AI Gossip

Prices for advanced semiconductor testing are set to rise 10% - 30% as supply falls far short of demand, media report, calling upcoming price increases ‘the strongest in history.’ Chip testing times continue to lengthen as chips become more complex and demand booms as Cloud giants launch their own AI chips. Testing prices for rush orders for smaller clients have doubled, the report says, adding that ASE, KYEC, PTI and Ardentec are all benefitting from stronger pricing. $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $Amkor Tech(AMKR.US) $Teradyne(TER.US) $Formfactor(FORM.US) $Cohu(COHU.US) #BESI #Advantest #TokyoElectron #ChromaATE

Source: Dan Nystedt

Formosa Plastics is eyeing Texas for a major expansion in US semiconductor-related chemical production to supply TSMC and other US-based clients, media report, citing company Chairman WB Kuo. The company already operates a petrochemical mega-site in Texas. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #FormosaPlastics #supplychain

Source: Dan Nystedt

ASML, AMAT, Lam and KLA are all engaged in Terafab project. SpaceX will spend $3B+ on pilot line and $16.8B on 1st Phase high volume fab. KLA could play a critical role in Terafab's early ramp (inspection and metrology tools) to tackle process defects and accelerate yield learning.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

Taiwan AI power supply giant Lite-On Technology has inked a US$350 million (NT$11.06B) contract for construction of its plant in McKinney, Texas, aimed at high-voltage DC power racks and AI infrastructure production, media report, adding the contract is part of a US$919 million plan approved by Lite-On’s board in April. Lite-On’s 2026 capex plan is now NT$18 billion, versus NT$7 billion last year. #Texas #AI #liteon

Source: Dan Nystedt

The start of Nvidia Vera Rubin server production, mass Blackwell GB300 and B300 server production are fueling record high revenue at AI server giant Wistron, and AMD CEO Lisa Su’s recent visit to a new Wistron plant (Zhubei A1) point to continued strength with Helios server orders as well, media report.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Fragmented customer landscape is good for semicaps. Two years ago, TSMC dependency emerged as a concern for suppliers (Intel/memory weakness). But things took a different turn with fragmented leading-edge foundry landscape (five leading-edge players outside China now) and growing influence of memory and packaging houses. A larger customer base means better profit margins, as no single customer has outsized bargaining power.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

MediaTek's 3rd quarter revenue hit a record high NT$168.06 billion, up 18.2% year-on-year and up 10.2% over the 2nd quarter, media report, also exceeding the top end of guidance (NT$159.8B).

Source: Dan Nystedt

TSMC supplier Gudeng Precision will begin operations at its first USA plant in Glendale, Arizona in the 4th quarter to supply semiconductor equipment to TSMC and other clients, as well as produce aerospace-related products, media report, adding Gudeng executives said Arizona has complete industrial clusters in both sectors. Gudeng’s top chip-related products include wafer carriers, advanced packaging carriers. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #semiconductors #Arizona

Source: Dan Nystedt

Taiwan's semiconductor exports in September rose 46.1% year-on-year to US$29.74 billion, raising January thru September to $220.0B, up 47.3%, and leading Taiwan exports to an all-time high for a single month in September.

Source: Dan Nystedt

People don't realize what's happening at the OSATs right now.

Source: Chips & Wafers

Taiwanese ABF names on a tear🔥

Source: Chips & Wafers

TSMC September Monthly & 3Q26

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

TSMC’s 3rd quarter revenue rose to a record high NT$1.49 trillion (US$46.70B), beating the top end of guidance ($45.8 billion), on strong demand for AI chip production.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Marvell's revenue will grow from $8B in CY25 to $12B in CY26, $20B in CY27 and $80B by CY30 ($70-$90B mid point). For comparison, Qualcomm's semiconductor business is 3x bigger than Marvell in CY26 but will be $60B by FY29 and unless huge growth happens they will be smaller company than Marvell in CY30.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

UMC’s sales in September rose 27.2% to a fresh record high NT$25.35 billion, media report, sending third quarter sales up 25.56% to NT$74.24 billion, the 2nd best quarter ever and a 4-year high. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Taiwan prosecutors have indicted 10 company executives for allegedly re-selling US military-grade chips to China, media report, adding the chips, from Analog Devices and Texas Instruments, are used in a range of military hardware. Charges include fraud, forgery and money laundering. Prosecutors are seeking one to ten year sentences for the executives. $Analog Devices(ADI.US) $Texas Instruments(TXN.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

Taiwan chip packaging firms Winstek Semi and Sigurd Micro both forecast strong 2027 sales due to AI-related demand, and Winstek more than doubled 2026 capex, media report, citing executives at a quarterly conference on Monday. Sigurd executives said 2026 capex could be increased soon.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Synopsys thinks it's hard for AI to displace its moat in foundry sign-off. This is an area strongly protected by EDA incumbents Synopsys and Cadence. Startups couldn't break this foundry interface moat.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

After recent #HBM despec news, Disco ($6416.TYO) has been a very popular Short. But it's a dangerous one:

Source: Chips & Wafers

Micron profitability HBM vs non-HBM

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

TSMC Revenue vs Fabless inventory

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

Rumor: TSMC plans to build a 2nd semiconductor manufacturing campus in the USA, with Dallas, Texas seen as a contender for six fabs, media report, citing chip equipment makers. The move is aimed at satisfying demand from customers for USA production, and reducing supply chain risks, the report says, adding TSMC declined comment. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

NXP Semiconductors and joint venture partner Vanguard (VIS) held a grand opening ceremony for their first 12-inch fab in Singapore on Monday, media report, with executives saying a 2nd fab may be announced by end-2026 due to strong demand. The 44,000 wafers per month capacity in the first fab has already been booked, while AI related demand has already filled most mature-process 8-inch fabs, said VIS Chairman Leuh Fang, making further investment likely.

Source: Dan Nystedt

John Lau's presentation on glass core substrates included a fascinating contrarian take on what glass should actually be optimized for 🧵

Source: Chips & Wafers

TSMC plans to raise prices 3% to 6% in January 2027, with higher increases for advanced manufacturing processes, DigiTimes reports, adding TSMC’s visibility now extends to 2030.

Source: Dan Nystedt