Everyone is excited with Warsh’s maiden speech. He is probably going to defend rates and say that AI is deflationary and therefore there is nothing to worry.
PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished...
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)
I will talk about a company in one of the important segments of the AI buildout for the fifth post of this ongoing trade showcase episode.
Much has been mentioned about energy and memory ad being critical for AI. Networking is another bottleneck and is very important for AI to scale.
The company I am talking about is in this supply chain and it provides the optic component of networking which will be crucial in the next phase of the AI buildout with NPO and CPO etc.
Technically, AAOI is in a big decade long cup pattern with price already broken out above the prior ATH of 103.5. Price is now testing these levels and a successful retest will see new ATHs. EW patterns are also leaning towards this being a third wave and the trend looks to favour the bulls.
Fundamentals and Technicals are aligning nicely so this looks like a good name to invest for the long term.
@Captain's Treasure
Interesting posture from the market as software rallies along with Nvidia. Might be the short end of software covering and selling long end high beta to cover. Good opportunity to accumulate more AI beneficiaries.
One stock added $442 billion and ten of eleven sectors still closed red. Tonight a brand new Fed chair speaks, and Singapore's factory data quietly says the AI trade is real.
$Apple(AAPL.US)
Apple is teasing with their latest Apple event scheduled Sep 10. Many are expecting the folding phone (at last!).
But this is the thing and I have said it many times. The money is flowing to AI and the consumers are being supported by the top 10% percentile. To be fair, most Apple consumers fall in this category so I guess they will still be ok. However Apple needs to stay relevant and in the forefront to avoid a Nokia scenario.
They are already dependent on others for the AI infrastructure but at least it saves them on the capital
cost. Now they need to translate those savings into the AI industry. I see some potential in the Mac minis and their appeal as Agentic AI bases. How they market their upcoming Mac lineups will be interesting as well as telling.
@Captain's Treasure
What a result by Nvidia. The result was quite comprehensive and telling that AI is here and staying around. Well done Nvidia. 👏
Nvidia's $108B guide lifted software with it, but PCE at 3.7% leaves Friday's Warsh keynote deciding the week. Singapore's quieter number: core inflation at a 21-month high of 2.0%.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)
To elaborate on my estimated guess of 225, I am
choosing that rough estimate based on technicals.
Nvidia is tricky to chart. She has a clear uptrend. However the waves are a bit tricky and can go either way.
So to make it simple, I choose the hourly 200 EMA and 200 MA as a rough guide where 200 MA is 211.8 and 200 EMA is 212.2. Initially, I choose an estimate in between which gives 212.
However, the market is liking the earnings results and price is green pre market. Hence, I cannot ignore price action and adjusting my estimates to reflect that.
😊
@Captain's Watch
Its Nvidia D-day! The fate of the tech world depends on it. Or does it? Nvidia has always outperformed such that the market needs to be wowed to be impressed.
Nvidia snapped its seven-day losing streak Tuesday, closing up 2.2% to $213.05, hours before its most anticipated earnings report in years drops after today's close. The rally came alongside a third s...
$GLD SG(GSD.SG)
Gold has done pretty pretty well lately. She has rebounded off her lows in July and never looked back. A gap breakout above the wedge upper trend line as well as upper rectangular channel trend line on 5th August was very telling. It was a type 1 breakout, clean as can be. Price gapped up again on 7th July before consolidating and then broke above its daily 200MA on 20th August. Safe to say the bulls have made their intentions clear.
Now price is at the 50% retrace off the bottom. Are the bulls strong enough to push further ahead or do they need a breather and a healthy pause before continuing their march to maybe new highs? Or will the bears push them back? Time will tell.
@Captain's Treasure
The market continues recalibrating itself and rotating as it seems to position for reflation moving forward. Tech is pulling back as a result but they might be waiting for guidance for Nvidia for the go signal.
Nvidia has now fallen for seven straight sessions to $208.48 Monday, its longest losing streak since 2022, as investors turn cautious ahead of Wednesday's earnings — a slide compounded by a memory-chi...
This market is like a yoyo. Up down up down. Just watch where the yoyo wants to go. So far trending up. So let’s hope it stays that way. 😊
US-Canada trade talks collapsed Friday, and new 50% tariffs on roughly $20B of Canadian goods took effect over the weekend, with Ottawa vowing to match them dollar-for-dollar; another round looms Tues...
The markets are poised nicely amidst the selloff due to rates jitter. The broad market index and the QQQ are interestingly at the 38.2 retrace of their fourth wave whereas the SMH looks like a wave 2 at its 38.2. Crypto has just started their engines. Looks like the market might be preparing for a risk on melt up?
Two of the week's biggest stories unwound Thursday: Walmart crashed 9% as US sales growth hit its slowest pace since 2020, and Moderna gave back almost all of Wednesday's record surge, its worst day e...
The US has to pass the clarity act. The whole gigantic financial machinery cannot proceed without it. It is that important!
Yo, let's set the scene.Last night, the big table at the White House — and pretty much every major name in crypto was in the room.You had the regulators — SEC, CFTC — sitting on one side. And on the o...
Yay! US has shown their intent and are telling the bond market not to have ideas as they will defend yields no matter what FUD the narratives are.
Moderna had its best day ever Wednesday: shares soared 177% after its melanoma vaccine, developed with Merck, became the first mRNA cancer therapy to succeed in a Phase 3 trial. Merck rose alongside i...
$Micron Tech(MU.US)
Context:
Micron is a stock which I bought at the earlier part of the year when I realised memory is going to be an important component of the AI buildout.
My trade:
Closed - Micron had a good run after I bought and decided to take profits.
Takeaway: On hindsight, it is easier to say I should have just held on to the position. I mean look at Micron’s price now. But then again, profit is still profit and money in the pocket. I am thankful and grateful. There will be other opportunities.
@Captain's Treasure
When you compare general markets and tech, it is obvious that one is not for the faint hearted. Looks like risk off rotation again, from risk on high beta to defensive names like healthcare and defensive tech.
Bonds set the price of everything yesterday, and an SG portfolio felt it from both ends. Memory took the worst of it, Micron handing back the $1,000 level it won a session earlier, while the STI slid ...
