0909 ｜Dolphin Research Focus

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Aug CPI rose 0.8% YoY, with core CPI back to 1.0%. Energy and consumer electronics were the main drivers.PPI inflation widened to 3.8% YoY on pass-through from higher global commodity prices. Prices show a structural recovery with consumption improving moderately and industrial activity rebounding more than expected.This supports upstream resources and industrial profits in the near term, but imported inflation and soft domestic demand could diverge, leaving limited room for monetary easing.

2. Reports suggest DeepSeek has engaged CITIC Securities as its sponsor and plans to kick off its IPO process within the year. Fundraising size, timetable, and valuation are not set, and both sides declined to comment.This would be the first of the 'Hangzhou Six' to explicitly pursue an A-share listing, opting for the STAR Market’s fifth standard with no profit/revenue hurdles. The company is only at the sponsor engagement stage and has not filed yet.Market chatter pegs a private valuation target at RMB 500 bn, with revenue of Approx. RMB 475 mn in the first seven months of 2026. On that math, the P/S would be about 37x higher than OpenAI, implying significant IPO pricing pressure.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$Marvell Tech(MRVL.US)

Meta launched Muse, a consumer-facing AI personal agent, doubling down on the AI Agent track for the C-end. Powered by Muse Spark 1.3 and running on dedicated cloud VMs, it can shop online, send emails, and fill forms for users, with integrations including Google Workspace and Ticketmaster.Pricing includes a free tier and $20/$100 subscriptions, initially rolling out in the U.S. This is central to Zuckerberg’s vision of a 'personal superintelligence', betting on a consumer agent entry point and aiming to reduce reliance on ads.

2.$Intel(INTC.US)

Intel plans another ~10% hike on PC CPUs in Oct, its third round of price increases since end-2025. CEO Chen Liwu is reviewing low-margin Small Core lines, which could be discontinued, and the company is rumored to cut 5%–10% of staff.The strategy is shifting from chasing share to boosting margins to regain pricing power. However, the PC market is projected to edge down to ~250 mn units by 2027, and repeated hikes may curb upgrades.More importantly, trimming small-core lines could hand Qualcomm and MediaTek, among other Arm players, openings in IPC, IoT, and embedded markets with long lifecycles. This poses a double-edged risk of better profitability but lost share.

3.$Apple(AAPL.US)

Apple will hold a product event in Cupertino at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Sept 10, the first under new CEO John Ternus. Mark Gurman reports the first foldable will be named 'iPhone Duo', starting at around $2,000 for 256GB and approaching $3,000 at the top end, with sales as early as Oct.The iPhone 18 Pro series, a new Apple Watch, and AirPods are expected alongside. The foldable represents Apple’s most significant hardware form-factor shift in years.At a $2,000 ultra-premium price point, early shipments will be constrained and the product will serve more as a halo device. Near-term volume will hinge on market acceptance.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Oil & gas storage and transportation; marine freight & storage; coal & consumable fuels.

HK: Textiles; oil & gas storage and transportation; residential construction companies.

U.S.: Port operators; diversified chemicals; copper.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1) China Aug M2 YoY.

2) U.S. Aug PPI MoM; U.S. Aug PPI YoY; U.S. Jul wholesale sales MoM.

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosure