$CHINA RES BEER(00291.HK) Overall, China Resources Beer's performance in 24H2 is in line with expectations under low forecasts. Although the story of premiumization driving ton price increases is still unfolding, during the industry's deep adjustment period, the accelerated clearance of low-end beer has inevitably led to a decline in overall sales for China Resources, resulting in continued negative growth in revenue. In terms of profit, after excluding fixed asset impairment and one-time employee compensation, government subsidies, and other special items caused by factory closures, EBITDA increased by 17.4% year-on-year, and EBITDA margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the improvement in product mix enhancing the company's profitability.In terms of sales volume, China Resources achieved a sales volume of 4.53 million tons in 24H2, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Although the decline in sales volume has narrowed compared to H1, it is still slightly below expectations due to unexpected rainfall during the summer peak season and the lack of significant improvement in on-premise consumption scenarios such as dining and nightlife, coupled with the accelerated clearance of low-end beer.In terms of ton price, the ton price in 24H2 reached 3,076 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year. This is significantly less than the single-digit increases seen in the previous two years, indicating that the pace of the company's premiumization is slowing down amid weakened consumer spending. However, due to generally low market expectations, the ton price slightly exceeded expectations (expected 3,119 yuan/ton).In terms of gross margin, the improvement in the product mix of the beer business and the high growth of premium liquor products (up 35% year-on-year) drove the company's gross margin to increase by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. From an annual perspective, the company's gross margin increased by 1.20 percentage points year-on-year to 42.6%, reaching a five-year high. The expense ratio remained stable compared to the same period last year.Looking at the guidance for 2025, China Resources has raised its sales target for 2025 to low single-digit growth (from flat), reflecting management's optimism about the recovery of the beer industry in 2025. Additionally, based on the disclosed data for January-February 2025, the company's revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, with profit growth significantly outpacing revenue growth.

Understanding the Market | The liquor sector is collectively warming up, with a strong overall consumption atmosphere during the Spring Festival. Baijiu is expected to recover, and beer sales may improve

The liquor sector has collectively rebounded. As of the time of writing, CHINA RES BEER rose 5.94% to HKD 25.85; Zhenjiu Lidu rose 4.21% to HKD 6.69; TSINGTAO BREW rose 3.8% to HKD 51.9; BUD APAC rose 2.71% to HKD 7.58. Xiangcai Securities pointed out that the consumption market during the 2025 Spring Festival performed well, with box office revenues reaching a historical high, and significant growth in tourism, catering, and other sectors, creating a strong overall consumption atmosphere. With policy stimulus and economic recovery, the consumption market shows positive signs of warming, and the fundamentals are gradually improving, suggesting attention to recovery opportunities in the catering chain. Currently, liquor is still in an adjustment period, with inventory pressure remaining, and price stability remains the main theme, focusing on terminal sales performance. Hualong Securities noted that the liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, and with the boost in household consumption, the liquor industry is expected to see a recovery. The current industry valuation is at a historically low level, possessing investment value in the medium to long term. Additionally, the beer industry has a relatively stable competitive landscape, and under the stimulation of active consumption promotion policies, beer sales are expected to improve

CITIC Securities: Continuing the allocation recommendation for leading liquor brands

CITIC Securities research report states that in Q4 2024, the proportion of liquor stocks held by mainland funds is 10.5% / down 1.0 pct quarter-on-quarter, and the proportion held by northbound funds is 7.5% / down 1.3 pcts. Currently, leading liquor companies are continuously enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend rates, buybacks, and shareholdings, thereby increasing investment safety margins. Considering the subsequent consumption stimulus and macroeconomic recovery, we maintain our allocation recommendation for leading liquor brands. In terms of beer, looking ahead to the first half of 2025, we expect overall industry sales to remain stable, and the industry's recovery requires consumption-related policy stimulation

Minsheng Securities Food and Beverage 24Q4 Fund Position Analysis: The Proportion of Heavy Holdings in Liquor Continues to Shrink, While the Proportion of Snacks, Soft Drinks, and Beer Increases

Minsheng Securities released a research report showing that in Q4 2024, the proportion of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector among active equity funds is 7.51%, continuing to decline. Among the sub-sectors, snacks, soft drinks, and beer have seen significant increases in holdings, while the reduction in holdings for liquor is the largest, although its capital allocation remains relatively concentrated. The report points out that with the recovery of demand for liquor during the Spring Festival, channel confidence has somewhat restored, and future attention can be paid to the post-holiday replenishment situation. Overall, the positioning in the food and beverage industry has fallen back to the level of the second quarter of 2017

Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Short Selling Statistics | February 11

According to data from the Zhitong Finance APP, as of February 11, the short-selling statistics for Hong Kong stocks show that the short-selling ratios for SHK PPT-R, CHINA RES BEER-R, and Great Wall Motors-R are 100.00%, 92.02%, and 73.77%, respectively. The short-selling amounts for Alibaba-SW, Tencent Holdings, and Meituan-W are RMB 3.029 billion, RMB 1.899 billion, and RMB 1.781 billion, respectively. The deviation values for Baiyunshan, Beike-W, and ESR are 25.99%, 23.78%, and 18.77%, respectively