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Guoyuan Securities (HK) has reaffirmed a Buy rating on China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (CRHKF), setting a price target of HK$31.00. The stock closed at HK$24.88, indicating a potential upside of 38.09% based on the analyst consensus average price target of HK$34.36. Additionally, DBS also maintains a Buy rating with a price target of HK$36.00.

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CHINA RES BEER

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Guoyuan Securities (HK) Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (CRHKF)

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China Resources Beverage's Profit Slips in 2025; Dividend Declared

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China Resources Beverage's Profit Slips in 2025; Dividend Declared

Nomura Adjusts China Resources Beer (Holdings)' Price Target to HK$44.10 from HK$44.60, Keeps at Buy

Nomura Adjusts China Resources Beer (Holdings)' Price Target to HK$44.10 from HK$44.60, Keeps at Buy

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Nomura has lowered the target price for CR BEVERAGE to 44.1 yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating. The report pointed out that CR BEVERAGE's revenue last year decreased by 2% year-on-year to 38 billion yuan, and profit fell by 29% to 3.4 billion yuan, mainly due to a decline in beer business prices and losses in the liquor business. Adjusted EBITDA was 9.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. Revenue from the beer business was 36.5 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 1.4 percentage points. The liquor business is expected to remain weak in 2025, with significant declines in both revenue and EBITDA

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Nomura lowers the target price for CR BEVERAGE to 44.1 yuan, rating it as "Buy"

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Asia Pacific Breweries Singapore (APBS) will reduce its brewing operations in Singapore, shifting production to Malaysia and Vietnam over the next two years. This transition will result in approximately 130 layoffs from its workforce of 536. APBS aims to support a more agile regional supply model while maintaining Singapore as the home of Tiger Beer. Heineken will enhance regional logistics and continue investing in Singapore, which will also lead AI initiatives for the company.

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APBS to scale down Singapore brewing, move production to Malaysia and Vietnam

Jefferies Adjusts China Resources Beer (Holdings)' Price Target to HK$37.70 From HK$35.70, Keeps at Buy

Jefferies Adjusts China Resources Beer (Holdings)' Price Target to HK$37.70 From HK$35.70, Keeps at Buy

- On March 23, China Resources Beer reported a 2025 revenue of RMB 37.985 billion, a 1.68% decline, attributing a RMB 2.877 billion goodwill impairment to its liquor business.  
- The beer segment showed stable performance, with sales of approximately 11.03 million kiloliters, while the liquor business faced challenges with a nearly 30% revenue drop.  
- The company maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook and is focusing on new business models and innovative product offerings to adapt to changing consumer preferences.

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China Resources Beer's "14th Five-Year Plan" Concludes: RMB 2.8 Billion Impairment on Baijiu Business, Premiumization and Diversification Strategies Unchanged

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Hong Kong stocks rose in the morning session, with the Hang Seng Index up 447 points, closing at 24,829 points. The National Index rose 118 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 67 points. Financial stocks performed strongly, with AIA rising nearly 6%, HSBC and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing increasing by 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively. Real estate stocks rebounded, with New World Development up 3.3%. Master Kong earned 21% more last year, and its stock price rose by 6.7%. The total turnover of the market for the half day was HKD 149.586 billion

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In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index rose 447 points in the first half of the day, with AIA increasing nearly 6% and Master Kong's performance boosting the share price of China Resources Beer

Citi released a research report, raising the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 34.6 yuan, up from the previous 33.2 yuan. The report indicates that the average selling price of beer is expected to decline by 4.6% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, but management is optimistic about price growth in 2026. In the first two months of this year, both the average selling price and sales volume of beer achieved year-on-year growth. The firm maintains an "outperform" rating and believes that the recovery of the dining channel will be a potential driver this year

In "The Big Banks," Citigroup lowered the target price for CHINA RES BEER to 34.6 yuan, with average selling prices recovering growth early this year

UBS released a report stating that CHINA RES BEER's performance in 2025 is below expectations, with revenue of RMB 37.985 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%. Although beer business sales grew by 1.4%, the liquor business dragged down EBITDA by 89.5%. Total dividends increased by 34% to HKD 1.021 per share, with a slight improvement in the payout ratio to 53%. The target price was lowered from HKD 32.46 to HKD 31.34, maintaining a "Buy" rating, believing that the beer business is resilient

"Big Banks" UBS: The beer business of China Resources Beer is resilient, with a slight improvement in the dividend payout ratio; target price slightly lowered to HKD 31.34

$CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) Overall, China Resources Beer's performance in 24H2 is in line with expectations under low forecasts. Although the story of premiumization driving ton price increases is still unfolding, during the industry's deep adjustment period, the accelerated clearance of low-end beer has inevitably led to a decline in overall sales for China Resources, resulting in continued negative growth in revenue. In terms of profit, after excluding fixed asset impairment and one-time employee compensation, government subsidies, and other special items caused by factory closures, EBITDA increased by 17.4% year-on-year, and EBITDA margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the improvement in product mix enhancing the company's profitability.In terms of sales volume, China Resources achieved a sales volume of 4.53 million tons in 24H2, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Although the decline in sales volume has narrowed compared to H1, it is still slightly below expectations due to unexpected rainfall during the summer peak season and the lack of significant improvement in on-premise consumption scenarios such as dining and nightlife, coupled with the accelerated clearance of low-end beer.In terms of ton price, the ton price in 24H2 reached 3,076 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year. This is significantly less than the single-digit increases seen in the previous two years, indicating that the pace of the company's premiumization is slowing down amid weakened consumer spending. However, due to generally low market expectations, the ton price slightly exceeded expectations (expected 3,119 yuan/ton).In terms of gross margin, the improvement in the product mix of the beer business and the high growth of premium liquor products (up 35% year-on-year) drove the company's gross margin to increase by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. From an annual perspective, the company's gross margin increased by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year to 42.6%, reaching a five-year high. The expense ratio remained stable compared to the same period last year.Looking at the guidance for 2025, China Resources has raised its sales target for 2025 to low single-digit growth (from flat), reflecting management's optimism about the recovery of the beer industry in 2025. Additionally, based on the disclosed data for January-February 2025, the company's revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, with profit growth significantly outpacing revenue growth.

CHINA RES BEER-R

JP-CRBH@EC2607A(27286.HK)

JP-CRBH@EC2607A Stock Performance Chart

Guoyuan Securities (HK) Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on China Resources Beer (Holdings) Co (CRHKF)

China Resources Beverage's Profit Slips in 2025; Dividend Declared

Nomura Adjusts China Resources Beer (Holdings)' Price Target to HK$44.10 from HK$44.60, Keeps at Buy

Nomura lowers the target price for CR BEVERAGE to 44.1 yuan, rating it as "Buy"

APBS to scale down Singapore brewing, move production to Malaysia and Vietnam