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XPeng 2Q26 First Take: Overall, results were mediocre. More importantly, next-quarter guidance clearly missed Street expectations.

The Street expected GX, a higher-priced model, to lift the mix and drive a QoQ recovery in auto GPM. In reality, auto GPM was only flat QoQ. The overall GPM beat was driven by a sharp QoQ jump in services and other revenue, likely from high-margin tech R&D service revenue recognized upon milestone completion.

SG&A jumped, with higher ad spend for new models and dealer commissions that scale with volume. As a result, net profit from car sales still missed expectations.

The next-quarter guidance is the most critical datapoint. Here, XPeng severely missed Street expectations.

Q3 delivery guidance is only 115k–121k units vs. the Street at 147k. With 38k units already delivered in Jul, the guidance implies avg. monthly sales of just 38.5k–41.5k in Aug/Sep.

Even with MONA L03 entering a full delivery season and an order book exceeding 50k, this guidance clearly points to a severe capacity bottleneck that cannot be resolved in the near term. The higher-priced GX is tracking above expectations with monthly sales of ~7k and an order backlog of ~30k, but the ramp limits its contribution to total Q3 deliveries.

Revenue guidance implies an ASP of only RMB 168k, below the Street's RMB 173k. This reflects GX's still-low share in the delivery mix and the higher share of lower-priced MONA models. $XPeng(XPEV.US) $XPENG-W(09868.HK)