$Cisco(CSCO.US) is the best looking swing right now. We initiated a swing earlier today.
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CSCL57.5321.88% ( +1.062 )
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BofA: Switching Trends
Data Center (DC) Switching (66% of Market)Data center switching remains the largest segment and grew 50% YoY in 1Q26, driven heavily by cloud deployments: > AI Back-End Switching: Grew 121% YoY, now accounting for ~38% of the DC switching market compared to 26% a year ago. > Front-End Switching: Grew 25.6% YoY, accelerating from 11.8% growth in 1Q25. > Vendor Standings: In the aggregate DC market, Arista leads with a 21.1% market share, followed by Cisco at 17.8% and Celestica at 13.2%. Key Vendor & Customer Segment Shifts> Cisco’s AI Back-End Breakthrough: Cisco expanded its AI back-end DC switching market share from zero last year to 7.9% in 1Q26. Specifically within the Hyperscaler back-end segment, Cisco jumped to 13.2% (matching Arista and Nvidia), largely due to penetration into Meta's 800G leaf switch layer. > AI Back-End Leaders: White-box manufacturer Celestica remains the largest player in AI back-end switching with a 26.3% share, followed by Nvidia at 24.5% and Arista at 12.1%. > Nvidia Dominates Tier-2 AI: Nvidia commands a massive 57.2% share of the Tier-2/Neo Cloud AI back-end market, demonstrating a strong full reference design value proposition. > Arista's Tier-2 Front-End Strength: Arista holds 32.0% of the Tier-2 Front-End market, closely chased by Cisco at 21.6%.Campus Switching (34% of Market)> Steady Improvement: The segment grew 15.1% YoY in 1Q26, consistently tracking at a 9%+ growth baseline compared to historical averages of 1–2%. Growth is primarily driven by enterprise product refreshes. > Cisco Dominance: Cisco heavily leads the Campus market with a 53.5% share. Analysts expect Cisco to gain further share over the coming quarters as its Catalyst 4000 series (2026) and Catalyst 6000 series (late 2027) reach End-of-Service (EOS), triggering mandatory client refreshes.$Cisco(CSCO.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Arista Networks(ANET.US) $Celestica(CLS.US)
+1 - W
Scanning for leading stocks (outperforming at least 85% of the $SPY) near the 50SMA... ⬇️👀
Texas Instruments $Texas Instruments(TXN.US)Seagate $Seagate Tech(STX.US)Western Digital $Western Digital(WDC.US)GE Vernova $GE Vernova(GEV.US)Corning $Corning(GLW.US)Warner Bros Discovery $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD.US)Nucor $Nucor(NUE.US)Franklin Resources $Franklin Resources(BEN.US)Cummins $Cummins(CMI.US)FedEx $FedEx(FDX.US)Caterpillar $Caterpillar(CAT.US)Viatris $Viatris(VTRS.US)Cisco $Cisco(CSCO.US)
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AI is not a bubble.
Lazy AI bears point to $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)'s market cap and through PTSD, claim it resembles $Cisco(CSCO.US) in March 2000.However, any useful bearish analysis should look at what actually made the 1990s market a bubble from a macro sense, and whether those conditions exist today.I now refer you to the attached chart.In the late 1990s the two lines veered apart. Tech investment went vertical toward ~4.5% of GDP, while the economy-wide profit share rolled over from its 1997 high and fell hard into 2000. Investment surged while profitability eroded...bubble!Today, the lines rise in tandem. Tech investment has pushed to roughly 4.9% of GDP, above the dotcom peak and climbing more steeply, while pre-tax corporate profits sit near 14% of GDP. Meanwhile leverage has (mostly) stayed contained and the US current account deficit is shrinking. However, bears point to record levels of investment in isolation, choosing to ignore the growing profitability in addition. Are they dumb, or are they ignorant?Probably both.In the run up to March 2000, share prices rose and multiples exploded. The market paid more and more for each dollar of invisible earnings. This time, forward P/Es have barely moved even as share prices rocketed, because earnings expectations rose alongside them. For example, the Nasdaq 100 trades around 23x forward earnings, near its own 10Y average versus ~60x in March 2000.But...but....the market is so concentrated!! 