CI-CRBH@EC2606A

JPMorgan Releases Research Report Analyzing Carlsberg China's 2025 and 2026 Financial Forecasts and Business Strategies

Huayu Beer Benefits from Non-Direct Sales Channel Growth, CSQiC Downgrades Revenue Forecast

Morningstar Cuts Fair Value and Profit Projections for CR Beer

Huajues Beer's Northeast Factories Assets Auction Failures

Harbin Brewery Closes Changchun Factory

Huayu Beer Signs Strategic Cooperation Agreement with Huaxiang Lifestyle for Baijiu Sales

Nomura Downgrades Suntory Beverage & Food China's EPS Forecast but Maintains Buy Rating

CLSA Raises Target Price and Profit Forecast for CR Beer

Nomura Raises Target Price for CR Beer to HKD 44.60

CHINA RES BEER released FY2025 Q1 earnings on August 19 (BJT), actual revenue HKD 12.82 B, actual EPS HKD 0.9531

Morgan Stanley Releases Report on CR Beer's Interim Results

CRC Beer Reports 0.8% YOY Revenue Growth and 20.8% YOY Profit Growth in H1 2025

CHINA RES BEER released FY2025 Semi-Annual Earnings on August 19 Pre-Market (BJT), actual revenue HKD 25.92 B (forecast HKD 26.32 B), actual EPS HKD 1.932 (forecast HKD 1.665)

CHINA RES BEER released FY2025 Q2 earnings on August 19 Pre-Market (BJT), actual revenue HKD 13.1 B, actual EPS HKD 0.9765

CHINA RES BEER to release FY2025 Semi-Annual earnings on August 19, 2025 (BJT), forecast revenue HKD 26.71 B, EPS HKD 1.665

Cuhai Beer Chairman Hou Xiaohai Announces Resignation

Huachiew Beer's ESG Rating Dropped to BBB

Sinobrew Acquires Jinsha Wine

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Beer Industry Sales Forecast

DAISHOMICROLINE

PUTIAN COMM

MOBI DEV

NANFANG COMM

ADD NEW ENERGY

ELIFE HLDGS

SIWI SCI & TECH

DTXS SILK ROAD

SANDMARTIN INTL

HAO BAI INTL

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HEINY

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Budweiser and Heineken are experiencing contrasting fortunes in China in 2025 due to changing drinking habits amid an economic downturn. Budweiser reported its largest profit decline since 2020, with CEO Yanjun Chen acknowledging underperformance. In contrast, Heineken's CEO Dolf van den Brink hailed China as a key profit contributor. The shift towards at-home consumption and online orders has impacted traditional venues, with Budweiser focusing on activating brands in emerging channels. Heineken's success is attributed to its partnership with China Resources Beer, which has adapted better to the changing market dynamics.

南华早报

Anheuser-Busch InBev NV

CHINA RES BEER

Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF

ChinaAMC CSI Food & Beverage Sub-Industry ETF

Penghua CSI Alcoholic Drink ETF

BUD APAC

China Merchants CSI Liquor Index Fund-A

Heineken

China Merchants Guozheng Food and Beverage ETF

Budweiser and Heineken face polar opposite fates in China as punters stay home

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Hang Seng Indexes Company announced that in the quarterly review results up to December 31, 2025, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will add BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W, while removing CHINA RES BEER and Mengniu Dairy. The total number of constituent stocks will remain at 50, and all changes will be implemented after the market closes on March 6, 2026, and will take effect on March 9, 2026

AASTOCKS

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index

HSCEI ETF

HORIZONROBOT-W

MENGNIU DAIRY

BEKE-W

Mengniu Dairy

In the "Quarterly Review," the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index includes BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W while excluding CHINA RES BEER and Mengniu Dairy

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德国商业银行

European stocks started off weak as the market digested corporate earnings, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.2%. Heineken's stock price rose 4.9%, and Siemens Energy's stock price increased by 5.4%. Deutsche Bank's stock price fell by 4.3%, and Lufthansa's stock price dropped by 3.6%. Dassault Systèmes' stock price plummeted by 21%. U.S. stock futures rose slightly, while Asia-Pacific stock markets showed mixed performance

