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Rivian Automotive

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1113 ｜Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Trump signed a temporary federal government funding bill passed by both houses of Congress at the White House, ending the longest federal government shutdown in history that lasted 43 days. In the short term, it can restart federal services, issue back pay to employees, alleviate the impact on people's livelihood such as aviation delays and welfare interruptions, and resume the release of economic data to stabilize market expectations. However, the bill is only a temporary solution and does not address core differences such as healthcare subsidies and the remaining 9 annual appropriations, so there is still a risk of a shutdown after January 30...

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Alibaba's 'Qianwen' plans to revamp to catch up with ChatGPT; Baidu's Kunlun Chip Supernode unveiled | Today's Important News Recap

Rivian

Financial Analysis

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It is expected that the R2 model will achieve positive gross profit by the end of 2026.

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Rivian (3Q25 Minutes): Still Confident in Achieving the Goal of Halving R2 Costs

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Successfully climbed out of the second quarter loss mire

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Rivian: Narrowing Losses, R2 Mass Production Imminent, Is Rivian's Dawn Approaching?

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Rivian Quick Interpretation of Financial Report: Overall, Rivian delivered a decent third-quarter performance, with both revenue and net profit exceeding market expectations. Specifically: This quarter's total revenue was $1.56 billion, higher than the market expectation of $1.49 billion. The reasons for exceeding expectations are: ① The selling price per vehicle this quarter remained flat compared to the previous quarter, without further decline. This was mainly due to Rivian benefiting from the rush effect before the phase-out of the U.S. IRA subsidies in the third quarter, which temporarily stimulated demand without any price reduction on models; ② Software and service revenue continued to perform well, reaching $416 million this quarter, an increase of $40 million compared to the previous quarter. This was primarily due to the joint venture with Volkswagen contributing the majority of service revenue. What exceeded expectations even more was the gross margin this quarter, which turned positive again at 1.5%, improving by 16.4 percentage points from the previous quarter's low of -15.8%. The market had expected Rivian's gross margin this quarter to remain negative (-3.3%). Despite Rivian still being impacted by the decline in pure gross margin from carbon credit revenue (with almost no carbon credit recognition in the second half) and tariffs this quarter, the market did not have a very optimistic gross margin expectation even with Rivian's good vehicle sales performance. However, from the actual vehicle gross margin perspective, this quarter's vehicle gross margin was -13.5%, significantly improving from the previous quarter (-33.4%), mainly due to the reduction in per-unit amortized costs and some progress in Rivian's cost control. Looking at the guidance for the full year 2025, Rivian's annual sales guidance has been narrowed from 40,000-46,000 units to 41,500-43,500 units, mainly due to the negative impact of the IRA subsidy phase-out in the fourth quarter. The market is concerned that Rivian might further lower the adjusted EBITDA expectations, but Rivian has maintained the Adjusted EBITDA guidance of -$2.0 to -$2.25 billion, which is also better than market expectations. $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)

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In the third quarter, the Normal factory will shut down for 3 weeks to prepare for the mass production of R2.

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Rivian (2Q25 Minutes): Surviving 2025, Can R2 Stage Another 'Counterattack'?

Rivian: The Losses Deepen, Is It Another 'Dark Moment'?

Rivian 2Q25 Quick Interpretation: Overall, Rivian's performance this quarter has once again hit rock bottom.Although the market had low expectations for Rivian's financial report due to the negative impact of tariffs on production and the decline in regulatory credits, the actual performance was even worse than anticipated. On the revenue side, it slightly exceeded expectations, possibly due to the quarter-on-quarter growth in software revenue. However, in terms of the crucial gross margin, Rivian had previously narrated a story of continuous quarter-on-quarter improvement in gross margin (driven by factors such as the restructuring of the R1 production line, design adjustments, and renegotiation of the supply chain). Therefore, the positive gross margin in the previous two quarters gave the market some confidence. But this quarter, Rivian has once again fallen into a deep loss mode, with the overall gross margin plummeting by 32 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to -16%. In terms of bottom line net profit, this quarter's net profit declined by 570 million to -1.12 billion, which is 240 million more than the market expected. This also led to the adjusted EBITDA (approximately equal to cash burn rate) being 170 million worse than the market expected. The fundamental reasons for this loss remain: 1) A significant decline in production in the second quarter led to a substantial increase in per-vehicle amortized costs; 2) Carbon credits had virtually no revenue recognition this quarter, and this business is essentially pure gross profit, contributing nothing positive to the gross margin; 3) Tariff factors led to an increase in procurement costs, and there was also an inventory impairment recognized this quarter. In terms of key outlook, although Rivian reiterated its sales target of 40,000-46,000 vehicles, the IRA subsidy will phase out by the end of the third quarter, so the critical sprint stage and window period for achieving the annual sales target is actually in the third quarter (before the subsidy phase-out). However, Rivian will continue to halt production at the Normal plant for three weeks in the third quarter to prepare for the launch of the R2, which may prevent it from producing enough vehicles to meet the rush orders during the window period. Therefore, Dolphin Research anticipates that there will be significant pressure to meet this year's sales target. From Rivian's current valuation perspective, the 2025 P/S ratio is close to 3 times. Although Dolphin Research understands that such a valuation is still primarily supported by high growth expectations brought by the production of the cheaper R2 model next year. However, given the unfavorable fundamentals for Rivian in the second half of this year, Dolphin Research believes that such a valuation is still too high, and the poor performance this time is expected to lead to a correction. $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)

$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) released its Q1 2025 earnings report after the U.S. market closed on May 6, 2025. Key takeaways: 1) Strong Q1 performance with revenue beating expectations: Total revenue reached $1.24 billion, significantly surpassing market expectations of around $1 billion, with a $250 million positive surprise. The beat was driven by both automotive revenue (exceeding expectations by $160 million) and software service revenue (exceeding by $100 million). 2) Gross margin reached low double-digit levels...

RIVIAN: Surviving 2025, Can the R2 Achieve a 'Comeback Against All Odds'?

Rivian's performance this quarter was good, but the overall guidance for 2025 is terrible, and it continues to lower delivery expectations. Dolphin Research believes the market is most concerned about the 2025 outlook, especially under the impact of tariffs.First, let's talk about this quarter's performance: Rivian exceeded market expectations in both revenue and gross margin. The market originally expected Rivian to have a negative double-digit gross margin in Q1, but surprisingly, Rivian achieved a positive double-digit margin. Dolphin Research believes this is mainly due to:① The actual gross margin from car sales continues to improve, although it remains in negative double digits, there is clear marginal improvement.② The contribution from the Volkswagen partnership to software and service businesses, with the software business gross margin reaching 36%! Essentially, Volkswagen's technology service fees are pure profit for Rivian.However, the key lies in the guidance. With the R2 not yet launched, 2025 will be a tough year for Rivian with few upward catalysts for its stock price. Management's guidance for Rivian in 2025 is particularly crucial, especially under the current tariff impact.For the overall delivery guidance, management has further lowered it by 5,000 units to 40,000-46,000 units (2024 deliveries are still at 52,000 units). The tariff impact remains significant for Rivian:① Increased procurement costs: Although Rivian's supply chain appears to be in the U.S., its most critical component—batteries—are sourced from China's Gotion High-Tech (LFP batteries) and South Korea's Samsung. Higher tariffs will increase Rivian's procurement costs. The quantified impact on COGS will depend on management's comments during the earnings call.② Increased Capex investment: Like Tesla, the tariff impact has led Rivian to raise capital expenditures by another $100 million, accelerating cash burn.For more details, stay tuned for Dolphin Research's full analysis.$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)

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