1! 1!Yes, the ten largest S&P 500 companies account for ~40% of the index, above the dotcom peak. But those ten companies contribute around 30% of total market earnings, compared to under 20% in 2000, and trade at roughly a 50% premium to the rest of the market against a premium north of 100% at the prior peak. Now, bears will say: "If the rally is earnings driven, everything depends on whether the earnings persist!"Correct.But unfortunately for the bears, this is where things get uncomfortable.AI type names have added on the order of $27 trillion in market value since late 2022, up from roughly $19 trillion just seven months earlier. Set that against any weak attempt to discount the additional profit streams AI can plausibly generate for US companies (estimates cluster in the trillions) and the market has capitalised a multiple of the realistic prize. Not all of that $27 trillion is AI (the hyperscalers run enormous non-AI businesses), and more aggressive assumptions on adoption and productivity can lift the number. But closing the gap requires increasingly heroic assumptions: - that recent shifts in earnings shares are highly persistent- that the boom's suppliers capture an outsized slice of AI's total economic gains- that the economy-wide profit share keeps climbing indefinitelyAlright, cool. But what about all the circular financing?!- Nvidia has committed tens of billions to OpenAI while remaining its primary chip supplier- OpenAI has signed a cloud commitment with $Oracle(ORCL.US) reported around $300B- Oracle in turn buys from Nvidia- $Microsoft(MSFT.US) is simultaneously OpenAI's largest investor and one of its largest vendorsTrue, this somewhat resembles the dotcom vendor financing where Cisco booked loans to cash stricken carriers as revenue (roughly a tenth of sales at the peak), much of it later written off. However, today's arrangements are mostly equity stakes in counterparties with genuinely fast growing revenue rather than disguised loans to fund purchases, and Nvidia has lately been unwinding parts of its ecosystem book.And according to analyst reports, even the AI labs like Anthropic have now turned profitable. A feat many thought would be impossible only a year ago.Personally, I treat this circularity as risk rather than a point to build a bear case around since it's all ultimately leading to greater earnings across the board. Even for fronteir labs. Shock!This then leaves the one key question:Will barriers to entry protect today's profits from erosion? This entirely depends on each company's position in the AI supply chain. - At the model layer, barriers are relatively fragile where frontier models will almost certainly converge longer-term, and open source alternatives have the ability to reset price floors. However, AI soverignty will ultimately result in the likes of OpenAI/Anthropic winning.- At the hyperscaler layer, $Amazon(AMZN.US), $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Meta Platforms(META.US), and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) are set to spend (currently) $750B for 2026 AI capex where falling behind is not an option. These companies are led by people smarter than you or I - do you think they'll risk their entire business collapsing for AI? No. In fact, you can already see that AI is boosting their earnings measurably in recent earnings.- Going further down, you've got irreplaceable companies such as $ASML(ASML.US) (EUV machines), $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) (CoWoS packaging), and HBM with $Micron Tech(MU.US), SK Hynix and Samsung who are gated by long qualification cycles and multi year LTAs where demand > supply up to the 2030's.The risk of a 2000 style valuation bubble is massively lower than the bearish consensus believes.The world is revolving around AI, and that'll continue for the forseeable future.