Deutsche Bank AG

ZHUJIANG BREWERY

European stocks opened slightly lower, with the French and German markets down 0.4% as the market digests corporate quarterly results

China Resources Beer is navigating a transformative beverage market in China, projected to reach USD 529.9 billion by 2035. Despite an 18.5% revenue drop in H1 25, the company remains optimistic with a 13% rise in share price over the past year and a strong analyst consensus of 'Buy' ratings. Analysts predict a dividend yield increase to 5.2% and a target price suggesting a 33.8% upside. However, challenges like declining packaged water demand and a competitive premium beer market pose risks. The company's future hinges on innovation and channel expansion to offset core business weaknesses.

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China Resources Beer: Analysts Eye Strong Upside

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The world's third-largest brewer Carlsberg saw its organic operating profit grow by 5% to DKK 13.99 billion last year, exceeding market expectations, benefiting from cost reductions and the acquisition of Britvic, which brought in better-than-expected earnings. It is expected that this year's organic operating profit will grow by 2% to 6% year-on-year. Last year, beer sales increased by 17.7%, while organic beer sales declined by 2%. Excluding San Miguel beer, organic beer sales in Western Europe increased by 1.3%, while the Asian market declined by 2.4%, and the markets in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and India fell by 0.6%

SAN MIGUEL HK

China Universal CSI Consumer Staples ETF

Britvic plc

Huaan CSI SWS Food and Beverage ETF

HuiQuan Beer

Carlsberg

"Performance" Carlsberg's natural operating profit grew by 5% last year, exceeding expectations

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CITIC Securities International's research report has lowered the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 31 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating. Despite pressure on the ready-to-drink channel, sales growth in non-ready-to-drink channels has shown resilience in overall sales. Heineken's growth rate is about 20%, and low-end products have also seen slight positive growth. It is expected that net profit will achieve high single-digit to double-digit growth by 2025, with the dividend payout ratio expected to increase to 70%. At the same time, the liquor business may incur impairment losses, which will have short-term impacts but will be beneficial for valuation improvement in the long term. Revenue forecasts for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026 have been slightly adjusted downwards by about 2%

CMSC

In the report "Big Banks," CMSC lowered the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 31 yuan and maintained a "Buy" rating

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Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited has signed multiple framework agreements effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026. These agreements include a Comprehensive Services Framework Agreement with Tsingtao Brewery Group, an Entrusted Production and Product Purchase Agreement with Qingdao Beverage, a Trademark License Agreement with Youjia Health and others, and a Supply Chain Services Framework Agreement with Zhilian Shunda. The agreements involve connected transactions and comply with the Listing Rules and Shanghai Stock Exchange regulations.

Reuters

Tsingtao Brewery

TSINGTAO BREW

Tsingtao Brewery Signs New Framework Agreements for 2026

On January 12th, China Resources Beer (0291.HK) once again exhibited a one-sided downward trend, with the consumer sector's "heat cooling," leading to outflows of main funds and a market primarily characterized by low-level pulses. From the market perspective, there are no core driving events in the industry, and institutions have lower expectations for consumer assets compared to the same period last year, with terminal demand recovery lagging behind, causing the stock price to decline throughout the day to the critical support area of 26.14 yuan. The MACD daily line shows a death cross, with indicators synchronously weakening, and the pressure on the lower Bollinger Band increasing, exacerbating technical weakness signals. Currently, the industry is in a "quiet period," with no new orders or incremental business disclosures. The peak season for beer consumption has ended, and the winter off-season, combined with delayed mainline switching, is dragging down market confidence. In this context, a decline in leading stocks can easily trigger overall fluctuations in the consumer sector. If there are sudden adjustments in consumption tax, holiday promotions, or positive news stimuli, the market may experience divergent rebounds; otherwise, the short-term structure will be difficult to improve under pressure. Right-side traders should closely monitor intraday volume, policy signals, and market anomalies. The old logic of consumption has become ineffective, and a recovery in volume or sudden events will be the turning point for this round of market trends. If the market quickly rushes to buy, the sustainability of the rebound needs to be tracked for volume-price coordination. It is recommended to guard against chain risks triggered by declines and to respond flexibly to weak cyclical fluctuations

Technical Forecast

Early Morning Trend | CHINA RES BEER approaches the lower band, is the short-term downside risk heating up under weak consumption recovery?

