Paradi Lab

Paradis Stock Report: Harmonic Drive Systems (6324)

For upstream humanoid exposure. (Disclosure: I hold a position).

I have mentioned HDS a few times in my humanoids article and in various comments.

-> Here's my technical research article that I wrote a few months ago for a few buy-side institutions.

(With updated financials and amended/shortened for my anonymity and integrity to paying firms. Some customer mapping etc. may need updating also):

Report:

Every humanoid demo you have seen - Figure pouring a coffee, Optimus folding a shirt, a Unitree robot doing a backflip - leans on a very specific component almost nobody outside the motion control world can name.

Before the model decides to move the hand and before the motor delivers torque, something has to convert a low-torque rotor into the precise, high-torque rotation a wrist or finger actually needs.

That something is a precision reducer.

And in the highest precision joints, the reducer of record for 40 years has been the strain-wave gear.

Invented, branded, and still dominated at the premium end by one company: Harmonic Drive Systems (6324).

First, a piece of housekeeping:

- The entity that matters is the Japanese parent, listed on the Tokyo Prime Market.

- It owns 100% of Harmonic Drive SE in Germany (the former Harmonic Drive AG) and a majority of Harmonic Drive LLC in Beverly, Massachusetts.

- It is not a Nidec company. Nidec-Shimpo is a separate competitor, and Harmonic Drive actually sold its policy stake in fellow reducer-maker Nabtesco during the year to March 2025.

Their flagship product is a simple three-part assembly:

1. a wave generator

2. a thin walled steel cup called a flexspline

3. a rigid circular spline

[I've removed some technical stuff cos it can get boring quickly]

Harmonic Drive sells this as component sets (the CSF, CSG, SHF and SHG families), as integrated AC servo actuators bundling a frameless motor, the gear and an encoder (the SHA and FHA lines), and as lower-ratio planetary units for less demanding joints.

In a six-axis industrial arm or a cobot, this is the gear in the wrist, forearm and elbow.

The heavy base and shoulder axes belong to RV cycloidal reducers, where Nabtesco holds something like 60% of the world market; harmonic and cycloidal are complements far more than competitors.

The same strain-wave gear shows up in semiconductor wafer-handling and lithography stages, in surgical robots. In aerospace, Harmonic Drive units have flown on NASA's Curiosity and Perseverance rovers.

The customer map broadly reads like a census of the automation industry: FANUC, Yaskawa, ABB, KUKA, Kawasaki, Universal Robots, plus a long tail of semiconductor equipment and medical device OEMs.

[I've removed some speculative numbers and customers]

For analysts considering the bull-case optionality:

The moat is in the process, and specifically in one component: the flexspline. That thin steel cup is elastically deformed millions of times over its life, and it is the part that fails.

Patent and engineering literature is blunt about this...the flexspline fatigues, and the cheap routes to making one wreck its cycle life. Bulk-metallic-glass flexsplines crack at far lower cycle counts because their fracture toughness is a fraction of forged steel's. 3D printed metal flexsplines carry porosity and surface roughness defects that, in the words of one patent filing, dramatically reduce their lifetimes.

[Patent/IP stuff is boring, so I have removed]

Harmonic Drive's proprietary tooth profiles (the "IH" generation and its successors) spread load across many teeth meshing at once, which is how you buy fatigue margin without buying weight.

It is an empirical feedback loop: decades of field-return data from satellites, wafer handlers and arms running under extreme duty, fed back into design margins.

Layered on top is qualification lock-in:

In aerospace, semiconductor and medical applications, the reducer is designed into a system that then takes 12 to 24 months to re-certify if you swap it. Once a Harmonic Drive part is flight or fab qualified, the switching cost is the re-qualification programme.

That locks revenue for years, and in aerospace it is close to permanent.

Now moving onto the core demand vector: Humanoids

The narrative premium is humanoids and maths can be seductive.

A humanoid uses somewhere between 20 and 40 reducers across its joints, a mix of harmonic and planetary.

At a Harmonic-grade ASP frequently cited near $800 a unit, 100,000 humanoids is on the order of $1.6B of harmonic-reducer demand which is a 5-10x TAM expansion against today's industrial base.

From supply chain mapping, unit numbers are finally inflecting off zero:

Harmonic Drive has started to book real, if small, humanoid orders. Roughly ¥1.3B in a single quarter, around ¥2.5B guided for the year to March 2026, with management telling analysts the following year could double or triple that, and the count of potential humanoid customers climbing past 15, concentrated in Japan and North America.

In my view, this is the closest thing the listed world has to a pure play on the actuator content of a humanoid joint.

For clients, there are naturally some coverage concerns however:

Coverage is thin and almost entirely Japan-desk - Goldman, Morgan Stanley MUFG, Jefferies, Macquarie, Citi, Nomura, Mizuho.

For a generalist global fund the name is genuinely hard to own:

1. A Tokyo Prime listing

2. Japanese-GAAP disclosure

3. No quarterly order detail

And a business whose irreplaceability lives in segments (semiconductor, aerospace, premium humanoid) that headline market share data (which shows Harmonic Drive losing share) actively obscures.

