$XD INC(02400.HK) issued its 2025 earnings guidance.
H2 performance was mixed.
1) Revenue miss: full-year revenue not less than RMB 5.7bn (+14% YoY), implying H2 revenue slightly over RMB 2.6bn, down 5% YoY.
Street expectations were aggressive, looking for H2 revenue of RMB 3.4bn.
The gap likely stems from expectations for '《伊瑟重启日》' (Intl launch in Jun last year, China launch in Sep), with the market extrapolating strong showings from '《出发吧麦芬》' and '《火炬无限》' into higher estimates for '《伊瑟》'.
In reality, while '《伊瑟》' started well, it lacked staying power, likely due to competition from similar titles.
Another factor was the intl launch of '《心动小镇》', which was pushed to Jan this year.
Given partially public revenue data, not all but most of the impact had been priced during the revenue downtrend.
2) Net profit beat: full-year NPAT not less than RMB 1.58bn, ahead of the Street’s RMB 1.4–1.5bn, and, given the revenue picture, implying a materially higher margin than expected.
Margins surprised positively.
Drivers include a higher mix of self-developed titles, which lifts GPM vs. licensed exclusives, and stronger, higher-efficiency ad monetization at TapTap.
Additional tailwinds likely came from tighter external UA spend and improved efficiency in product development and company operations.
3) Valuation sits around 18x P/E on FY26 (Est.), slightly above HK peers but reasonable given TapTap monetization growth prospects.
Key 2025 watchpoints include deeper TapTap commercialization (ADN marketing & game creation Agent), the intl rollout of '《心动小镇》', and margin uplift from royalty savings after acquiring the '《火炬》' IP (Dec last year).
