

Want to get rich?

That’s fear of losing money.

Want to trade stocks and options?

That’s fear of being wrong, fear of drawdown, fear of watching the market move against you.

But here’s the truth:

Fear is not the enemy.

Fear is the gatekeeper.

The sooner you learn to look directly through it, the sooner you start truly living.

A visceral life.

A dangerous life.

A meaningful life.

A life where you actually chase the goals most people only talk about.

Markets are fear and greed.

Life is fear and courage.

And the people who win are the ones who learn to move forward anyway.

Everything you want is on the other side of fear.

Go get it. 🪂🌊⛰️📈🔥

If we get a IRAN DEAL Actually Signed, Not a Fake Out and The NY FED IS BUYING T-BILLS That can help Banking Liquidity in JUNE + JULY.

The NY Fed schedule shows 5 planned Treasury bill purchase operations from June 16 to July 9, 2026.

Total maximum operation size: $26.550B

Biggest planned liquidity-add dates:

June 16: $6.638B

July 1: $6.637B

July 9: $6.637B

Breakdown:

1–4 month bills: $19.912B across 3 operations

4–12 month bills: $6.638B across 2 operations

Roughly 75% of planned purchases are concentrated in 1–4 month bills

Important nuance: this is maximum planned operation size, not guaranteed final execution. It is SOMA Treasury bill buying for reserve management, not automatically “QE” in the classic long-duration bond-buying sense.

FYI...

@StockPatternPro @Banana3Stocks @Micro2Macr0 @blondebroker1 @BeardoTrader

Who's Really Knows Fam - $SPY

Either way we want to CLOSE above the 8 EMA

Iran's Fars News Agency Says Given That The U.S. Has Accepted The Text Proposed By Iran, The Likelihood Of This Text Being Approved By Iran Is High; Iran Has Not Given A Final Response Yet

EXTREME FEAR HERE WE COME!

AFTER THE STRIKES ON IRAN TONIGHT - HOT PPI WE SHOULD BE FIRM IN EXTREME FEAR!

$QQQ DEFENDING THE WEEKLY 8-EMA FOR NOW.

LOOKS LIKE WAVE 2 TO ME.

HOW DO WE GET WAVE 3?

TRUMP/IRAN DE-ESCALATION

DEAL SIGNED

PUTS CLOSE, VANNA SNAP RALLY INTO FOMC.

UNLIKELY - JUST GAMING IT OUT.

$SPY WEEKLY AT WAR WITH THE WEEKLY 8-EMA.

$729

STILL BULLISH BUT NEED TO DEFEND THIS LEVEL 100%.

$SPY In times of CHOP - LIKE NOW I Use Doyle's System to Accumulate Gains via "SMALL POTS" with the HOPES to Later Play a BIG POT.

SMALL POTS = 0DTE to 3DTE Calls/Puts

BIG POTS LEAP LONG or LEAP Short

STUDY SUPER SYSTEM IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR GAME THEORY ADVANTAGES.

In his seminal 1979 book Super/System, Doyle Brunson described his signature aggressive strategy—often called "Long Ball Poker" or "Power Poker"—as wanting to "pick up small pots" (win them uncontested without a fight).Accumulating those consistent, small wins funds the more speculative, "big pot" gambles against players holding overpairs or second-best hands.

BACKGROUND:

Twice-world champion and Hall of Famer Doyle Brunson and five leading experts in their various specialties tell you when to raise, call, bet, and fold at hold 'em (limit and no-limit), 7-stud (high and low), draw poker, and lowball.

This is the must-have book for serious poker players.

$SPY

After close yesterday, (4:00pm to 4:15pm) I took the Inflation Report Swing Play PUT.

Closed at the open!

Quick hit and out!

Picking up Small Pots 👊

$SPY TESTED $722 Yesterday and Filled the MAY 6th GAP.

NOW there is a Support Shelf at $737.

This is the GAMMA FLIP ZONE and GOLDEN FIB EXTENSION OFF THE SWING LOW AND SWING HIGH.

$697 - $630 = $67

$67 x 1.618 = $108

$630 + $108 = $738 GOLDEN FIB EXTENSION

FLIP BEAR BELOW CLOSE

FLIP BULL ABOVE AND CLOSE

MARKET IS UNDECIDED - MOSTLY DUE TO WAR, BANKS, INFLATION ECT.

MACRO VIEW IS CLOUDY AT BEST

NFA

The market is offering investors a choice: $SPY $SPX

📈 Buy NOW at $736 and accept uncertainty.