However, in my view, the cyclical recovery is underway:

This is not a story stock with no business. For the year to March 2026, Net sales rose 7.0% to ¥59.6B.

It is important to factor in the quarterly cadence too:

Revenue climbed ¥13.5B, ¥14.3B, ¥14.3B, ¥17.4B through the year, and EPS went from minus ¥0.40 in the first quarter to ¥8.86 in the fourth as factory utilisation recovered and the CoS ratio fell.

This is textbook fixed-cost absorption, with incremental margins reportedly above 50%.

Guidance for the year to March 2027 is for sales of ¥68.0B, up 14.2%, operating profit up 141% to ¥6.2B, and net income up 180% to ¥4.5B.

Orders are corroborating:

- full-year intake of ¥61.6B was up 16.2%, with North American reduction-gear orders up 31.3% and Japan up 26.9%.

The balance sheet removes any solvency question from the discussion:

- Roughly 72% equity ratio, net cash, operating cash flow of ¥6.4B, and enough firepower to fund a 33% expansion of the US Beverly plant by December 2026 without touching shareholders.

In May the company set a fresh five-year plan:

- ¥100B-plus in sales and a >15% operating margin by the year to March 2031.

On review, this is a fortress balance sheet attached to a genuine moat in a market that is inflecting.

Risks:

China.

Harmonic Drive's global unit share has fallen from north of 70% historically to an estimated 20% today. In China (the largest robot market) domestic suppliers now lead outright:

Leaderdrive and Zhejiang Laifual held roughly 27.5% and 21.4% of the country's robotic harmonic-reducer market by 2025 shipments.

Leaderdrive grew revenue 47% to 570.7M yuan in 2025 and more than doubled net profit, and has already fulfilled humanoid R&D orders for Tesla and Figure.

The pricing gap should be emphasised at this stage:

Chinese Tier-1 units land at circa 40-60% of Harmonic Drive's price, and that gap is widening.

Laifual's average reducer ASP fell about 30% in two years, which its own IPO prospectus framed as a deliberate share grab. Independent stress-testing puts the best Chinese parts at 70-85% of the Japanese benchmark on torque density and lifespan, but at backlash parity.

Based on discussions with [famous robotics company], for most of the joints in most of the robots, "good enough at half the price" is the whole ballgame.

Management's own long-term framing has overall strain-wave share declining toward 6% in the long run.

[Some analysis on valuations and financial modelling, removed cos it's boring]

Further, the largest humanoid programmes may design around Harmonic Drive:

Tesla designs its actuators in-house and multi-sources the reducers, including from Chinese suppliers, with teardown chatter pointing to a meaningful and rising Chinese share of Optimus content at 30-40% lower cost.

Harmonic Drive is, at best, one of several reducer sources for the biggest program and not the sole-source chokepoint the current valuation and our forecasting implies.

[More boring bits on depreciation, yen strength, cyclicality, sales geographies]

To conclude:

1. Harmonic Drive owns a qualification locked chokepoint in premium precision reducers.

2. Sits on a strong balance sheet.

3. Is one year into a credible cyclical recovery.

4. Holds the cleanest listed exposure to humanoid actuator content that exists.

If a large Western humanoid program (Figure, Apptronik, even Tesla) confirms primary source Harmonic Drive content shipping at premium prices and scale, the structural story has potential to re-rate.

You wanna invest in humanoids but you've never watched Ex Machina?

Fun fact: this film sparked my interest in AI and humanoids when it came out in 2014.

This is basically a must-watch if you're investing in $Churchill Capital XI(CCXI.US) and upstream humanoid supply chains.

To see what the future of humanoids *could* look like with bad actors at the helm.

South Korean humanoid supply chains will be crucial.

For the upcoming humanoid production ramp.

GS forecasts that 30% of humanoid components will come from South Korea by 2035.

Due to their automotive industry expertise translating over into producing humanoid parts like actuators.

Just for a quick tldr on actuators:

- they essentially mimic human muscles/joints

- actuators currently make up ~50% of the BOM for a humanoid.

- Korea has an advantage in actuator production since they're similar to auto parts tech e.g. power steering, braking systems and autonomous vehicle tech.

And "several Korean auto parts makers have already leveraged this know-how to gain a position among the leading non-Chinese suppliers of critical actuators for robotics." (GS)

So for upstream humanoid exposure...

It does seem like South Korea will have a massive role in being the key supplier for non-China humanoids.

On top of their crucial position in AI supply chains with memory from SK hynix and Samsung...

Robotics is moving so fast.

I expect deal value to 10x in the upcoming years.

With private capital flowing into companies that can manufacture at scale + win paying customers.

Some of the biggest deals so far this year include:

-> Saronic (US) w/ $1.75B Series D in March for autonomous naval vessels.

-> Skild AI (US) w/ $1.4B round for humanoid software.

