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AI GossipAug 4 at 08:26 PM

Prices for the production of older chips (mature processes) will rise even higher next year than this amid strong AI-related demand, media report, citing Taiwan chip foundries. Vanguard (VIS) said 2027 prices will outpace this year due to AI, and UMC and Powerchip (PSMC) both said they too would continue raising prices. VIS Chairman Leuh Fang said AI is driving strong demand for power management chips (PMICs) and discretes, and the shortage will run into 2027. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #VIS #PSMC #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

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Equity researchJul 12 at 06:26 PM

BofA: TSMC

2Q26 & 3Q26 Financial Expectations

> 2Q26 Performance: Sales are tracking to +12% QoQ (the top end of guidance), supported by robust high-performance computing (HPC) and AI demand. A Vanguard (VIS) disposal gain is expected to boost 2Q26 EPS by NT$1.95.

> 3Q26 Growth: Sales are projected to increase by 11–15% QoQ due to upcoming Apple chipset builds and full implementation of early-2026 price hikes.

> Gross Margins (GMs): Expected to remain stable at 67–68% in 3Q26. While strong utilization and pricing help, they are temporarily offset by higher summer electricity costs and a 2–3% margin dilution from the 2nm node ramp.

Capital Expenditure (Capex) Strategy

> 2026 Capex: Expected to reach US$58bn (outperforming TSMC's official US$56bn guidance) due to tight equipment supply and advanced packaging needs.

> Future Capex Expansion: Projected to swell further to US$78bn in 2027 and US$83bn in 2028 to fund advanced clean room installations and international expansions (e.g., Arizona and Kumamoto).

> Depreciation Management: Despite aggressive capex, depreciation is estimated to grow at a manageable 17% CAGR from 2026–28, allowing GMs to expand toward 68% by 2028.

Technology Leadership & Market Position

> Node Superiority: TSMC continues to widen its specs gap against rivals. Its transistor density outperforms Intel 3/18A nodes by ~30%, and the gap is projected to expand to 50–60% with the upcoming A16/A12 nodes compared to Intel 18A-P/14A.

> The 2nm Profile: The N2 (2nm) node has reached target defect density levels two quarters ahead of the 3nm timeline. It is expected to yield a better long-term margin profile than 3nm.

> Advanced Packaging (CoWoS & SoIC): Industry CoWoS supply is expected to grow at a 52% CAGR (2026–28). TSMC is expanding CoWoS capacity from 120k WPM (4Q26) to 180k WPM (4Q27). Concurrently, its SoIC capacity is projected to grow from 20k WPM (4Q26) to 50k WPM by 4Q28, potentially contributing 1% of total corporate sales by 2028.

CoWoS Advanced Packaging Supply & Demand

> High Utilization Sustained: Industry CoWoS-R/L wafer demand and capacity are projected to scale dramatically from under 100k wafers per quarter (WPQ) in late 2024 to over 850k WPQ by 4Q28. Utilization is expected to remain tightly constrained at high levels, hovering near or above 90% through 2028.

> Nvidia & Hyper-scalers Dominate: Total CoWoS demand is structurally anchored by Nvidia (both CoWoS-R/L and CoWoS-S variants), followed by major growth from Google (CoWoS-R/L and CoWoS-S) and AMD.

> Growth Velocity: While YoY demand growth peaked dramatically in 2022 and 2024 (at 180% and over 200% respectively), absolute volume growth is accelerating rapidly through 2028, even as the YoY growth percentage decelerates toward 30-40%.

TSMC SoIC Supply/Demand Trends

> Capacity Multi-Year Roadmap: TSMC's SoIC capacity is projected to hit 20k wafers per month (WPM) by 4Q26 and scale up to 35k WPM by 4Q27. The chart forecasts wafer supply capacity eventually topping 150k WPQ by late 2028.

> Utilization Profile (Ex-CPO): Excluding Co-Packaged Optics (CPO), SoIC utilization saw a major spike in mid-2026 (approaching 100%). Moving forward, utilization is expected to stabilize in a healthy 40% to 60% range through 2028 as aggressive new capacity comes online to meet structural demand.

Advanced Node Structural Demand Mix

> Server CPU Outperformance: Wafer demand for Server CPUs is outgrowing overall major advanced chipsets. By 2028, Server CPUs are projected to account for 13% of TSMC’s major 5nm and below wafer demand mix.

> Shifting Allocation: While Mobile SoCs remain the single largest chunk of 5nm and below demand, their structural share is gradually compressing as AI Accelerators (both GPU and ASIC formats) and Server CPUs command a significantly larger portion of the advanced wafer mix starting in 2026.

3nm Customer Consumption & The 2nm Transition

> Apple's Horizon Shift: Apple dominates the lion's share of 3nm wafer consumption from late 2023 through mid-2026. However, its 3nm consumption is modeled to shrink drastically starting in late 2026/2027 as Apple migrates its high-volume product lines to the 2nm node.

> Next-Wave 3nm Anchors: Following Apple’s migration, MediaTek and Qualcomm are projected to step in and remain the largest individual consumers of TSMC's 3nm capacity, supplemented by substantial data center blocks from Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom ASICs through late 2027.

