CTBYDEI@EC2611A

The boat for long term investing of S-REITs have came back to port again. Buying at this level has little downside and would offer a larger margin of safety when mean reversion occurs.

BYD 4Q25 First Take: Overall, Q4 results still missed expectations. Revenue beat, but the outperformance came mainly from the non-core BYD Electronics unit. As for the core auto biz:

① Q4 auto revenue was RMB 181.5bn, in line with the Street. However, ASPs continued to decline.

② Auto GPM and net profit per vehicle missed. The Street had expected at least a 200bps QoQ rebound in auto GPM to 22.5% on a cooler price war, Q4 scale benefits, and a stronger overseas mix. Net profit per vehicle was expected to recover to RMB 7.1k, still well below the ~RMB 9.0k run-rate in 2024.

However, auto GPM and net profit per vehicle still fell short, with net profit per vehicle at only RMB 6.7k. Insufficient unit-cost declines and a sharp QoQ jump in selling expenses constrained margin expansion. Domestic auto sales remained under heavy pressure in Q4. $BYD(002594.SZ) $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)

S-Reit can drop further if the Iran war does not settle. Long War, higher oil prices, higher inflation, RATE HIKE!!! Real Estate will suffer!

S reits are being punished for nothing. It is face equity like volatility and drawdown even though real estate is stable. Interest rate did not even move. I would say buy the dip!

The longer Trump or Iran delays any resolution, the longer the impact of the war will creep through the economy. Even with a ceasefire, it may be too late. 10 days is too long...

Another delay tactic or real peace talks? I believe the key is with the bond market. A big chunk of US debt is due this year and that needs to be refinanced. And that debt which was attained at record low rates will have to be priced at current rates. And those rates are going up and forcing the president’s hands. Similar to how he had to TACO last year April for similar reasons (obviously not stated on mainstream media), seems like the same this time. A middle ground needs to be reached ASAP and that is being reflected in the decisions made. If a peace accord is agreed, that will be the narrative the media will say lead to a market rally. However, when you look at technicals, there are complete 5 waves patterns all round and a bounce is already imminent! Stay safe!

Bond yields have increased due to rising inflation expectations, among other factors. Oil prices may remain elevated. Interest rates may stay higher for longer with fewer rate cuts. IMO can wait a while before buying S-REITs .

Energy, especially oil and gas, is still the strongest sector for the moment as long as the Iran war isn’t resolved.

Recently watching $BYD ELECTRONIC(00285.HK) and $LK TECH(00558.HK) this trend, intraday fluctuations, the "death cross" made me want to sell, but then it rose a tiny bit.

On the other hand, $FIT HON TENG(06088.HK) and $ZHEJIANG SHIBAO(01057.HK), these two main themes of AI and smart driving have been surging recently. Looking back, I didn’t dare to go heavy, and that FOMO feeling, you know...

$AUX ELECTRIC(02580.HK)) is a classic short-term trap—spiked and then fell. Cutting losses early actually feels better now.