-> Apptronik (US) w/ $0.94B Series A for industrial humanoids.

-> Mind Robotics spun out from $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) and raised $0.9B YTD.

There'll be plenty of public investment opportunities though.

Either by investing upstream in the suppliers that make up humanoid's BOM e.g. in actuators or perception systems.

In a similar style to the AI supply chain, going upstream to find where the winners are.

Or via pure-play robotics companies selling B2B and B2C once production ramp hits in a year or two.

Three random themes & analysis:

1. Offshore drilling

2. Salmon

3. Airlines

These aren't multi-year stories like AI, humanoids or space. But are instead catalyst driven, short term trades.

High level notes:

1. Offshore drilling

Offshore drilling equities trade like distressed cyclicals even as they strengthen contracts.

$Transocean(RIG.US) for example trades at P/B of ~0.93 & P/S ~1.8x.

So sentiment is extremely bearish even while they've been adding backlog. Generalists have abandoned oilfield services since the industry is relatively small + scarred by the 2020-21 bankruptcy wave.

In terms of potential catalysts:

- Transocean-Valaris merger (Feb 2026) needs shareholder/regulatory approval which would be a potential re-rating event.

- Management guides utilisation above 90% by late 2026, approaching 100% in 2027.

- $Transocean(RIG.US) added ~$1.6B backlog since April + recent fixtures span ~$550k/day.

Oil is obviously the key risk factor though where an oil price collapse (e.g. WTI below ~$60) triggers capex cuts + contract deferrals. That margin compression would offset any backlog gains made.

No positions here yet for me, but I do have positions further down in the Airlines section.

$Transocean(RIG.US) does look kinda compelling at these levels tho w/ their backlog growth. But do I wanna hedge the AI trade more? Not sure just yet...

2. Salmon

This one's fun.

2025 was a record supply year for salmon w/ industry supply up 18%. Which ultimately crushed spot prices.

Aggressive harvesting in Q2/Q3 2025 depleted biomass, setting up a sharp H1 2026 slowdown.

Looks like a pretty nice setup though:

- niche Oslo listed cluster of companies

- undercovered by US investors

- punished through 2025 on oversupply

- strong NOK

- Norway's resource-rent tax

Catalysts:

- Norway's salmon production fell 3% in Q1 and will fall another 2% in Q2

- which leaves global supply growth of just 0-2% in H1 2026

Prices already seem to be turning too where the benchmark salmon price was ~74 NOK/kg on June 19. Which is up ~13% over the prior month. But ofc if biology recovers fast, then that'll be the key risk.

Names if you're curious: Mowi, SalMar, Bakkafrost

I probably won't take positions here, but it's been a fun area to research recently as a break from AI/semis lol.

3. Airlines

Boeing + Airbus delivery delays are artificially capping industry capacity which protects airfares even as consumer sentiment softens.

So the airlines have a cap on capacity growth which has handed them decent pricing power e.g. fares are running ~25% higher yoy + staying sticky even as fuel falls.

So investment-grade balance sheets + collapsing fuel costs into H2 should drive margin expansion.

$Delta Air Lines(DAL.US), $United Airlines(UAL.US), and $Alaska Air(ALK.US) are the core names where you'd wanna opt on the loyalty/premium oligopoly rather than seat sales. Even w/ Spirit gone, that's why you'd want to avoid ULCCs.

If I was to summarise each name:

- Delta is the quality leaner but looks a lot more priced in at these levels.

- United is probably better risk/reward than Delta rn.

- Alaska is highest risk but highest reward.

Southwest ( $Southwest Airlines(LUV.US) ) is another name but not looked too much into them in the theme.

Ultimately all are turnaround plays but similar to offshore drilling, oil's the key risk which obvs acts as headwinds to margins. V. macro driven w/ Hormuz etc opening.

And if Spirit routes get backfilled from July (?) then fare premiums could erode quickly.

But $Delta Air Lines(DAL.US) earnings are July 9 and $United Airlines(UAL.US) mid-July so could see a re-rate if sticky fares + falling fuel costs = good guidance.

Just as a disclosure, I did take positions in $Delta Air Lines(DAL.US) as a hedge when Iran/US deal was signed - think I commented it a few times on my posts.

---

Just for a list of fun themes I'm looking at outside of AI rn.

Missing a lot of notes here tbh and it's just a spew of thoughts/info, but just don't wanna bore you guys with all the nuts and bolts lol.

NFA ofc, these are just short-term investment areas if you're wondering about ideas.

Ok guys, these $Micron Tech(MU.US) gross margins are scary high:

Q3 Estimated: 81.9%

Q3 Actual: 84.9%

Your margins wouldn't be this high even if you robbed your local liquor store.

Helping you understand today's market sell-off:

Paradis Macro Report [June 23]:

-> KOSPI closed -9.99%:

Second worst day this year, and fifth worst ever. With SK Hynix and Samsung both down over 12%.

