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Hong Kong Stock Market Stamp Duty Boosts Government Revenue, 2026 Budget Forecast Shows Little Increase

Government Announces Budget Forecasting Surplus from 2026/27 Fiscal Year Onwards

Financial Secretary Paul Chan's Budget Speech Predicts HK Economic Growth

Hang Seng Index Futures Closed on February 25th

HSI Futures, HKC Futures, and H shares Index Futures Open Lower than Spot Prices

LJ Group Analyzes Hong Kong Private Housing Construction and Completion

HANG SENG Index Bull and Bear Warrant Ratio and Quantity Updates

Hang Seng Index Futures Night Session Down 0.75%

HSI Night Index Futures Quotation Up 43 Points

Futures Open Higher Than Spot Prices

Hang Seng Index Futures Open 1.52% Higher at 26,787.44

Significant Rise in Singapore Black Index and Overnight Futures

Hong Kong Monetary Authority's Assessment and Outlook of Hong Kong's Economy

Hang Seng Index Night Futures (February) Up 38 Points

HSI Futures Midday Decline Expands to 1%

Hong Kong Futures Open Up 0.05% at 26820 Points

HSI Ends Two-Day Losing Streak, Rises by Nearly 140 Points

HSI Futures Night Session Closed Up 1.04% at 26,778.91

HKMA Injects HKD 4.73 Billion in Liquidity

Hang Seng Index Futures Feb and Mar Contracts Ended Higher

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Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan forecasts economic growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2026, reflecting confidence after a strong recovery last year. The economy grew 3.5 percent in 2023, the fastest since 2021. Chan highlighted improvements in fiscal health, with a balanced consolidated account and a surplus in the operating account. The government plans to enhance support for citizens and small businesses, potentially increasing tax exemptions and civil servant salaries. Significant funding may be allocated for innovation and cultural tourism, aligning with China's development goals.

- Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo projects economic growth of 2.5% to 3.5% for 2026, reflecting confidence in post-pandemic recovery.  
- This forecast surpasses the previous government estimate of 2% to 3% for 2025, highlighting significant financial improvements, including a surplus in operational accounts.  
- The government aims to enhance support for citizens and small businesses while planning investments in key sectors like technology and rural tourism, amidst cautious financial management.

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Hong Kong sees fast growth continuing into 2026 on rebound

Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, announced proposed enhancements to the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) system to protect employee rights and increase investment flexibility. The government plans to consult stakeholders and submit amendment bills, expanding the MPF 'Full Portability' scheme. Additionally, regulations on money lenders will be strengthened. The budget proposal aims to enhance Hong Kong's corporate treasury role, with new tax incentives and a pre-approval mechanism. Legislative amendments will also facilitate internal corporate restructuring and explore tax incentives for gold trading institutions.

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Hong Kong Proposes Enhancements to MPF and Corporate Finance Regulations

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The Hang Seng Index rose over 1% in the afternoon

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The Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated that the plan is to raise the combined borrowing limit for green bonds and infrastructure bonds from the previously announced HKD 700 billion to HKD 900 billion. Over the next five years, the government will issue approximately HKD 160 billion to HKD 220 billion in bonds each year, with about half used to refinance short-term debt issued in recent years; in the future, more long-term bonds will be issued to better match the cash flow duration with the funding needs of engineering projects

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China Southern Hang Seng ETF

Budget Proposal: Chan Mo-po expects to issue bonds of approximately HKD 160 billion to HKD 220 billion annually over the next five years

The Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, stated that the investment income of the Exchange Fund reached HKD 330 billion last year, with total assets exceeding HKD 4.1 trillion. To support infrastructure development, he proposed to transfer HKD 150 billion from the Exchange Fund to the Capital Works Reserve Fund over the next two financial years, with HKD 75 billion each year. In addition, the surplus of the bond fund is expected to exceed HKD 150 billion, and the government will submit a resolution to the Legislative Council, planning to transfer the surplus to the government's consolidated account in the 2026/27 fiscal year

The "Budget" foreign exchange fund will transfer a total of HKD 150 billion to the Capital Works Reserve Fund over the next two financial years to support infrastructure development

The Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced in the "2026 Budget" that the government will continue to issue sustainable bonds to consolidate Hong Kong's position as an international green finance center. The plan includes building a favorable regulatory environment, strengthening cross-sector collaboration, and implementing the "Hong Kong Sustainable Disclosure Guidelines." The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will improve the sustainable finance classification catalog and strive to formulate guidelines for banks' green transformation plans within the year to support the development of green technology projects in the "Belt and Road" regions

- The Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, presented the 2026 budget focusing on enhancing Hong Kong's status as an international green finance center.  
- The government aims to issue sustainable bonds, establish advantageous regulatory frameworks, and strengthen cross-sector collaboration, including the implementation of the Hong Kong Sustainable Disclosure Guidelines.  
- Efforts will also be made to support green technology projects in collaboration with mainland and international financial institutions, facilitating data access for financial institutions to improve green financing and risk assessment efficiency.

