牛顿师兄

What is the real reason for losing money in U.S. stocks? The real reason is that we don't understand Wall Street well enough and don't have enough knowledge about the actual situation of companies. For retail investors like us, it's quite difficult to obtain very detailed information about many companies, and much of the news we receive is deliberately released for us to see. For example, sudden after-hours positive news from companies like Google and Apple is hard for us to catch, but we can vaguely sense that they have other major positive developments. For instance, Apple has a product launch event, and this year Apple's returns are still negative by eight points, so it's relatively safe to hold...

Why did Meituan's earnings report bomb so severely, with such a significant drop in profits? We can refer to Pinduoduo's earnings call a few days ago, where they described the issue of profits. They mentioned that profits are unsustainable. Why are they unsustainable? Because the boss cannot be the richest person. Why can't the boss be the richest person? Because being the richest is not low-key enough. Additionally, Pinduoduo has always been criticized and disliked, so under such circumstances, many big shots cannot afford to stand out. A tall tree catches the wind. So, what does this have to do with Meituan? What has Meituan been criticized for? Monopoly...

NVIDIA suddenly experienced a significant drop in trading volume. Is the U.S. stock market doomed? Bad news has been pouring in over the past few days: 1. On August 15, Trump tweeted before the market opened, warning of high risk. 2. On August 18, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told the media that AI investments are overheated in the short term but promising in the long run. 3. On August 19, The New York Times reported that Meta's AI department is downsizing, with some executives leaving. On August 19, NVIDIA failed to resist a drop of over 3% in trading volume. So now, once the market enters a stalemate phase...

After the release of GPT5, the demand for data centers will double within five months. The resources and money invested by tech giants in AI will not decrease but will intensify. This is the biggest positive for AI semiconductor companies represented by NVIDIA and AMD. Companies in the related industry chain will attract capital inflows, such as the three data center operating companies invested by NVIDIA—CRWV, APLD, and NBIS—which will continue to see capital inflows. Nuclear power-related companies will also be hyped again. Many people have a lot of cash on hand for the seasonal pullback in August...

The disparity in this world lies in the fact that the gap between people is as vast as the Pacific Ocean! For example, during the recent market turbulence, PLTR's growth has been exceptionally strong. Generally, a company that can maintain an annualized revenue growth of over 40% is considered outstanding. Such companies in the tech sector eventually become giants, and PLTR has managed to grow its revenue by more than 80% annually. Yet, despite being such an impressive company, there are still naive investors who want to short it, claiming it's a bubble. The only thing with bubbles is beer. Remember, the U.S. stock market is a mature market...

The market has reached a state where no negative news has any effect, which is the complete frenzy after institutions' FOMO. We can see that NVIDIA H20 has actually been summoned for talks, but during the night session, the stock price rebounded after being suppressed. The most important thing is yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Although his speech was hawkish, the entire market still ignored it. In the past, adjustments would have been made under such circumstances, which indicates one thing: institutions have completely missed out, so they are now frantically buying...

Good news in the market: 1. The tariff agreement signed between Europe and the US exempts semiconductor equipment from tariffs, which may foreshadow the 232 semiconductor tariffs, meaning the impact of the 232 semiconductor tariffs could be eliminated. 2. NVIDIA has placed a new order with TSMC for 200,000 H20 chips, as the demand for AI chips in the Chinese market continues to grow. AI spending is expected to reach $100 billion by 2025 and will continue to increase. 3. AMD's MI350 has increased in price by $10,000...

Actually, I've always thought that people who buy Tesla are those with exceptionally stable emotions. Because during the period of holding Tesla, if they can't maintain emotional stability and achieve a qualitative leap in their emotions, it will definitely greatly affect their lives. So, what rises with Tesla isn't the stock price, but one's state of mind! This is the greatest gain Tesla brings to everyone! This round of the U.S. stock market rally was triggered by AI semiconductor sector, so NVIDIA has surged to a market cap of 4 trillion, and many semiconductor companies have also seen significant gains, along with many industries related to AI...