A few drivers:

1. MSCI kept Korea in Emerging Markets which killed the passive inflows were estimated to be $24B (UBS).

2. There was also forced deleveraging of retail leverage.

3. Profit taking mainly driven by SK Hynix overtaking Samsung's market cap (viewed as a market top).

4. Profit taking ahead of $Micron Tech(MU.US) earnings tomorrow.

Retail investors tried buying the dip ($5.6B), which is the largest single-day retail net buy ever. But that wasn't enough to overcome the sell off.

Looking at current volatility levels, the drawdown in Korea looks set to continue tomorrow as more retail investors are forced to unwind positions.

-> The sell-off in Korea extended into US semiconductors:

Nasdaq fell 3.2% and the SOX fell ~7.8%.

With names like $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), and $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) all down over 10% today.

AI stock price moves are largely memory-driven. If memory goes down, so do other AI adjacent names (usually).

However, it is crucial to remember that the memory supercycle is still in tact w/ sold-out capacity all through 2026-27.

Plus hyperscalers forecasted to spend up to 50% of 2027 capex on memory alone as per SemiAnalysis.

-> Micron earnings tomorrow:

I'm personally expecting Micron to report sublime earnings and guidance tomorrow.

However, do not be surprised if the market sells the report just like last quarter.

And if you've read my previous reports, you'd note that I have been firmly against using leverage for the past few weeks.

Today's events are proof.

New $Sandisk(SNDK.US) HBF Patent:

Analysis in plain English (hopefully):

The patent is about training models, which flash is supposedly bad at.

The reason they could file it is that they found the loophole where it doesn't cover full training. Rather, it covers fine-tuning via a method called LoRA which keeps almost everything static.

Instead of retraining the whole model, you freeze it & train only a tiny add-on bolted to the side. The frozen part never changes during the process.

Sandisk's insight is if the big part never changes, you don't need expensive memory to hold it....you just need to read it, over and over again.

And reading is the one thing that cheap flash is perfectly fine at.

So the patent parks the frozen giant model on cheap flash + keeps only the tiny changing part on the expensive fast memory.

Quite elegant imo since it doesn't try to fix flash's weakness. It just makes it irrelevant.

Imo the accurate way to frame this patent is that it widens HBF's tam from pure inference into training.

And the encouraging thing for Sandisk is that the programme behind this looks real rather than theoretical e.g. partnership w/ SK hynix to turn hbf into the industry standard.

Ofc, patents aren't revenue. What'll actually matter is qualification/shipments. I.e. roadmaps.

From my understanding though, first hbf chips sample later this yr w/ first products using them arriving some time in 2027.

---

Patent number: US 2025/0390733 A1

Anthropic's valuation roared past OpenAI for the first time ever in their May fundraise.

OpenAI: $852 billion

Anthropic: $965 billion

TLDR of my “recovery” trades:

Including some new trades from last week, if anyone was interested.

In order of concentration:

1. $Credo Tech(CRDO.US) ($190) - that 18% dip after earnings was such an obvious buy-point.

2. $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) ($14) - started a sizeable position on Thursday's market close. Not sure why they're down 20%?

3. $Reddit(RDDT.US) ($150) - will add more soon.

4. $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) ($148) - pre-earnings trade from April that I still hold.

5. $Ciena(CIEN.US) ($488) - opened a position on the dip after their earnings report a couple weeks ago. Keeps dipping though lol.

6. $ServiceNow(NOW.US) ($102) - what on earth was that SaaS fake pump at the end of May? Down around 7% and plan to DCA in pre-specified tranches if it keeps dipping. Long-term hold for me for when quality SaaS makes a resurgence one day.

7. $Fabrinet(FN.US) ($570) - started a position last week, 20% dip seems aggressive on quite impressive earnings + outlook.

8. $Netflix(NFLX.US) ($77) - started the position on Thursday market close. A 40% dip in the past year is mental.

9. $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) ($63k) - not a crypto bull/expert at all, it's just a fun trade to see what happens. Will be the first to go if I need to raise cash.

As of right now, most could easily turn into longer-term holds.

Paradis Macro Report [June 17]:

FOMC Summary & AI Trade Impact (2 min read):

1. Rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, as expected.

2. But the next move could be to raise rates due to rising inflation driven by energy prices (Iran war).

3. Hawkish surprise with 9/18 participants penciling in one hike later this year (was 0 participants in March) w/ median dot at 3.8% (2026) and 3.6% (2027).

4. Five new "task forces" launched to overhaul Fed: comms, balance sheet, data, productivity/labour and inflation.

5. Forward guidance scrapped = Less public information on Fed outlook = More volatile market.

-> AI Trade Impact:

In theory:

Less guidance + higher implied volatility = structural headwind to multiples.

But, we all know that the AI trade defies logic.

So for now, the AI capex narrative is trading on its own unique fundamentals...less sensitive to rates/broader macro.

Neoclouds: A Short Story

-> $Nebius(NBIS.US): 242% YTD - "Nebius will take care of you" ( $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)'s Jensen Huang).