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Fiscal Budget 2026 | Government continues to issue sustainable bonds, HKMA strives to formulate guidelines for banks' green transformation planning within the year

Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in Q4 2025, matching preliminary estimates and following a 3.7% expansion in Q3. Private consumption rose to 2.7%, while overall investment surged 10.5%. Government spending slowed to 1.4%. Goods exports increased by 15.5%, and imports rose by 18.4%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose 1%. For the full year, the economy expanded 3.5%, up from 2.6% in 2024.

- In the fourth quarter of 2025, Hong Kong's economy grew by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly up from the revised 3.7% growth in the third quarter.  
- Private consumption increased by 2.7%, while overall investment surged by 10.5%, indicating improved consumer confidence and business outlook, although government spending slowed to 1.4%.  
- For the entire year, Hong Kong's economy achieved a growth rate of 3.5%, surpassing the 2.6% growth recorded in 2024.

Trading Economics

Hong Kong GDP Growth Confirmed at 3.8% in Q4

The Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, stated that the Hong Kong government expects to restore a surplus in its operating accounts ahead of schedule in the fiscal year 2025/26, with the consolidated accounts roughly balanced. Benefiting from stock market performance and economic growth, stamp duty and profits tax increased by nearly HKD 50 billion. It is anticipated that from the fiscal year 2026/27 to 2030/31, the operating accounts will continue to show a surplus, and fiscal reserves will increase to over HKD 700 billion. The government will moderately increase bond issuance to support infrastructure projects, ensuring the resilience and sustainability of public finances

Chan Mo-po: The operating accounts for the fiscal year 2025/26 are expected to return to surplus ahead of schedule, with fiscal reserves projected to increase to HKD 700 billion by the 2030/31 fiscal year

The Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, Chan Mo-po, stated that the "Re-employment Subsidy Trial Scheme" has received an ideal response, with over 37,000 employment cases recorded since its launch a year and a half ago. The funding for the next fiscal year will increase to HKD 222 million. He mentioned that the "Employment Programme for Middle-aged and Elderly Persons" funded nearly 4,500 cases last year. In addition, the Re-training Board also introduced two new training courses specifically for individuals aged 50 and above last year

Budget Proposal: Paul Chan: Funding for the "Re-employment Subsidy Pilot Scheme" for the next fiscal year increased to HKD 222 million

The Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, announced in the "2026 Budget" that the Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority will implement a "full free choice" arrangement, with the first phase covering employees who join after May 1, 2025. The government plans to submit a bill for amendment in the first half of next year to extend this to existing employees who joined earlier, enhancing employee choice. At the same time, the MPFA will optimize the procedures for recovering overdue contributions and increase the flexibility of investing in the Mandatory Provident Fund. Relevant consultations will be conducted this year

Fiscal Budget 2026 | MPF to launch "Fully Flexible" first phase covering employees hired after May 2025

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Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan will lead a tax policy review as part of the 2026-27 budget. He noted that a stock market boom has led to a surplus in the government's operating account for the 2025-26 financial year, estimated at HK$500 million (US$64 million). However, Chan emphasized the need for prudence in maintaining cash reserves to address geopolitical uncertainties and support long-term growth, cautioning against potential market speculations.

- Financial gains in the stock market have allowed Hong Kong's government to achieve a surplus in the 2025-26 fiscal year, one year ahead of schedule.  
- Estimated surpluses could reach approximately 500 million HKD (64 million USD) according to accounting firms.  
- However, financial secretary Paul Chan warns that maintaining cash reserves is crucial to counter geopolitical shocks and to support long-term growth amidst a potentially "complex" geopolitical environment.

