MBMTUAN@EP2704A

Aug 27 | Dolphin Research watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) U.S. Jul PCE +3.7% YoY; core PCE +3.3% YoY. Both were in line with expectations.

Real personal consumption expenditures were nearly flat MoM after inflation, signaling a clear cooldown from earlier strength. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.

With sticky inflation and signs of softer consumption, policy choices have become tougher for the Fed. After the print, UST yields ticked higher while U.S. equities traded choppy under pressure.

The market now looks to commentary out of Jackson Hole from Fed officials. Guidance there could shape the path of rates ahead...

0811 Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Douyin Life Services made Doubao an exclusive hospitality & travel transaction channel effective 00:00 on Aug 10. Hotel orders incur an 11.4% software service fee plus a 0.6% payment processing fee, for a 12% all-in take rate. Previously, Doubao traffic was categorized under Douyin’s organic channel with an 8% blended rate.

Doubao stated there are no paid hotel ads or paid ranking mechanisms, and merchants cannot pay to influence recommendation order.

The channel leverages AI search to drive incremental traffic. We will monitor whether the added order volume offsets merchants’ higher channel costs...

0728 | Dolphin Focus: Macro/Sector. 1) According to foreign media, Shanghai state-owned firms have begun small-batch production of domestically built immersion DUV lithography systems, with five units planned for this year. The first batch is slated for delivery to SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and CXMT.

Most components have been localized, but certain critical parts still rely on overseas suppliers. After delivery, fabs will require extended line qualification, making large-scale substitution of ASML tools unlikely in the near term.

The report catalyzed sentiment across the semiconductor equipment space, but has not been officially confirmed by the companies. Follow-up on delivery and yield qualification progress remains key...