CITIC Securities: The demand for liquor is weak as the Double Festival peak season approaches; pay attention to key signals of supply contraction

CITIC Securities released a research report stating that despite the upcoming peak season of the Double Festivals, the overall feedback on liquor demand is tepid, with a month-on-month improvement but still a 20% demand gap year-on-year. The sales performance of mid-to-low-end liquor is better than that of high-end liquor, and the demand for government and business brands remains insufficient. In the future, attention should be paid to changes on the supply side, and it is expected that positive price indicators will drive inflation and corporate profits to rise, with liquor demand likely to recover. In the short term, wholesale prices still face pressure

Minsheng Securities: The 25H1 liquor industry report relieves pressure and accelerates bottoming out

Minsheng Securities released a research report indicating that the liquor industry will face negative growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, and the industry is currently in an accelerated bottoming phase. Policy headwinds have increased channel pressure, and the industry consensus is that the mid-year report will accelerate clearance. With the concentrated release of demand, it is expected that the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season will accelerate the bottoming of the fundamentals, and a recovery in the financial statements is expected to begin in 2026. Market focus will shift from short-term sales changes to year-on-year trends to verify the demand bottom

Only 6 out of 22 listed liquor companies made more profit

Recently, among the 22 listed liquor companies, only 6 achieved positive revenue and profit growth, indicating a deep adjustment in the industry. Liquor companies are actively seeking transformation towards youthfulness and lower alcohol content, focusing on instant retail, banquet markets, and reduced alcohol levels. Despite the rising industry concentration, there are still structural opportunities

Founder Securities: The liquor industry is bottoming out and deepening, with the advantages of leading enterprises becoming prominent

Fangzheng Securities released a research report indicating that the liquor industry has formed a bottom under multiple policy catalysts. Although there is currently some recovery, it remains at historically low levels. The industry is expected to show differentiation, prioritizing operational stability, with the attributes of dividend assets becoming more prominent. In the first half of 2025, the liquor sector's revenue is projected to be 239.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. High-end liquor is performing better than sub-high-end and regional liquor companies. The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will be important points to observe demand improvement

The consumer sector collectively strengthened, with liquor, food, and retail leading the gains. Stocks such as JAHEN, JINHUI, KJS, GUOGUANG CHAINS, and XUJIAHUI COMMERCIAL hit the daily limit, while Shede Spirits, JiuGui Jiu, New Hope Dairy, Yili, and Golden Dragon Fish rose over 5%