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Some AI stocks that are worth buying every dip to 50ma.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) - Duh! $Micron Tech(MU.US)$Broadcom(AVGO.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US) - Duh! $Celestica(CLS.US)$Dell Tech(DELL.US)$Cisco(CSCO.US)$GE Vernova(GEV.US) - My fav of the list. - H
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Synopsys(SNPS.US) Synopsys Launches Multiphysics Fusion Solutions for Advanced Chip Design
👉 𝐊𝐞𝐲 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:➤ 𝐒𝐲𝐧𝐨𝐩𝐬𝐲𝐬 launched its first 𝐌𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐡𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐅𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧 solutions for customer deployment.➤ Platform combines Synopsys AI-powered EDA tools with 𝐀𝐧𝐬𝐲𝐬 golden signoff analysis.➤ Solutions integrate multiphysics analysis across 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠, 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐜𝐥𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞, 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢-𝐝𝐢𝐞, and 𝐚𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐨𝐠 workflows.➤ Multiphysics Fusion for Timing Signoff enables 𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝟑𝐱 faster runtimes with SPICE-accurate analysis.➤ Design Closure solution delivers 𝐮𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝟏𝟎𝐱 faster closure and improved PPA.➤ Multi-die solution provides concurrent 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐥, and 𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐜 analysis.➤ Platform uses 𝐍𝐕𝐈𝐃𝐈𝐀 CUDA-X libraries and GPU acceleration for complex workloads.➤ Market leaders including 𝐂𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐨, 𝐌𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐚𝐓𝐞𝐤, 𝐍𝐕𝐈𝐃𝐈𝐀, and 𝐒𝐚𝐦𝐬𝐮𝐧𝐠 validated the technology.➤ Synopsys said the platform helps shift chip development from 𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧 to 𝐜𝐨-𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧.👉 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐈𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬:➤ Growing AI and HPC chip complexity increases demand for 𝐦𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐢𝐩𝐡𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐜𝐬-𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐞 design tools.➤ Faster design closure can reduce development costs and 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞-𝐭𝐨-𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭.➤ Early system-level insights may improve chip 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞, 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲, and reliability.👉 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭:➤ "Multiphysics is fundamentally reshaping how advanced semiconductor designs are engineered, driving a shift from costly overdesign to integrated, system-aware co-design. Our Multiphysics Fusion portfolio unifies Synopsys and Ansys technologies to embed physics directly into digital and analog workflows, enabling engineering teams to design across domains with fewer iterations, improved productivity and more optimized silicon for next-generation systems." — 𝐒𝐚𝐧𝐣𝐚𝐲 𝐁𝐚𝐥𝐢, Senior Vice President of EDA Product Management and Strategy at Synopsys.➤ "By unifying multiphysics analysis and timing signoff across digital, analog, photonic and multi-die designs, Synopsys Multiphysics Fusion technology gives us earlier insight into cross-domain interactions across silicon, advanced packaging and optical domains, which makes it possible for us to improve predictability, reduce late-stage rework, and achieve a runtime that's 10 times faster than before." — 𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐬𝐢𝐞𝐡, Vice President at MediaTek.➤ "Synopsys is using NVIDIA accelerated computing and CUDA-X libraries, including cuDSS, which delivers up to 13x GPU acceleration, to scale increasingly complex SPICE simulations, electromagnetics, and power-integrity workloads. In addition, Synopsys Multiphysics Fusion solutions enable up to 5x faster design closure and up to 86% IR fix rates in selected pilot designs." — 𝐓𝐢𝐦 𝐂𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐚, Vice President and General Manager of Computational Engineering at NVIDIA.➤ "Synopsys' Multiphysics Fusion technology provides a unified, all-aware timing signoff platform by integrating PrimeTime with multiphysics insight, delivering SPICE-accurate correlation and enabling margin recovery. This is increasingly important as we pursue higher levels of integration, performance, and reliability across advanced process and multi-die technologies." — 𝐇𝐲𝐮𝐧𝐠-𝐎𝐜𝐤 𝐊𝐢𝐦, Vice President and Head of the Foundry Design Technology Team at Samsung Electronics. - P
The Vatican Bank has a US equity index that tracks stocks that are "consistent with Catholic teachings"
Top 10 positions:1. $Micron Tech(MU.US) 7.59%2. $Broadcom(AVGO.US) 5.22%3. $Apple(AAPL.US) 4.85%4. $Tesla(TSLA.US) 4.68%5. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) 4.67%6. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM.US) 3.52%7. $Intel(INTC.US) 3.27%8. $Cisco(CSCO.US) 3.25%9. $Visa(V.US) 3.10%10. $Home Depot(HD.US) 3.09%Hilariously ironic index composition.
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[Task Coins Giveaway] PC-Era Giants Are Back – Who Leads the First Half of June?
The AI Agent wave is rewriting a hidden narrative — PC-era veterans that went quiet for a decade are staging the most stunning comebacks of the AI infrastructure supercycle. Intel is up 579% YTD, Nokia just hit a 16-year high, and Corning has doubled…
Who will gain the most by Jun 13?
Predict correctly and win 500 Task Coins!
🔥 Top Contenders:
- $Intel(INTC.US): Up 579% YTD. Server CPU capacity sold out for 2026, prices up 10–20% — the most direct winner of the AI infra supercycle.
- $Corning(GLW.US): Up 124% YTD. AI clusters need 16x the fiber of traditional servers — data center fiber demand is at an all-time high.
- $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US): Up 156% YTD, 16-year high. IP routing and optical gear keeps landing major cloud orders — “outdated” label is officially dead.
