0803 ｜Dolphin Key Focus:

🐬 Macro / Sector

1. Listed automakers released Jul. production and sales updates, with a clear structural split in a seasonal lull. BYD led with 419k units, while Leapmotor became the first new EV maker to top 100k monthly sales. Exports remained the core growth driver as multiple OEMs saw a sharp rise in overseas volumes. Under pressured domestic demand, leading players sustained growth via broader product portfolios and intl channels, pushing share further toward top names and keeping the NEV export track buoyant.

🐬 Stocks

1.$Alibaba(BABA.US)

Alibaba officially rolled out Qwen 3.8-MAX adopting an MoE architecture, with 2.4 trillion total parameters and 95B activated, and will open-source weights next week. Separately, media reported Moonshot AI reached a compute agreement with Alibaba to access an Alibaba Cloud cluster of approx. 20,000 NVIDIA chips to train the Kimi model (not yet confirmed by either party). Alibaba is simultaneously commercializing foundation model products and monetizing compute externally, deepening ties with leading AI startups and reinforcing Alibaba Cloud’s compute moat. With compute scarcity, the incremental thesis for cloud remains intact.

2.$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)

As of 00:00 on Aug. 2, Xiaomi raised prices on several core smartphones: the Xiaomi 17 standard edition was up RMB 500 to RMB 4,799, while REDMI K90 and Turbo 5 all moved up RMB 300, marking the third price hike YTD. The increases stem from rising memory chip costs as three major memory vendors pivot advanced capacity to HBM, squeezing consumer-grade supply. Management previously estimated mobile memory prices could be nearly 4x vs. Q1 2025, with the 12+512GB configuration cost up ~RMB 1,500. Backed by long-term procurement agreements, Xiaomi’s pricing adjustments lag peers and remain relatively restrained.

3.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

TSMC is developing an advanced packaging solution to rival Intel’s EMIB, internally dubbed ‘EMIB-like’, according to media citing sources. With CoWoS capacity remaining tight, the new approach would broaden TSMC’s packaging lineup and address Intel’s competition. Advanced packaging has become the key bottleneck for AI chips, and TSMC’s diversified packaging roadmap aims to retain customers and ease CoWoS constraints. Competition is expanding from front-end process nodes to back-end packaging.

4.Luckin Coffee reports tonight, and Dolphin Research will track and publish an analysis.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Security & Alarm Services, Agricultural Machinery, Tobacco.

HK: Packaging, Heavy Electrical Equipment, Retailers.

U.S.: Marine ports operators, Retailers, Drug retailers.

🐬 Watchlist for Tomorrow

1. PLTR and Spotify to report earnings.

2. U.S. Jun trade balance (US$ bn), Jun factory orders MoM, Jun JOLTS job openings (10k).

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