China Resources Beer (291.HK) has recently faced significant downward pressure, with the daily MACD continuously showing a death cross and weak short-term technical performance. Although there were attempts to rebound during certain periods, the momentum was insufficient, and the stock price has overall remained in a weak oscillation at a phase low, with low trading volume and continued capital outflow. The consumer sector is affected by macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to intensified internal rotation within the sector. As a leading company, China Resources Beer has not yet shown strong counterattack signals. On the industry level, consumer scenarios are gradually recovering post-pandemic, but the recovery speed is limited, coupled with a lack of new growth stimuli in the market, resulting in a dominant wait-and-see sentiment among investors. Technically, the previous low support is weak, and the MACD continues to amplify the green bars. If an effective stabilization pattern cannot be formed in the near term, the stock price may continue to seek a lower bottom. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to wait for catalysts such as better-than-expected performance or cost reductions. In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to maintain a light position and observe, strictly control positions, and pay attention to capital movements in the support area and marginal changes in industry prosperity. Only with a rebound in trading volume and a K-line breaking through the phase pressure level can we judge that the trend may improve; otherwise, we must be on guard for the risk of new lows at any time

Morning Trend | CHINA RES BEER's attempt to rebound from the bottom fails, can the consumer sector withstand the pressure?

Daiwa published a research report, reiterating its "Buy" rating on CHINA RES BEER, but lowering the target price from HKD 38 to HKD 36. Daiwa pointed out that CHINA RES BEER is catering to instant retail and developing new flavors to adapt to the changes in Chinese young consumers. Although the expansion of average selling prices and profit margins may slow down, Daiwa remains optimistic about its execution capabilities and strategic flexibility

Daiwa downgraded the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 36 yuan and reiterated the "Buy" rating

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According to statistics from the Zhitong Finance APP, as of October 31, the short selling ratios of JD Health-R, CHINA RES BEER-R, and SHK PPT-R were 100.00%, 97.44%, and 77.85%, respectively. The short selling amounts for Alibaba-SW, Tencent, and Meituan-W were RMB 3.449 billion, RMB 3.116 billion, and RMB 2.066 billion, respectively. In terms of deviation values, Mengjinyuan, Changjiang Life Technology, and Geely Automobile-R were 33.73%, 32.22%, and 30.81%, respectively

Zhitong

SHK PPT

Tencent

Tencent Holdings Limited

TENCENT

Alibaba

BABA-W

KraneShares 2x Long BABA Daily ETF

YieldMax BABA Option Income Strategy ETF

BABA 2x Long Daily ETF - GraniteShares

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Statistics | October 31

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According to the short selling statistics of Hong Kong stocks from Zhitong Finance APP, as of October 27, the short selling ratios of CHINA RES BEER-R, JD HEALTH-R, and JD Group-SWR were 100.00%, 100.00%, and 93.32%, respectively. In terms of short selling amounts, Xiaomi Group-W, Alibaba-SW, and Tencent Holdings were 2.156 billion yuan, 2.038 billion yuan, and 1.552 billion yuan, respectively. The stocks with the highest deviation values were JD Group-SWR, SenseTime-WR, and CHINA RES BEER-R, at 43.55%, 31.62%, and 31.60%, respectively

- The article reports on short-selling statistics for various stocks, highlighting that China Resources Beer and JD Health have the highest short-selling ratios at 100%.  
- Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent lead in short-selling amounts, with figures of 21.56 billion, 20.38 billion, and 15.52 billion respectively.  
- Additionally, JD Group shows the highest deviation value at 43.55%, indicating significant short-selling activity compared to its historical average.