- $Cisco(CSCO.US): Up 55% YTD. $5.3B in AI networking orders booked, target raised to $9B — ecosystem moat captures the biggest slice.
All four have posted jaw-dropping YTD gains, but the AI infra supercycle is only at halftime.
Who will take the lead over the next two weeks?
🎁 500 Task Coins for correct picks!
📌 Follow @Longbridge Singapore
⏳ Voting ends Thursday, Jun 4
🎉 Rewards will be distributed within 5 working days.
Which ticker will gain the most by Jun 13?
INTC 🔵60%GLW 🌐10%NOK 📡18%CSCO 🛜12%Voting ended549 votes - A
Week 4 – Market Resilience & Portfolio Rebalancing
As we move through the final week of May, the portfolio continues to show resilience despite some sector-specific volatility. Intel (INTC) maintaining a dominant position with a +150.78% gain, and Astera Labs (ALAB) following strong with +69.11%.
Trade Recaps: Trimming & Adding
Taking Profits: After hitting triple-digit gains, I have been actively trimming my position in POET Tech to lock in those wins
New Additions: I have increased exposure to Astera Labs and NVIDIA to lean further into the AI infrastructure growth cycle.
Portfolio Cleanup: I have begun rotating capital out of some underperforming assets to streamline the holdings, evidenced by the reduction in certain positions that were dragging on the total portfolio weight.
Insights & Strategy
The strategy remains focused on "picks and shovels" within the AI trade. Even with the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) and Cisco (CSCO) showing slight red, the outsized performance of chipmakers and AI infrastructure stocks provides a cushion. My risk management remains centered on trailing stops, especially on high-beta names, to protect capital from sudden market pullbacks.
Risk Management
The volatility in names like Hims & Hers (-28.41%) and Uranium Energy (-12.20%) serves as a constant reminder to keep position sizes small in speculative growth plays. Moving forward, I am keeping a close eye on the broader macro environment to ensure that my concentration in semiconductor stocks doesn't become an excessive risk if the market enters a consolidation phase.
My Portfolio Health Check - H
$CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) | 𝐂𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐤𝐞: Stifel maintains 𝐁𝐮𝐲, raises 𝐏𝐓 𝐭𝐨 $𝟔𝟔𝟎
Analyst sees CrowdStrike benefiting from AI adoption and agentic security demand, supporting sustained high-teens growth and margin expansion
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)the recent AI related stocks like Cisco show that investments are not slowing down yet. Breaking 200 psychological mark and closing above signals that the market is pricing further growth. Even Trump is buying! Follow the boss!
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The market narrative is increasingly shifting toward a coordinated pro-growth, pro-AI policy backdrop, with US-China détente, clearer crypto regulation, and sustained hyperscaler spending reinforcing confidence across the AI supply chain. However, parabolic price action across semis and adjacent infrastructure also raises near-term positioning risk, especially after rapid multi-name re-ratings. A balanced approach may favour selective exposure to structural beneficiaries — AI infrastructure, data-centre enablers, and commodity-linked cashflow names — over indiscriminate momentum chasing. In Singapore, dispersion is widening sharply, suggesting active sector rotation and earnings selectivity may outperform broad indexing in this phase.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk
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- D
The market has been going up and looks like it keeps doing so. But I am still cautious and prefer not to join the FOMO club. Stay defensive.
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- H
Be careful my friends. The market looks like it is going up but only a few names are propping the market up. Looks like a concerted effort by smart money to keep distributing under the hood. Stay safe!
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- I
With Trump holdings disclosure, there are really some very interesting names that are promising. I think it is a good idea to analyse those names specific!
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- M
I think the momentum in the current market is still very strong, there has not been significant decline in weeks. It is dangerous to bet against momentum, hence no short position for me!
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- L
The Singapore market seems to be weak lately probably due to funds rotating back to risk-off FOMO into the AI rally. Iran noises seems to be dialled back lately to focus on the Trump-Xi buddy buddy session.
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- J
There are still opportunities in SG mid-caps, but don't forget SG blue chips who were beaten down recently due to lower profit in the latest results. Good luck, everyone!!!
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- D
I am still riding the AI parabola but I will be wary of adding more at this point as the risk is higher of being trapped at or near the peak.
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