📉 Wait for $716 or $700 and hope fear gives you a better entry.

🚀 Wait for confirmation above $744 or $750 and pay a higher price for proof.

Target remains the same:

🎯 $SPY 800 by year-end.

Risk/Reward Matrix:

• $736 → $800 = +8.7%

• $716 → $800 = +11.7%

• $700 → $800 = +14.3%

• $744 → $800 = +7.5%

• $750 → $800 = +6.7%

The difference?

The market charges a premium for certainty.

The Macro Gauntlet is here:

⚠️ CPI

⚠️ PPI

⚠️ Iran / Oil Risk

⚠️ Global Central Banks

⚠️ FOMC & Dot Plot

⚠️ Hindenburg Omen Clusters

You don't get paid for predicting the future.

You get paid for managing uncertainty better than everyone else.

For me, this isn't an all-in moment.

It's a position sizing moment.

Risk Reward Visual Comparison Attached.

NFA

#SPY #QQQ #SMH #FOMC #CPI #OptionsTrading #HardwoodCapital

I am hoping for EXTREME FEAR BY NEXT WEEK FOMC.

THEN WE CAN ALL CHILL AND GET GOOD ENTRY FOR A SUMMER GAIN WINDOW THAT DOES NOT INCLUDE A FED MEETING UNTIL JULY 28th!

$SPY WEEKLY STILL PRETTY HEALTHY -

ABOVE THE WEEKLY 8 EMA

IF WAVE 1 WAS 9 WEEKS

WAVE 2 COULD BE 2-3 WEEKS PULL BACK

LANDING ON THE 8 EMA OF $731

THEN WAVE 3 LAUNCH MODE JULY AUG SEPT!

12 WEEKS =p

I LIKE IT.....

JUNE IS OUR RESET MONTH!

$SPX 57/43 = You Really Want 50/50 to be Bullish.

$DRAM $SMH $SPY $QQQ

BEARISH TILT -

🍎 $Apple(AAPL.US)

June 18, 2026 $310 PUT

Position Summary

Contracts: 35

Average Cost: $4.41

Current Price: $20.46

Current Position Value: $71,400

Capital Invested: $15,423.55

Open P/L: +$55,976.45

Return: +362.92% (2Day Gain)

Today's Damage to the Bulls

Today's Gain: +$34,755

Daily Return: +94.84%

Nearly doubling the position in a single trading session.

Greeks Analysis:

Greek

Value

Interpretation

Delta

-0.9319

Behaving almost like short 93 shares of AAPL per contract

Gamma

0.0117

Small additional acceleration

Theta

-0.1095

Only ~$11/day decay per contract

Vega

0.0610

Benefits from higher IV

Rho

-0.0315

Minimal impact

Hardwood Capital Read:

This isn't really an option anymore.

It's becoming synthetic short stock.

With:

35 contracts

Delta ≈ -93

Effectively controlling:

~3,260 shares short $Apple(AAPL.US)

without having to borrow stock.

Alert System

I've established a professional scaling framework:

✅ Alert at $21

✅ Alert at $22

✅ Alert at $23

✅ Alert at $24

✅ Alert at $25

This accomplishes two things:

Removes emotion

Allows partial profit-taking decisions

Elite traders plan exits before the market forces them to.

Position Evolution

June 8

Cost Basis:

$4.41

June 9

Current:

$20.46

Gain:

+364%

Risk Management

The question becomes:

What type of trade is this now?

Option Trade?

No.

Swing Trade?

Not anymore.

Wealth Preservation Exercise?

Absolutely!!

At this stage, many professionals ask:

"How much of this gain do I refuse to give back?"

Because protecting $56,000 can be more important than chasing another $20,000.

Hardwood Capital Framework

Initial Goal:

Profit from a breakdown in AAPL.

Current Reality:

Trade thesis validated.

New Objective:

Transition from:

Profit Generation

to

Capital Preservation!!!

The Psychological Trap

The biggest mistake after a 300–400% winner is:

believing every dollar earned belongs to you forever.

Markets don't care.

The trade has moved from:

Offensive Mode 🟢

to

Defensive Mode 🔴

Hardwood Capital Summary

"Elite traders don't just know how to enter. They know when the mission has been accomplished."

Thesis: ✅

Execution: ✅

Alerts: ✅

Greeks: Favorable

Capital Preservation Discussion: Required

This is exactly how professionals turn large winners into realized gains instead of round-tripping life-changing trades back to breakeven.