JD HEALTH

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Statistics | October 27

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On October 23rd, the short selling statistics for Hong Kong stocks showed that the short selling ratios for CHINA RES BEER-R, Lenovo Group-R, and ANTA SPORTS-R were all 100%. In terms of short selling amounts, POP MART, Alibaba-SW, and Tencent Holdings were 1.723 billion, 1.688 billion, and 1.166 billion respectively. JD Group-SWR, SENSETIME-WR, and Kintor Pharmaceutical-B had the highest deviation values, at 51.60%, 50.22%, and 42.62% respectively

- The article reports on short-selling statistics for various companies, highlighting that China Resources Beer, Lenovo Group, and Anta Sports have a short-selling ratio of 100.00%.  
- The top three companies by short-selling amount are Pop Mart, Alibaba, and Tencent, with amounts of 1.723 billion, 1.688 billion, and 1.166 billion, respectively.  
- Additionally, JD Group, SenseTime, and Kintor Pharmaceutical show the highest deviation values, indicating significant short-selling activity compared to their historical averages.

POP MART

ANTA SPORTS

SENSETIME-W

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Statistics | October 23

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Huachuang Securities released a research report indicating that the liquor industry has entered a bottom accumulation period, and it is expected that seasonal catalysts will drive a rebound in valuations. It recommends paying attention to the strong-performing Moutai, Fenjiu, and the expected performance bottom confirmation of Gujing and King’s Luck. It suggests positioning WLY from a dividend yield perspective and focusing on deep reformers such as Yanghe and Zhenjiu Lidu. In terms of consumer goods, it recommends Angel Yeast, CHINA RES BEER, and Yili, while paying attention to growth opportunities in yellow wine and beverages

King’s Luck

Moutai

Huachuang Securities: Focus on the bottom catalyst of liquor and select industry trends for consumer goods

$CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) Overall, China Resources Beer's performance in 24H2 is in line with expectations under low forecasts. Although the story of premiumization driving ton price increases is still unfolding, during the industry's deep adjustment period, the accelerated clearance of low-end beer has inevitably led to a decline in overall sales for China Resources, resulting in continued negative growth in revenue. In terms of profit, after excluding fixed asset impairment and one-time employee compensation, government subsidies, and other special items caused by factory closures, EBITDA increased by 17.4% year-on-year, and EBITDA margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the improvement in product mix enhancing the company's profitability.In terms of sales volume, China Resources achieved a sales volume of 4.53 million tons in 24H2, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Although the decline in sales volume has narrowed compared to H1, it is still slightly below expectations due to unexpected rainfall during the summer peak season and the lack of significant improvement in on-premise consumption scenarios such as dining and nightlife, coupled with the accelerated clearance of low-end beer.In terms of ton price, the ton price in 24H2 reached 3,076 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year. This is significantly less than the single-digit increases seen in the previous two years, indicating that the pace of the company's premiumization is slowing down amid weakened consumer spending. However, due to generally low market expectations, the ton price slightly exceeded expectations (expected 3,119 yuan/ton).In terms of gross margin, the improvement in the product mix of the beer business and the high growth of premium liquor products (up 35% year-on-year) drove the company's gross margin to increase by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. From an annual perspective, the company's gross margin increased by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year to 42.6%, reaching a five-year high. The expense ratio remained stable compared to the same period last year.Looking at the guidance for 2025, China Resources has raised its sales target for 2025 to low single-digit growth (from flat), reflecting management's optimism about the recovery of the beer industry in 2025. Additionally, based on the disclosed data for January-February 2025, the company's revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, with profit growth significantly outpacing revenue growth.

CHINA RES BEER-R

CI-CRBH@EC2606A(24232.HK)

Budweiser and Heineken face polar opposite fates in China as punters stay home

In the "Quarterly Review," the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index includes BEKE-W and HORIZONROBOT-W while excluding CHINA RES BEER and Mengniu Dairy

European stocks opened slightly lower, with the French and German markets down 0.4% as the market digests corporate quarterly results

China Resources Beer: Analysts Eye Strong Upside

"Performance" Carlsberg's natural operating profit grew by 5% last year, exceeding expectations