After Tesla's earnings report, the stock price plummeted. What does this imply for our investment plan? I know many people like Tesla because of Elon Musk's personal charm. In fact, I used to like him a lot too and made a lot of money through Tesla's options. However, some of my logic and perspectives have changed this year. The reason I've been trading Apple's options is because of their high certainty. The biggest change for me this year is seeking certainty—everything else pales in comparison or is just fleeting. Only with certainty can you dare to go all-in, and only by going all-in can you make money...

This week, the implied volatility of SPX hit bottom, touching only 75 points. This level of volatility is extremely low, especially during the current earnings season, which is quite rare. Notably, major tech stocks like TSLA, GOOG, and IBM are set to report their earnings this week. However, according to the reports from global companies like MMM and PEP that have already disclosed their earnings, the continued decline in the US dollar index has led to a significant outperformance of revenue denominated in US dollars due to the depreciation of the currency. This exchange rate effect will be reflected in the performance of companies with global operations...

There is a very important underlying logic to this round of macro bull market, which is the revaluation of global major asset classes after U.S. Treasury bonds hit new highs. With the improvement in U.S.-China relations, the easing of geopolitical risks, better U.S. inflation expectations, and the continued explosion of the AI technology revolution, the grand narrative of U.S. stocks is not overheating but just right to get institutions to start entering the market. The rebound in U.S. stocks began in early April with Trump's tariff delay, when retail investors worldwide united to buy U.S. stocks, pushing the index up hard, and many highly recognizable small-cap tech stocks could be said to be blooming...

The recent market theme has been the improvement in Sino-US relations. The resumption of sales of high-end AI chips from the US to China has brought significant incremental growth, directly boosting the valuation of the entire semiconductor sector. Companies like NVIDIA and AMD are direct beneficiaries, with greatly improved expectations. The biggest impact of this development is the increasing positive macro-level expectations. For example, many were worried about the US debt crisis, but now no one mentions it. However, it's important to note that China is also a major holder of US debt. The lifting of chip sales restrictions suggests potential for more cooperation in other areas...

The current market is a tale of two sides. On the east side, tech companies like Xiaomi are pushing relentlessly higher, while the three food delivery companies have fought tooth and nail, finally hitting rock bottom and starting to rebound. On the west side, NVIDIA stands out as the sole star, single-handedly leading the semiconductor sector upward, completely crushing the short sellers. Under these circumstances, the market has strong upward momentum because every time the market consolidates, major positive news emerges. As a result, whether it's retail investors or institutional CTA funds, no one can stop—though, of course, the accounts are their own...

Last night, the entire market's funds flowed into the semiconductor sector, causing some previously rising popular tech stocks to plummet, with nuclear power and quantum computing being the hardest-hit areas. The biggest shock factor for U.S. stocks this week is Trump's tariff policy, which has caused many companies to fluctuate wildly. Therefore, if you want to build a position, you must wait patiently. Otherwise, if you enter at the opening and the market immediately plummets, it's easy to break your defenses. Currently, large funds are engaged in a tug-of-war around Nvidia, especially at the 160 level. Once it stabilizes at 160 without falling, the shorts will quickly become fuel, leading to a short squeeze...

The biggest news in the market today is that the U.S. may authorize chip design companies to continue providing technology to China. The positive aspect of this development lies in the fact that China and the U.S. may have engaged in in-depth communication and negotiations. Considering the upcoming 90-day tariff extension deadline for Trump, this move could pave the way for future tariff negotiations. We know that Europe has already accepted a 10% general goods tariff plan, and yesterday Vietnam also accepted a 20% export tariff while maintaining zero tariffs on U.S. goods. As a result, U.S. stocks were instantly ignited...

Last night, TSLA dropped -7% at the opening and closed at -5% at the end. Although there were fluctuations in between, the closing price did not crash, which can be considered a positive sign. It is also possible that the capital market had already anticipated TSLA's sales data in advance. Although Musk and Trump argued fiercely, they also had intense arguments last time, so institutions might be immune to it now. Otherwise, if institutions were to sell off, the closing price wouldn't have risen slightly by 2% compared to the opening, but would have fallen into a crash. Therefore, this can be seen as a positive signal. In the past two days, TSLA has been quite different—it doesn't follow the decline of NVDA...

