$Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) confirming orders of ~$63M from $Camtek(CAMT.US) & ~$39M from $ASMPT.
ASPs imply high-end equipment from Camtek and WB/FC from ASMPT.Source: Chips & Wafers
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ASE, the chip packaging & testing giant, has spent NT$62.08 billion (US$1.96B) on production line equipment so far in June alone to meet booming demand, media report, with the biggest spend by subsidiary SPIL, NT$59.42 billion. Nvidia is a key client of SPIL's.
During its 1st quarter call, ASE raised its 2026 capex forecast to US$8.5 billion from $7 billion previously, and said it expects advanced packaging revenue to top $3.5 billion this year.The article only names 3 equipment vendors specifically, Camtek (Israel), ASMPT (Hong Kong), Semtek Corp. (Taiwan). $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Camtek(CAMT.US) #ASMPT $0522.HK #SemtekSource: Dan Nystedt
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Testing: The critical bottleneck in CPO mass production (TrendForce)
The current testing approach is manual + non-standardized.Which creates a severe throughput bottleneck.For Testing exposure:-> $Formfactor(FORM.US): probe cards/systems-> $Onto Innovation(ONTO.US): inspection + metrology-> $Camtek(CAMT.US): inspection + metrology-> $Keysight Tech(KEYS.US): photonic/optical test-> $Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US): photonic/optical test-> $Aehr Test(AEHR.US): burn-in + testIn case anyone wanted to do further research.Names like $Teradyne(TER.US), Advantest, and Chroma ATE also fall here.So since $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)'s COUPE targets volume production in 2026...solving the testing bottleneck is one of the key unlocks for CPO to scale.Along with things like lasers, FAU, substrates, and advanced packaging.Disclosure: I personally have a position in Aehr.
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Monitoring the situation for you (testing/yields edition):
$Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US) and $Formfactor(FORM.US) earnings: Extremely BullishSo what does this mean?Names like $Onto Innovation(ONTO.US) / $Camtek(CAMT.US) go brr. Throw in $TOWA (6315), since there's indication of aggressive memory production ramp.Names like Msscorps / $Keysight Tech(KEYS.US) should go brrr. Broader upstream yields, test, validation, and inspection for both memory + optical ecosystem go heavily BRRR. And it's a leading indicator for $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $Fabrinet(FN.US), $Lumentum(LITE.US), and others if they're ramping up production. For $Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US):-> $406.8M vs. $393M (beat) 42.8% Y/Y growth.-> $.27 EPS vs $0.2-$0.24Guidance was $427m-$437m, indicating acceleration.For $Formfactor(FORM.US):-> $226M, 32% Y/Y, $.56 EPS vs. $.45-> margins increased a TON to 49% (which indicates pricing power).-> Guidance was $.61 EPS, midpoint ~$240m revenue. "Record demand for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and stronger "Foundry & Logic networking applications"Basically the smaller yields/test ecosystem in general. BRRR.Source: Serenity
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To be honest, the reason I was able to hold onto stocks that doubled this year wasn't by predicting the macro environment or through god-like stock picking. It was by understanding these eight words: Choose the right track, follow the logic. Many people are betting on a reversal or an emotional bottom, while smart money is always asking the same question: Where is the next "physical bottleneck" in AI expansion?
Money will only pile up where there's a "choke point." Below are the four major "bottleneck assets" I've identified after reviewing this year's return curve:
1️⃣ Memory – The Fuel for Computing Power
📍 Targets: $Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US), $Silicon Motion Tech(SIMO.US)
No matter how powerful the computing power is, if the memory can't keep up, the system will freeze. HBM, DRAM, NAND are no longer optional; they are necessities. This is the bottleneck premium.
2️⃣ Photonics – The Achilles' Heel for Eliminating Latency
📍 Targets: $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $AXT(AXTI.US)
When data centers expand to the GW level, even the strongest GPUs are useless if the connection speed can't keep up. Optical interconnect is the lifeline of AI infrastructure.
3️⃣ Power/Grid (Utilities) – Energy is the Foundation
📍 Target: $XLU (Utilities ETF)
The ultimate limit of AI is energy! Data centers are power-hungry monsters. With every round of computing power expansion, the power grid is a passive beneficiary. This is a digital revolution, and even more so, an energy revolution. ⚡️
4️⃣ Advanced Packaging (Capex) – The Last Mile of Implementation
📍 Targets: $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US), $Onto Innovation(ONTO.US), $Camtek(CAMT.US), $Kulicke and Soffa(KLIC.US)
Everyone is watching NVIDIA, but the real production bottleneck is the packaging stage. HBM, Chiplet, and advanced packaging are the true choke points for implementing computing power.
💡 The most important lesson learned this year:
Don't try to be a "reverse savior"! Don't be obsessed with betting on a SaaS recovery or a cybersecurity rebound.
Following liquidity is more important than trying to be clever. When demand explodes, bottleneck assets have inherent pricing power. Keep asking: Where is the next place that will get stuck? Getting in before everyone else sees it clearly is the key to widening the performance gap. 🚀
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Advanced Packaging is running on all cylinders. Don't forget that beyond assembly, you need to test those packages too!
$Camtek(CAMT.US) $KLA(KLAC.US) $Onto Innovation(ONTO.US) #Winway #HanPrecisionSource: Chips & Wafers
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#Huawei rumored to beat $Apple(AAPL.US) in bringing #HBM DRAM To Smartphones.
As HBM proliferates, the demand continues unabated.#SKHynix $SEC $Micron Tech(MU.US) $SMHN $Camtek(CAMT.US) $ASMPT could all be beneficiaries here.Source: Chips & Wafers
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Laura Peters from @SemiEngineering talks about the latest trends discussed at #ECTC. A few things stood out:
· "Chip Manufacturing and Assembly/Packaging are only going to get closer and closer"· RE: Hybrid Bonding - a major issue still not solved is metrology. Keep an eye on $KLA(KLAC.US) $Onto Innovation(ONTO.US) $Camtek(CAMT.US)· The industry seems to have coalesced around Liquid Cooling to deal with large sever thermal issues.Source: Chips & Wafers
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Looking for more plays on #HBM.
$Camtek(CAMT.US) will be another winner - heavy HBM exposure.$SMHN also appealing. Their tool for temporary bonding/debonding will be very important, and with big market share at $Micron Tech(MU.US) and $SEC there is a lot of additional capacity coming online.Source: Chips & Wafers
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Chinese company, Qinghe Wafer, recently announced a Hybrid Bonding tool with impressive specs:
▫️Bonding accuracy: 100nm▫️UPH: 1,000I'd assume those don't go together; meaning they are not hitting 100nm accuracy at 1,000 UPH.But still, it pays to keep a keen eye on Chinese Equipment Manufacturers for breakthroughs in advanced packaging machines.This article also talks about Chinese companies developing temporary bonding/debonding tools, which are key for applications like HBM stacks and CoWoS packages.$BESI $SMHN #ASMPT #EVG $Kulicke and Soffa(KLIC.US) $Camtek(CAMT.US)Source: Chips & Wafers
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Wealth Code！$10,000 ➡️➡️$2.7 million！
Five best stocks of the past decade are Nvidia、AMD、Camtek (CAMT), Fair Isaac (FICO), and Tesla (TSLA). These stocks have compound annual growth rates between 40% and 75%.
On the low end, a $10,000 investment in Tesla 10 years ago is worth $290,000 today.
On the high end, a $10,000 investment in Nvidia back then is worth nearly $2.7 million now.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Tesla(TSLA.US) $Fair Isaac(FICO.US) $Camtek(CAMT.US) $AMD(AMD.US)
