NIO260116C9000.US

0707 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector

Global semis have sold off in recent days, though HK and A-share semis edged up today. In U.S. pre-market, Micron and peers are still sliding.

Trillion-scale expansion plans by top memory makers have stoked concerns about future overcapacity. Morgan Stanley flagged chip rally momentum peaking, with flows rotating to hyperscalers.

Adding Meta’s move to lease idle compute (cf. Dolphin Research: 'Compute too pricey — is Meta flipping the table?') further weakens hardware demand expectations. Prior winners are seeing concentrated profit-taking.

Near term, this pressures sentiment across memory and advanced equipment. But the long-term thesis of AI compute scarcity remains intact...

Jun 29 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry

1) Per U.S. officials, the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause reciprocal strikes, with talks to resume on 6/30 in Doha, Qatar, shifting the focus from the nuclear file to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The session originally slated for Switzerland was relocated amid an escalation.

Recent attacks on merchant shipping in the strait had pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations. The current pause should ease the geopolitical risk premium near term, a positive for global growth stocks.

That said, core disputes over the nuclear issue and U.S. troop deployments in the Middle East remain unresolved, leaving any truce fragile. If the Doha talks reach a transit consensus, the energy sector likely stays under pressure while consumer and tech valuation recovery continues; if talks break down...

0609 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The US DoD updated its Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies, covering internet, semis, NEVs and biopharma. New additions include Alibaba, BIDU, WuXi AppTec, BYD and Nio, while Huawei, Tencent and Hikvision were already on the list; listed firms issued statements denying defense-related biz and said they will appeal. The list restricts US Gov. procurement rather than imposing financial sanctions, so near-term operating impact is limited but it dampens risk appetite.

2) WeChat officially opened its AI ecosystem developer access channel. Access is now open to third-party developers...