Jim

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) Dead Money -

Earnings Tomorrow After the bell, could weigh on $QQQ as they fall to $100.

Problem: Data Centers in Space

Problem: Endless Supply of Shares

Problem: LockUp Ending For Some - Selling Continues.

Under $100 Kinda Interested, at $80 I am a Buyer with 2 Year Leaps, Maybe 3 Year.

They need until 2030 to REALLY Smash IMO

30% Shares are SHORT Right Now

Price BELOW 8 EMA and Money Flow Negative

NFA

@StockPatternPro

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) = >>>>triple-bottom structure in Williams %R, with three separate tests near the −100 extreme-oversold zone in late July.

Earnings are August 10th with 100% Implied Volatility.

More importantly, price appears to have made lower lows while Williams %R held roughly equal lows.

That creates a potential bullish momentum divergence: selling pressure pushed price lower, but the oscillator did not deteriorate further.

What confirms the reversal:

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) at $30.29 and reclaimed:

8 EMA: $29.18

200-day MA: $30.22

The next confirmation zone is tight:

50-day MA: $30.63

21 EMA: $30.91

A daily close above $30.90–$31.00 would strengthen the reversal setup. Then the next upside level is the Bollinger midpoint near $32.44.

Risk levels

The pattern weakens if price loses $27.57–$27.77 again. The lower Bollinger Band around $25.42 is the deeper support level.

Bottom line: Triple bottom in the oscillator—yes. Bullish divergence—likely.

But the price reversal becomes much more credible only after $Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US) clears and holds $31, followed by $32.40.

@Liathetrader @alc2022 @NighthawkTradez @himshouse

$SPY — AS SIMPLE AS I CAN PUT IT

$SPX $QQQ $SMH

The market has started a new rally attempt, but one green day does not confirm the bottom.

The timeline

Day 1: Thursday, July 30

Day 2: Friday, July 31

Day 3: Monday, August 3

Follow-Through Day window:

Tuesday, August 4 through Friday, August 7

During that window, $SPY needs to deliver a true Jump Across the Creek:

A powerful green candle, preferably +1.25% or more, closing through the $750–$755 resistance zone on volume higher than the previous session.

That would show institutions are stepping back in and confirm that this recovery attempt has real buying power behind it—similar to the April 8 Follow-Through Day shown on the chart.

What could create the catalyst?

The cleanest path would be:

IRAN MOU SIGNED. TERMS AGREED. WAR RISK PREMIUM REMOVED.

That could help:

Push oil lower

Ease inflation expectations

Cool PCE pressure

Stabilize Treasury yields

Allow capital to rotate back into risk assets

What happens without confirmation?

Without the high-volume breakout, this remains only a Vanna bounce.

$SPY could reject near resistance, fade back into August chop and potentially revisit the $729–$730 recovery low, with the July lows coming back into play if that support fails.

There are only 67 trading sessions from July 31 through the November 3 election, including Election Day and excluding Labor Day.

The market needs clarity.

Inflation needs to cool.

Oil needs to cool.

The war premium needs to disappear.

GET THE DEAL DONE.

THE PEOPLE ARE OVER THE ENDLESS WAR.

@WhiteHouse @SecScottBessent @SecRubio @VP @PressSec @federalreserve @SecWar

$SPY is at the GAMMA Flip ZONE $737

Does this Tactical Bounce have teeth or is it just a Vanna Put Closing Rally?

$Apple(AAPL.US) I want to talk to the Cats who Took 12 Million Shares at $342/343 Today only to Create a Indecisive Bearish Spinning Top Doji.

July 28 candle:

Open: $340.03

High: $342.89

Low: $335.60

Close: $339.75

The real body is only $0.28, while the full intraday range is $7.29.

Buyers pushed toward $343, sellers knocked it down near $335.60, and price finished almost exactly where it opened.

🚨 THE GLOBAL SELLOFF DOESN’T SLEEP — IT ROTATES.

Wall Street sells off.

The U.S. closes.

Japan opens and catches the fear.

China, Hong Kong and Taiwan stay under pressure.