-> $Coreweave(CRWV.US): 67% YTD - debt machine.

-> $IREN(IREN.US): 58% YTD - excessive dilution.

Nebius will become a $100B company in Q3.

Which stock is better - $Sandisk(SNDK.US) or $Snap(SNAP.US)?

Mistral AI:

Analysis & Signals on $SIVE x $Jabil(JBL.US) Earnings (tomorrow):

Reminder: Sivers announced a collaboration with Jabil (Apr 26) to develop a 1.6T LRO pluggable transceiver for AI data centers.

Jabil's AI numbers are a leading indicator of the end demand that sizes Sivers' TAM, with their 1.6T LRO program as a direct demand channel for Sivers' DFB lasers.

Key signals from $Jabil(JBL.US)'s earnings that reinforce $SIVE's bull thesis:

1. 1.6T LRO transceiver program + ramp timing into 2027

2. TAM expansion via raising FY2026 AI revenue

3. Commentary on optical component/laser supply tightness (links to InP scarcity tailwind)

TLDR on each point:

1. 1.6T transceiver program

1.6T / SiPho / CPO commentary has the highest impact on Sivers directly.

Jabil usually highlight ramp timings etc, so even something like "1.6T pipeline strong / photonics scaling" reinforces the program's commercial trajectory.

Which in turn would be positive read-through for Sivers' tech.

Ofc, Jabil are unlikely to name a component supplier on an earnings call, and has many optical irons in the fire like its own $Intel(INTC.US) derived SiPho, CPO, NPO.

And just as a caveat: Jabil thriving in optics does not require Sivers to win...Jabil could source lasers elsewhere or lean on internal/SiPho content.

2. TAM expansion

AI durability / 2027 framing will frame Sivers' own timing.

Sivers' photonics ramp is mainly a 2027+ story, where management say "multiple ramps on track for 2027".

Jabil's Q2 call already flagged:

- A second hyperscaler ramping in Mexico

- A third in discussions

- A margin-expansion/growth setup for FY2027

So continued confident 2027 framing directly supports Sivers' conversion window.

3. Commentary on optical component/laser supply tightness

Jabil flagged memory (DDR4 and below) + PCB constraints at Q2.

Any commentary on optical component or laser tightness would corroborate the InP-scarcity tailwind that is central to the Sivers "structural chokepoint" thesis.

E.g. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) has pushed laser lead-times past 2027 + InP is constrained which supports Sivers' InP laser scarcity tailwind.

---

Just as a high level summary on the most impactful read-throughs for Sivers.

Where Jabil's earnings tomorrow can prove that optical/AI TAM is growing via their photonics/1.6T efforts.

However, it cannot prove that Sivers wins volume against vertically integrated rivals like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) / $Lumentum(LITE.US), or the dollar value / margin of Sivers' content.

That is the point I've been highlighting for a while....management execution and deal flow.

Ultimately, the Jabil program is a pluggable (LRO) play for the near-term, high-volume architecture for Sivers.

With Sivers' CPO exposure running mainly through Ayar Labs, $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US), $POET Tech(POET.US), and O-Net/Enablence.

$IQE & $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) enter a multi-year InP epiwafer supply agreement.

Do you understand how f*cking huge this is for IQE?

-> IQE is being designed into the pluggable wave + next-gen modulator/OCS roadmap.

-> Confirms IQE as a qualified, non-Chinese InP epiwafer source.

-> Diversifies IQE's optical customer base beyond $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) to foundry in $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US). So multiple Tier-1 optical anchors.

Quick fun fact: IQE sued Tower in 2022 for misappropriating trade secrets to obtain patents.

So this Tower agreement lets IQE keep optionality on RF SOI type + engineered substrate/layer transfer applications without IP risk.

And converts a former enemy into a customer - always a massive bullish signal that a company's products are critical.

Do you understand how cheap memory stocks are?

$Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), SK Hynix and Samsung: all under 8x 2027 P/E.

Throw Kioxia & Nanya in there too.

Then you've got $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang saying that the memory shortage will persist for "several years."

This is probably the most fool-proof trade globally rn.

(NFA, DYOR)

The Vatican Bank has a US equity index that tracks stocks that are "consistent with Catholic teachings"

Top 10 positions:

1. $Micron Tech(MU.US) 7.59%

2. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) 5.22%

3. $Apple(AAPL.US) 4.85%

4. $Tesla(TSLA.US) 4.68%

5. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 4.67%

6. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US) 3.52%

7. $Intel(INTC.US) 3.27%

8. $Cisco(CSCO.US) 3.25%

9. $Visa(V.US) 3.10%

10. $Home Depot(HD.US) 3.09%

Hilariously ironic index composition.

Doing extensive analysis on the wider neocloud ecosystem.

I'm curious: which one of these names is your favourite?