One counterintuitive aspect of the stock market is that high prices can keep rising until they attract most of the people who were originally afraid to buy, and then suddenly collapse. The latest example is CRCL, where many people got stuck around 250 because when it surged to 300 that day, many jumped in after seeing a pullback, only to face a sharp drop. The most striking example for me was MSTR's rally last year, which peaked at 540, then surged 13% in a day before plummeting 20%—the craziest case of naive investors being wiped out I've ever seen...

I already warned about the risks of CRCL yesterday, and then it dropped at the open. At first, I thought the decline might not hold and tried to buy the dip, but when the rebound showed no strength, I quickly exited. So, once the market trend confirms a downward move, you must act decisively. There’s always time to exit during the night or pre-market sessions. That’s why when I warn about risks, I hope everyone takes it seriously. The logic is simple: companies like this only rise when the broader market might correct. Once the market stops correcting, they can easily fizzle out, especially after such a sharp short-term rally...

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is like a game. Before attacking, they announce it first—'I'm going to hit you'—and then missiles fly over like rockets in a live stream. Only people from both sides cheer, while others just watch the show and occasionally applaud. The result is that whether it's Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, or U.S. stocks, they all perform very well. Yesterday, besides stablecoin concept stocks like CRCL, Tesla was the most eye-catching. Last Friday, I wrote in the community about buying the dip at 324, and after it dropped, I bought more, resulting in a very good return on Monday...

Trump's attack on Iran on Saturday had the minimal impact on U.S. stocks, so the night session is relatively calm. Yesterday's video also explained that the market is moving basically as predicted in the video. Under the current circumstances, the only thing to watch out for is that semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA and TSMC are showing signs of a pullback, which requires caution. The Trump administration's cancellation of the technology licensing exemption for China's chip manufacturing and the tightening of technology export bans mean there will be some turbulence in the semiconductor sector...

After the Stablecoin Act was passed, there was no sell news in stablecoin trading, indicating that the speculation has just begun. The upcoming frenzy will be jaw-dropping. As I mentioned before, any sector resonating across the US stock market, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks will not end quickly. However, everyone should know that even if it's a good company, buying at a bad price can be painful, so it's necessary to have a rough judgment of the market before the opening. Otherwise, you might face the awkward situation of chasing high on CRCL the day before and getting stuck, and then missing out on a big rise yesterday because you didn't dare to chase...

Timing is crucial in the current U.S. stock market due to the frequent occurrence of unexpected events. The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a flood of both good and bad news, making it difficult to discern the truth. Additionally, Trump keeps tweeting and getting involved, further complicating the situation. As a result, the market has been highly volatile. Especially now, some hot stocks may suddenly rise at the opening, only to be sold off later, setting traps for investors. In such a scenario: First, avoid blindly chasing highs. The first hour after the opening is typically when institutional and quantitative traders compete. Unless the broader market is collectively strong, individual stocks are prone to rally and then pull back...

The overall core of the U.S. stock market still revolves around semiconductors. Due to the recent repeated conflicts between Israel and Iran, the market has experienced significant shocks. However, the market generally views this as a 'buy the dip' opportunity. Therefore, any signs of easing tensions will likely drive the market upward. Of course, we can see that the entire market has entered a delicate phase, with index trends flattening and the S&P 500 oscillating around the 6000-point mark. This could also be due to large funds avoiding risks ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate meeting...

Has the turning point of this week's market arrived? How will the market perform under the dual risks of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran? Current technical indicators of the market: 1. The daily technicals have weakened, with short-term defense as the priority. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and a death cross has appeared. If the closing price this week falls below the 20-day moving average, hedging strategies should be implemented immediately, with risk management as the top priority. 2. The weekly KD has broken through 100, and consolidation at high levels is the most ideal scenario based on historical experience of the daily J value...