Then Korea wakes up—with leverage, margin and memory stocks sitting directly in the blast zone.

By the time America wakes up, U.S. futures are already reacting to the damage overseas.

This is the danger of a 24-hour fear loop:

USA weakness → Asia liquidation → KOSPI pressure → U.S. futures weakness → repeat.

When markets are highly leveraged, selling can create more selling. Margin calls do not care about your conviction.

⚠️ Size down.

⚠️ Protect capital.

⚠️ Do not blindly buy the first dip.

When one market closes in fear, the next can open in panic.

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

I know @Norseman1 Loves Waves so this is for you bud! =p

Can You See it X Fam???

WAVE 1 The Big Bang

Wave 2 Cool Down Retest

Wave 3 Early Peak

Wave 4 Retrace Half of Wave 3

Wave 5 Blow Off Top

Wave A - Retracement Back to 4 The Last Consolidation Zone

Wave B = Bull Trap

Wave C = Capitulation....... $718

Destination Back to Wave 2 Consolidation Zone.

Then after the Darkest Night Comes the Brightest Day.

New Dawn: Wave 1 Begins Again.... =p

I'm just the Messenger, this Elliott Wave Theory was created in 1938. =p

The best thing for this CHOP/DROP/FLIP/FLOP Market is a TOTAL FLUSH to EXTREME FEAR.

IDEALLY IMO WARSH IS A TOTAL HAWK - EVEN RAISE RATES 0.25 and THEN TRUMP UNLEASH ON IRAN TO FINISH THE JOB 100%.

We'd PULL BACK SO FAR - COLD $8T on the SIDELINES WOULD WAKE THE FUCK UP!

If you've ever had a wound, festering, the best thing is to FLUSH it WITH ALCOHOL BURN OUT ALL THE DECAY DEAD SHIT AND LET IT COME BACK HEALTHY AGAIN.

$QQQ 37 BARS OF CHOP/FLOP IS SLOW PAINFUL DEATH.

LET US GET that 100M RED VOLUME CAPITULATION CANDLE IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AND we CAN RUN ALL THE WAY TO MARCH of 2027 IMO.

$Micron Tech(MU.US) There were days this was getting $100M to $150M in Calls. Now it's $10M Calls $12M Puts.

You NEED WHALES to Move Markets.

Until Then - It's Chop

$QQQ $Destination $671 IMO 100D SMA

But getting Oversold - Not Fully Yet But Close...

I may sell My PUTS and Flip into a Long if we bounce Real hard on a Selling Capitulation Candle this week.

Need to see what the HAWKs at the FED say Plus Manage Big Cap Tech Earnings.

Patience - If you are holding Puts Make sure you book those wins and watch THETA Decay.

Ask Me questions if needed....

$Micron Tech(MU.US) will Have a RUN in Q4 to Q1.

For Now - PUMPS are BEING NET SOLD!

Memory Summer = RUBICON TRAIL

VERY HARD TO CROSS - OLD SCHOOL KNOWLEDGE

$Micron Tech(MU.US) Price Below 8/21/50 and Chinese Competition is Coming online.

Tactical Bounces Sure - All The time.

But the Multi- Month Run it had may be stalled for awhile.

$Apple(AAPL.US) vs $QQQ DEX AUG 21st

See the difference.....

$QQQ 12-13B Negative

$Apple(AAPL.US) 1-2B Positive

$QQQ has a Dead Weight Anchor on it....

$680 AUG 21st

$JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)

1. Above the 8 EMA

2. Elder Force Above Zero

3. MACD Positive

8/21/50/100 Trending Higher

BOOOLISH $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US)

'Houthis say they don’t seek to close key Bab al-Mandeb Strait' - The Times Of Israel

What's Funny - These Cats Taking Pot Shots at Anakin in his POD Racer Now Control the $45T USA Stock Market Lol

Add to that the Kospi Margin Junkies and we got GUMBO Salad.

What's Your Assessment of the Situation Gunny?

It's a Cluster Fuck Sir....

MARKET WHIPSAW ISN’T JUST A TECH STORY

The violent rotation is spreading across the entire market.

