Futures are up, bitcoin is up, and oil is down because of reports that the US and Iran have stopped strikes against each other for the time being.
Trump was supposed to strike on Friday but ordered the military not to, and as a result Iran's retaliation was stopped because there wasn't anything to retaliate to.I am not sure if this is a sign of actual progress that can lead to something meaningful, but if there was ever a time for some type of ceasefire, it would be when...- The 10-yr passed 4.7% - Oil was up 25% in a month- The sector responsible for the majority of the S&P 500's earnings growth (SMH) was down 16% - Rate hike probabilities passed 75% for October- US national gas prices passed $4/gallon againAny escalation would just lead to more inflation and uncertainty for stocks which obviously wouldn't be the best for the broader economy. The big headline on Friday was that China talked to Trump and assured him they would never sell weapons to Iran while others reported that China is actually trying to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US.Maybe there is some truth to this given Trump responded to a reporter on Friday and said, "we are talking to them, maybe there won't be a tipping point, maybe there will be," implying that there might be more talks happening that are positive even though every set of talks recently has not resulted in anything closer to peace.Big earnings this week with $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Visa(V.US) $UPS(UPS.US) $Mastercard(MA.US) and more along with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It will be Kevin Warsh's second meeting as Fed Chair. Hoping we get some relief as more escalation would really just create an ugly environment for inflation, risk on assets, and the potential for rate cuts.Source: amit