Ranked by market cap:

$Hut 8 Mining(HUT.US) @ $13.38B

$Galaxy Digital(GLXY.US) @ $13.01B

$Terawulf(WULF.US) @ $12.91B

$Applied Digital(APLD.US) @ $12.20B

$Cipher Digital(CIFR.US) @ $10.02B

$Core Scientific, Inc.(CORZ.US) @ $8.77B

$CleanSpark(CLSK.US) @ $4.23B

$SharonAI(SHAZ.US) @ $1.04B

$HIVE Digital Tech(HIVE.US) @ $1.38B CAD

$Whitefiber(WYFI.US) @ $953M

Any others I should look into?

Other than the obvious $Nebius(NBIS.US) / $Coreweave(CRWV.US) / $IREN(IREN.US) type names.

Disclosure:

- I personally hold positions in a lot of these companies from 2025.

- Current research is to identify the ones to increase concentration in / start new positions in.

China's control over InP exports threatens AI data centre rollout (Reuters).

With 70%+ control over global output.

Just as a reminder on beneficiaries:

-> JX Advanced Metals: ~10% InP share

-> $AXT(AXTI.US): InP >50% Q1'26 rev

-> $Lumentum(LITE.US): maybe the cleanest large cap beneficiary

-> $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): ~1 yr early to 6-inch InP production

-> $IQE: InP is "material growth driver throughout 2026 and beyond"

Sumitomo Electric win in non-Chinese InP but they're so huge that InP revenue is basically a rounding error to them.

Personally treating $AXT(AXTI.US) as a trading vehicle separately to my core hold rn after taking decent profits over the past few weeks.

As core holds, I have preference to $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) / $IQE over $AXT(AXTI.US) for InP-thematic exposure w/ less regulator risks.

- $Lumentum(LITE.US) for lower China supply beta.

- $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) for higher InP permit torque if u want it.

- $IQE for the most asymmetry

Great news! $Nebius(NBIS.US) and $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) added to the Nasdaq.

Both Nebius & Rocket Lab are going to $100B by the end of 2026.

Especially with forced passive buying via index inclusion.

I'm not a $Coreweave(CRWV.US) fan, but they've also been added to the index too - huge for any investors.

I don't like or dislike $SIVE:

The information discovery edge & forward bull narrative has been priced in:

Where Sivers makes a genuinely necessary component, InP external lasers that silicon can't replace, w/ four legit AI design-ins:

1. Ayar light source

2. $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) reference design

3. $POET Tech(POET.US) Optical Interposer ELS

4. $Jabil(JBL.US) 1.6T LRO pluggable module

That is the true, defensible bull case + it's not a mirage.

Further highlighted by:

- JP Morgan disclosed a ~5% stake

- index inclusions have happened

- multiple analysts now publish

But now:

You're essentially betting on Sivers' conversion.

I.e. will the design-ins turn into qualified volume revenue, and when?

The same story has repeated itself with hundreds of growth names over the years - $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) and early $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) etc.

Sivers aren't an early stage start-up, and management have acknowledged huge, growing interest in the company now.

So the pressure should be on them to deliver volume ramps in accordance with widely porported timelines of 2027-2028.

Another collaboration announcement like $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) wouldn't signal that, but it could definitely lead to another re-rate higher given their tiny MC.

But ideally, at some point soon, you do wanna see some sort of POs etc that confirms their $799M "opportunity" pipeline.

No idea when that happens given all the conflicting info this week on CPO timelines (SemiAnalysis, MS etc).

Imo, it's turned into a waiting game for Ayar / $Jabil(JBL.US) / $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) - which then go to ship to end customers like $AMD(AMD.US) / $Microsoft(MSFT.US) / $Amazon(AMZN.US).

And what % of the TAM Sivers can secure given they all multi-source laser supply from other places like $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) or $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) or $Lumentum(LITE.US) - who are known to have laser shortages.

Will continue to hold my position - don't see any point in liquidating large % gains rn.

Helping you understand why names like $Micron Tech(MU.US), $SIVE, and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) are down sharply today:

Paradis Macro Report [June 9]:

-> Iran war, yields/rates, and upcoming macro catalysts.

Iran shot down U.S. Apache helicopter today while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz.

A confirmed US strike on Iran would:

Spike oil = Hit risk appetite = Worsen equity weakness.

Today, we already saw some violent factor rotation:

Momentum/growth -> Value/defensive

Highlighted by:

- $QQQ: -4.2% intraday

- $SPY: -2.7% intraday

- $DJI: flat

So, a very fearful / risk-off market right now, as seen by high growth names like $IREN(IREN.US), $AXT(AXTI.US) and $Lumentum(LITE.US) being down >10% today.

Yields have also jumped after the June 5 payrolls beat (US 10Y: 4.54%). Meaning that Fed futures are now pricing in a rate hike by end of yr.

Basically:

Higher real yields = valuation compression for long-duration growth/AI names.

(Long-duration because the value in AI equities sit in cash-flows years out)

Ultimately, all this favours value/financials over AI growth names, which are all unwinding simultaneously right now.

But directionally, AI supercycle names will all continue higher in the long-run, driven by huge hyperscaler capex.