Airlines went from -16%, to +34%, then back to -12%.

Home furniture swung from -20%, to +26%, then reversed -8%.

Homebuilders and restaurants are showing the same pattern.

This is what a chaotic tape looks like:

sharp selloffs, aggressive relief rallies, then another fast reversal as capital constantly rotates between sectors.

The lesson is simple: do not confuse a short-term bounce with a durable trend.

In this environment, we protect capital, scale entries, take profits when offered and avoid chasing extended moves.

Tech may get the headlines, but the whipsaw is happening everywhere.

Stay agile.

Respect the tape.

Paper cut losses before they become deep wounds.

PROTECT CAPITAL..... 💯

Today’s -0.32% loss is a paper cut—not a reason to force trades, revenge trade, or overextend.

In an early-morning chop regime, the goal is simple:

PAPER CUT.

PAPER CUT.

PAPER CUT.

Keep losses small.

Stay agile.

Reduce size when conditions are unclear.

Rotate into protection when the tape weakens.

Cash, hedges, puts, or simply doing nothing are all valid positions.

We do not need to win every trading day.

We need to protect enough capital and confidence to press when the market finally gives us a high-probability setup.

Small losses keep us in the game.

Big losses take us out.

Protect today. Profit tomorrow.

Losses are part of the Game, How big is Part of Your Strategy and Abilty to Manage Risk.

The Dunning–Kruger Effect in Options Trading

After nearly 20 years of trading options, one lesson has become crystal clear:

The more you learn, the more you realize how much you still do not control.

New traders often enter the market feeling certain. They find one indicator, one strategy, or one winning trade—and suddenly believe they have cracked the code.

Then the market introduces them to:

Theta decay. IV crush. Bad fills. Overnight gaps. Earnings surprises. Position sizing. Liquidity. And trades that were “right” but still lost money.

That is the awareness gap.

It is where confidence falls, but real growth begins.

Experience does not teach you how to predict every move. It teaches you how to survive when your prediction is wrong.

After 20 years, I do not approach a trade believing I know exactly what will happen. I evaluate the probability, define my risk, choose my expiration, size the position, and prepare for multiple outcomes.

That is the difference between confidence and competence.

Beginners seek certainty. Experienced traders manage probability.

For those of you learning, do not be embarrassed when the market humbles you. Every serious trader has been there. Study the loss, protect your capital, ask questions, and keep building your process.

The goal is not to become fearless.

The goal is to become disciplined enough that being wrong does not remove you from the game.

Confidence gets you started. Humility, risk management, and experience keep you trading.

NFA.

Education and risk management always come first.

🚨 ASIA IS BLEEDING — AND THE KOSPI DRAGON IS STILL ASLEEP.

More than $600B erased in two days as tech and memory stocks get crushed.

South Korea was closed today, but it reopens Monday before the U.S. cash session—with traders heavily leveraged and sitting on margin.

⚠️ That could mean forced selling, circuit breakers, and another violent semiconductor move.

Respect the risk.

Size down.

Do not confuse a dip with a bottom.

$SMH 17 BARS of Distribution

$QQQ 29 BARS of Distribution

$SPY 18 BARS of Distribution + 12 Bars of Minor Accumulation

Gold Mines or Landmines Since June.

The Summer of the Flip Flops....

Everything you want is on the other side of fear.

In the stock market, that truth gets tested every single day.

Buying strength feels good.

Buying hype feels easy.

Buying what everyone already agrees with feels safe.

But buying fear?

That’s the hardest thing you’ll ever do in trading.

Because fear never shows up politely.

It shows up as red candles, bad headlines, panic, doubt, and the sick feeling that maybe this time it really is different.

That’s why most people can’t do it.

They want the reward, but they can’t stomach the discomfort required to earn it.

The market transfers money from the emotional to the disciplined.

And discipline often looks like stepping in when everyone else is backing away.

Not recklessly.

Not blindly.

But with a plan, risk management, and the courage to act when opportunity is disguised as pain.

Buying fear is uncomfortable.

That’s exactly why it can pay.

The edge is rarely found where it feels good.