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Budget 2026-27: Paul Chan to lead tax policy review as incentives unveiled

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)has evolved into a hybrid market that reflects China’s economic cycle more than Hong Kong’s domestic fundamentals. Its performance is increasingly driven by mainland policy follow-through, earnings durability in platform and financial stocks, and cross-border capital flows via Stock Connect. Valuation alone is no longer a catalyst; sustained upside depends on whether policy support translates into real profit recovery and renewed confidence from long-term global investors.

$XTALPI(02228.HK) The first to rise in the Hong Kong stock watch list! Push it up!

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The exchange rate of HKD against USD is rising rapidly. Will there still be big opportunities in Hong Kong stocks? $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)

While the US stock market hovers under the shadow of tariffs, the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a liquidity-driven structural frenzy. But is this 'Hong Kong stocks feast' the beginning of a trend revaluation, or a short-lived bubble induced by capital?From a macro perspective, the weak dollar cycle and the abundance of Hong Kong dollar liquidity are the core drivers of the Hong Kong stock market. In May, US tariff revenue surged to a peak of $22 billion, yet the CPI remained stable, coupled with the potential impact of immigration policies on the job market, the probability of a Fed rate cut in June-July is extremely low. The US stock market remains in a tug-of-war between 'chicken ribs market and downside risk.' In contrast, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has quickly slid from the strong-side guarantee to the weak-side edge, HIBOR rates are nearly zero, and the abundant liquidity is flooding into new consumption, innovative drugs, and A/H premium targets, driving both blue-chip dividend stocks and growth assets higher.However, the sustainability of the structural revaluation of Hong Kong stocks is highly dependent on the liquidity environment. The current extremely low level of HIBOR has deviated from the US benchmark interest rate. If the Fed's policy shifts or there are changes in the supply and demand of funds, a liquidity retreat could trigger a valuation correction. More critically, the structural premium of the same asset in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares lacks fundamental support. In a market dominated by southbound funds, caution is needed against the risk of valuation overshoot under 'capital frenzy.'In the short term, as long as the cost of borrowing in Hong Kong dollars remains low, there is still room for liquidity-driven revaluation to continue. However, in the long term, whether Hong Kong stocks can escape the 'capital market' dilemma depends on whether corporate earnings can take over liquidity as the anchor of valuation. Investors need to closely monitor changes in HIBOR rates and maintain sensitivity to risks amid the liquidity feast. $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)When the Hong Kong dollar triggers the strong-side convertibility undertaking, the Hong Kong government will be forced to issue Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars (unless Hong Kong abandons the linked exchange rate system due to another crisis caused by excessive base money).Short-term may benefit the Hong Kong stock market.

On a weekly basis, the southbound capital flow in Hong Kong stocks was a net outflow in the past week. This is unusual, as it's the first time this has happened in at least over a year. $HSTECH ETF(03032.HK) $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

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$XTALPI(02228.HK)$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)This is a key macro indicator for Hong Kong stocks.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $XTALPI(02228.HK) Who should be blamed for these poor souls in Hong Kong stocks today? Sigh... damn it

During the 2018 trade war, Gao Shanwen gave a relatively well-known internal speech:Our generation has already made enough money, so young people should just wash up and go to sleep.As for the 2025 tariff war, what I want to say is: young people might not be able to sleep.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK)$Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK)$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$SPDR S&amp;P 500(SPY.US)

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Another day protected by southbound capital! At 13:30 in the afternoon, the southbound capital suddenly surged, and the intraday chart skyrocketed after a 10-minute delay (did you day trade during these 10 minutes? 😂).Unlike yesterday, the southbound capital first rose and then fell in the morning, showing overall weakness. By 13:30, the net purchase was only 1.5 billion. After the surge, the cumulative net purchase for the day reached 5.15 billion. Compared with yesterday, I'm more convinced that there is a will behind the southbound capital.$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) $BABA-W(09988.HK) $TENCENT(00700.HK)

HU#HSI RC2808I(55227.HK)

Hong Kong sees fast growth continuing into 2026 on rebound

Hong Kong Proposes Enhancements to MPF and Corporate Finance Regulations

The Hang Seng Index rose over 1% in the afternoon

Budget Proposal: Chan Mo-po expects to issue bonds of approximately HKD 160 billion to HKD 220 billion annually over the next five years

The "Budget" foreign exchange fund will transfer a total of HKD 150 billion to the Capital Works Reserve Fund over the next two financial years to support infrastructure development