In terms of upcoming macro catalysts:

1. US May CPI [Jun 10]:

A hot print (>4.2% headline) hardens the "Fed can't cut / may hike" narrative.

= yields up, $ up, more pressure on AI/growth multiples.

A soft core surprise would be the relief valve for chips.

= relief rally in AI names.

2. $Oracle(ORCL.US) Earnings [Jun 10]:

Strong RPO/capex execution = bullish for the entire AI supply chain (HBM, optical, packaging, networking).

3. FOMC [Jun 16-17]:

The statement language (does it drop the easing bias / call labour "solid" vs "moderating") and the dots will reset the Y/E hike vs cut debate.

A hawkish hold / hike-signaling dots = pressure on AI supercycle names.

Any dovish surprise = relief for AI supercycle names.

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For inexperienced investors, I have advised countless times to avoid risky instruments such as options/leverage. Right now, with the current macro backdrop, stick to normal shares.

Personally, I have slowed down most dip-buying to let this macro uncertainty wash through.

Fun times with $SIVE:

New $8.2M order from All Space for Sivers' BFICs.

Pretty huge order for 2027, since total Q1 2026 rev was just $6.7M.

And embeds $SIVE in the US defence ecosystem via $York Space(YSS.US) pending acquisition of All Space.

Which will lead to more follow-on orders, likely of bigger size & scope.

However:

Personally, I don't see SATCOM as a long term growth driver for Sivers since SpaceX / $Rocket Lab(RKLB.US) eat up TAM through vertical integration.

With Sivers collecting potential orders in the long tail of other Space related companies.

Just shows that CPO ramp is their highest optionality growth lever for 2027+ imo.

But good to see a potential financial inflection point coming next year, just via defence/Satcom POs alone.

Nice cataylst regardless.

Stock Ratings [June 7th]:

On current AI sector crash. Explanations below.

Strong Buy:

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

$Micron Tech(MU.US)

$Sandisk(SNDK.US)

SK Hynix

Buy:

$Amazon(AMZN.US)

$Aehr Test(AEHR.US)

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)

$Ciena(CIEN.US)

$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US)

$Credo Tech(CRDO.US)

$Dell Tech(DELL.US)

$Fabrinet(FN.US)

$Formfactor(FORM.US)

$Corning(GLW.US)

$Jabil(JBL.US)

$Lumentum(LITE.US)

$MongoDB(MDB.US)

$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

$Nebius(NBIS.US)

$ServiceNow(NOW.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

$Reddit(RDDT.US)

$Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)

$SIVE

Hold:

$Arm(ARM.US)

$ASML(ASML.US)

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

$AXT(AXTI.US)

$Bloom Energy(BE.US)

$Meta Platforms(META.US)

$Macom Tech(MTSI.US)

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

$SoFi Tech(SOFI.US)

Avoid:

$Cerebras(CBRS.US)

$Coreweave(CRWV.US)

$ETH

$Hims & Hers Health(HIMS.US)

$IBIT / $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)

$IREN(IREN.US)

$Mercadolibre(MELI.US)

$Snap(SNAP.US)

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) (SpaceX) IPO

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Thoughts:

Strong Buy:

GOOGL - $85B raise is dilutive but they actually have ROI on their capex. Tbh, they'll probably always be a Strong Buy for me. Just the cleanest AI ROI among all the megacaps.

MU / SNDK / SK Hynix - If you're not bullish on memory, then idk for you.

Buy:

AMZN - Mainly for AWS reacceleration + Trainium. But some tension comparing AWS growth (+17%) vs Azure (+31%). Feel like custom silicon + distribution combo is durable even if growth rate lags a bit.

AEHR - H2 ramp in WLBI/PLBI systems coming, anchored by "significant" follow-on Sonoma order from lead hyperscale customer. Just need to wait a bit esp. for rev to inflect. But AI ASIC burb in is mandatory as device power goes up.

AAOI - Q3 capacity ramp (via facility expansion in Texas) toward 650k+ 800G/1.6T units/mth. Capacity coming online is the catalyst imo along w/ already known laser bottleneck + Made in US premiums.

CIEN - Just a high quality biz that got pounded last week (-22%). Beat + raise earnings, but stock dropping this much is an overreaction. CEO even said demand is "structural, multi year and AI-driven" shown by AI-driven DCI being their fastest growing part of the order book as new long-haul routes get built for latency and bandwidth.

COHR - upcoming CPO ramp (Nvidia spectrum-x) will speed things up, these prices will look cheap when we look back imo.

CRDO - Personally bought a ton last week post-earnings drop. Like Ciena, v. high quality compounding hold through the whole AI supercycle. Crazy high margins. Obviously compete w/ Marvell/Broadcom on SerDes, but also need to factor in the 1.6T switch replacement cycle into late 2026.

DELL - Trump effect. I've learnt my lesson and will listen to him next time.