It’s found where conviction is tested.

If you can learn to stay calm in chaos, think clearly in panic, and execute while others freeze — you put yourself on the right side of the trade.

Everything you want is on the other side of fear.

In trading, sometimes that means pressing buy when your emotions are begging you not to.

NFA

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) UNDER THE HOOD -

TRIED TO BREAK OUT BUT WALL-STREET SHUT IT DOWN FOR NOW.

SEEMS LIKE IT IS IN THE PENALTY BOX TRYING TO RECLAIM $205.

I think MOST PEOPLE JUST SELL CALLS AGAINST $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) WHICH IS WHY IT DOES NOT BREAK OUT LIKE $AMD(AMD.US) OR $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Intel(INTC.US)

It can RUN just going to take time.

I still like the $210 or $220 SEPT 18th Call should we hold $200.

$SPY

The Wedge of Truth + the latest AAII Bulls/Bears sentiment indecision.

1/

The Wedge of Truth is here.

$SPY is compressing into CPI/PPI next week while investor sentiment is almost perfectly split.

This is not a clean bull breakout.

This is not full bear capitulation.

This is a market waiting for inflation data to pick the next direction.

2/

AAII sentiment for the week ending 7/8/2026:

Bullish: 36.3%

Neutral: 26.5%

Bearish: 37.2%

That is about as indecisive as it gets.

Bears only lead bulls by 0.9 percentage points.

Nobody has control yet.

3/

What stands out to me:

Historical averages show:

Bullish average: 37.5%

Neutral average: 31.5%

Bearish average: 31.0%

Current sentiment is not euphoric.

Bulls are slightly below average.

Bears are still above average.

That means the wall of worry is alive.

4/

This matters because $SPY is sitting inside a technical compression zone.

We’ve had lower highs since $760.40.

Recently, $SPY rejected near $752.

Now price is hovering around:

Close: $746.05

8 EMA: $745.16

21 EMA: $743.16

50 SMA: $740.25

That is tight.

Very tight.

5/

The wedge is saying the same thing the sentiment survey is saying:

The market is not committed.

Bulls are not chasing aggressively.

Bears are not pressing enough to break it down.

Everyone is waiting for the same thing....

Inflation data!!

6/

Next week’s key catalysts:

Tuesday, July 14: CPI

Wednesday, July 15: PPI

Both at 8:30 AM ET.

These prints likely shape July positioning and the market’s view of year-end FOMC risk.

Cool data = bulls get oxygen.

Hot data = bears get ammo.

7/

Bull case:

$SPY holds 743–745, reclaims 752, then attacks 760.

That would tell me the wedge is resolving higher and the market is willing to look through inflation risk.

A reclaim of $752 is the first real confirmation.

Until then, it’s still compression.

8/

Bear case:

$SPY loses 743, then especially the 50 SMA near 740.

That would put the wedge at risk of breaking lower.

If CPI/PPI come in hot, the market may start pricing in more hawkish Fed pressure into year-end.

That opens the door toward the 730s.

9/

The key takeaway:

AAII sentiment is split.

$SPY is compressed.

Inflation data is the catalyst.

This is why I’m calling this setup:

The Wedge of Truth.

The next move likely comes from CPI/PPI, not opinions.

Trade the reaction.

Protect capital first.

Prepare for expansion either way.

Not financial advice.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) is not just an AI model trade.

It is a cash-flow machine with Search, YouTube, Cloud, Android, Workspace, Gemini, TPUs, and Waymo all stacked together.

The bull case is simple:

Google can make AI cheap, useful, deeply embedded, and massively distributed.

That is why $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) may be one of the cleanest mega-cap AI value trades on the board.

Main risks to watch: antitrust remedies, heavy AI capex, and margin pressure if AI infrastructure costs rise faster than monetization.

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)

Gemini 3.5 Flash at $9 per million output tokens is the standout value layer here.

That is roughly:

70% cheaper than OpenAI

64% cheaper than Claude Opus

82% cheaper than Claude Fable

DeepSeek wins raw low-cost pricing.

But Google brings the full machine:

@WarrenPies