FN - v. low drama way to ride transceiver demand + iPronics sipho line for cpo. New datacom wins also extending into next FY, although some Nvidia conc. risks. Put them in Buy just to be generous as was unsure tbh.

FORM - Important for HBM, adv packaging and CPO for higher yields. Foundry test intensity only set to increase w/ production.

GLW - Lead glass core substrates which are an advanced packaging bottleneck. LTP w/ Nvidia to expand US optical manufacturing for AI infra too.

JBL - Stock has done nothing for a month, but earnings coming up could be a nice catalyst for a push higher from their DC infra segment growing + outpacing drag from legacy mobility/ev exposure / margin mix.

LITE - CPO ramp + Nvidia qualification like Coherent.

MDB - AI is not replacing them. Imo they win vs. bolt on vector stores since their architecture is so simple.

MRVL - going to $1T according to Jensen. Underlying business is solid though esp. w/ Celestial acquisition for photonics. SPY inclusion last week too is a big positive.

MSFT - Current valuations are a joke tbh, markets probs punishing some margin compression. Rev +18%, Azure +40%, AI run rate +123%. So, v. clear enterprise monetisation path. Will be buying next week in retirement account.

NBIS - Best neocloud by far. They're a $100B biz vs. ~$57B currently. Jensen: "Nebius will take care of you."

NOW - AI is not replacing them. No enterprise CEO/CTO is dumb enough to offboard them at this point.

NVDA - Same as Microsoft. Been buying this whole time, but am now even more confused at current cheap valuations.

RDDT - AI is not replacing them. Cash printer. ARPUs improving also in legacy segments like international.

RKLB - #2 in commercial launch after SpaceX + their IPO should re-rate the entire space comp set where RKLB is the main liquid proxy. Unbelievable earnings also, just executing so well rn.

SIVE - everyone on X knows at this point?

Hold:

ARM - current valuation prices in flawless execution imo. But their IP is growing in DC CPUs e.g. Nvidia grace, AWS Graviton etc.

ASML - Elon said yesterday: "ASML should be treasured and supported. It is arguably the greatest company in Europe." - I agree. Also Terafab fireside chat next week High-NA EUV is the next leg, locking in the roadmap through the decade. Could also be a "Buy" for more risk averse people.

AVGO - CEO didn't raise >$100B FY27 target + flagged that Google will multi-source. Current AI mix is also diluting margins slightly. Just needed a pullback before the thesis starts working again.

AXTI - InP substrate bottleneck, crucial for AI buildout rn. Could also buy rn, just a slow dca since they've run up a ton already + raise completed ($632M) to 2x InP capacity.

BE - SOFC winner imo (Ceres 2nd). Don't think it's a buy just yet due to some valuation vs. profitability gaps.

META - hold based on capital allocation mainly. Market seems wary of the ROI on their AI capex hence the continuous dips. Also potential raise to fund capex like Google too - once that digests, I'll personally look to buy.

MTSI - Big fan of their investment into $IQE since it de-risks operations a lot, but just think COHR/LITE are better options for 800G/1.6T transition.

PLTR - Relatively poor Risk:Reward at current multiples.

SOFI - rate sensitivity. Loan book + credit performance carry macro risk which caps conviction rn. Some positives though w/ young + growing member base. Would need to look at credit trends + Fed path in June FOMC to re-assess.

Avoid:

CBRS - avoid at current prices. Would want it to come down closer to ~$40B mc before I look to dca. Would love to hold since they own genuinely unique tech.

CRWV / IREN - Financing for both is a mess...debt/dilution. Nebius are just a better multi yr neocloud.

HIMS - Forced out of higher margin GLP1s into lower margin braded GLPs from Novo/Lilly. Feel like their moat was to do w/ regulatory arbitrage on compounding. With that gone, it's a customer acquisition + churn biz buying branded drugs at lower margin.

IBIT / BTC - Macro setup is hostile. Higher rates for longer (10Y ~4.54%, 30Y >5%) raise opportunity cost. Pure liquidity/risk appetite instrument + both are tight rn.

ETH - same as bitcoin.

MELI - personally a little confused - either a hold/avoid. Seeing some margin compression via their credit book growing faster than revenues. Talks of margin recovery next year, at which point the stock could re-rate.

SNAP - Absolute worst social media app + CEO is a weirdo. Platform keeps losing share to Meta/Tiktok.

TSLA - Huge competition from other EV makers shown by production > deliveries volumes. Humanoids will be their next key growth driver, just a little while away.

SPCX (SpaceX) IPO: I never personally participate in IPOs + SpaceX specifically is way too overvalued for me. Will be going long eventually though. Rough ballpark would be ~$1.5T if it gets there post IPO.

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Just for very high level notes at current stock prices (NFA).

I'm personally staying long despite the current macro backdrop, mainly in AI supercycle names e.g. memory, semis etc.

But then you also have great companies at depressed prices, mainly in SaaS which I'm DCA'ing currently.

I don't hold positions in all of these names. This is just a subset that overlaps my "Close Tracking" list + X's favourite names.