$TSMC

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AI GossipMay 27 at 07:57 PM

UMC and Intel will have their jointly developed 12nm FinFET process in mass production in 2027 at Intel Arizona, media report, adding UMC sees a stronger 2nd half 2026 via price hikes on some processes, new orders, due to rising materials costs, while 2027 is likely to see price hikes across the board. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $Intel(INTC.US) #VIS #PSMC #HuaHong #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipMay 5 at 04:27 AM

Vanguard (VIS) is evaluating building a 2nd 12-inch fab since existing capacity has already been fully booked by clients, but first must confirm with clients, media report, noting the TSMC affiliate’s plan for production at its VSMC JV fab in Singapore has also changed. VSMC will produce more silicon interposer to support TSMC’s advanced packaging, with some equipment provided by TSMC. VSMC’s fab capacity plan has been reduced to 44,000 wafers per month from 55,000, and investment amount dropped to US$6.7 billion from $7.8B. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NXP Semiconductors(NXPI.US) #Vanguard #VIS #semiconductors #semiconductor

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipApr 8 at 12:47 AM

Price hikes on chips made on mature production lines may hit again after April 1 increases went into effect, media report, with China’s Nexchip said to have notified clients of a planned June 1 hike, and talk that Taiwan giant UMC and rival Vanguard (VIS) may follow suit. Chip makers are facing higher costs across the supply chain, and have raised prices to keep up. The report notes foreign institutional investors sold UMC shares for 6-days straight due to weak consumer electronics demand, which is expected to hurt chips. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #VIS #Nexchip #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipMar 29 at 08:17 PM

Samsung Foundry has notified clients that a strike would disrupt chip shipment schedules, giving them time to stock inventory and seek new suppliers, media report, noting power management (PMIC) and display drivers (DDIC) are most at risk because they require older production processes that are already in high demand. (Note: Samsung Electronics’ unions voted to strike May 21, but negotiations remain ongoing) #Samsung #PSMC #VIS #semiconductors #semiconductor

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipMar 15 at 07:47 PM

Chip foundries that make mature node chips will raise prices 10% or more amid rising costs, tighter supply, media report, adding China’s Nexchip and Taiwan’s Vanguard (VIS), have already notified clients they will hike prices across all processes in the 2nd quarter (Nexchip 6/1, VIS 4/1). Taiwan’s Powerchip said it has already raised prices in Q1, while UMC declined comment. Costs, including equipment, materials, labor, electricity have all increased, while the oversupply is over. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) $Intel(INTC.US) #SMIC #HuaHong #Powerchip #Nexchip

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipMar 4 at 07:07 PM

Chip foundries are hiking legacy node prices, and chip designers are passing the costs on to their clients: China image sensor chip maker SmartSens notified clients it is raising prices to offset increased costs, as manufacturing partner Samsung hiked prices 20%, and Nexchip 10%, media report, media report, adding Taiwan chip designers Elan and Fitipower recently said they are monitoring rising foundry costs and may have to hike prices as well. Display driver chip and power chip (DDIC, PMIC) makers have said they are also facing foundry cost pressures. The CMOS image sensor market, in particular, has been in an extended downturn the past few years, so a SmartSens price hike may signal the market is stabilizing. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #Samsung #Nexchip #PSMC #VIS #Vanguard #SMICY #HuaHong #Hejian #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipMar 2 at 06:27 PM

The US-Iran conflict has disrupted semiconductor shipments from Israel’s Tower Semi, prompting clients to shift orders to Taiwan’s Vanguard (VIS) and Powerchip (PSMC), media report. Affected chips include power (PMICs), CIS sensors, RF, MEMS, and analog signal chips, by a range of companies, including Broadcom, Onsemi, Vishay, others. $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Broadcom(AVGO.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $Skyworks Solutions(SWKS.US) $ON Semiconductor(ON.US) $Vishay Intertech(VSH.US) #Samsung #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipFeb 3 at 06:37 PM

TSMC affiliate Vanguard (VIS) sees 2026 capex at NT$60-NT$70 billion (US$1.9B-$2.2B) and 1st quarter production line utilization at 80%-85% as demand for chips made using legacy processes surges for server and power chips (PMIC), media report. Last year, VIS spent NT$64B on capex. Most of this year’s spending will be to ramp its Singapore JV fab with NXP Semi to mass production. VIS’s 2025 utilization rate was 74% up from 63% in 2024. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NXP Semiconductors(NXPI.US) #VIS $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $ASML(ASML.US) #semiconductors #Singapore

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipJan 26 at 08:11 PM

The AI data center shift to High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) is causing chip foundry prices for legacy 8-inch wafer production to increase, with Taiwan’s Vanguard (VIS) hiking 4%-8% for some chips, amid strong demand for High-Voltage power components, media report, and a 2nd hike is possible. 1/2 $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $SMICY #HuaHong #Semicondutors #HVDC

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipJan 25 at 06:01 PM

Chip foundries that sell production on 8-inch wafers plan to raise prices 5%-20% amid rising AI-related demand for power management (PMIC) chips and early stockpiling by consumer electronics firms already smarting from the spike in memory chip prices, media report, adding efforts by giants TSMC and Samsung to reduce 8-inch production has added to pricing pressure. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $SSNLF #Samsung #VIS

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipJan 15 at 07:43 PM

The chairman of chip foundry Vanguard (VIS), an affiliate of TSMC, said demand for semiconductors will see explosive growth in 2026 and continue to lead the global technology industry as the AI data center boom continues for years to come, media report, adding demand for mature process chips like VIS makes will remain equally strong. VIS has invested heavily in production capacity for power management (PMIC) and discrete components. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #VIS #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipJan 13 at 07:33 PM

UMC, Vanguard (VIS) and other chip foundries are poised to raise prices 5%-20% for mature 8-inch wafer production due to strong AI-related demand for power management chips (PMICs) and as giants TSMC and Samsung reduce 8-inch output to use cleanroom capacity for more advanced chip manufacturing, media report, citing unnamed analysts and market researcher TrendForce. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) $SSNLF #VIS #Samsung

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipJan 8 at 07:18 PM

Rumor: TSMC is moving old production lines to affiliate Vanguard International (VIS)’s Singapore fab to make room for additional CoWoS advanced packaging capacity, media report, particularly CoW (Chip-on-Wafer). $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) #Semiconductors #Vanguard

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipDec 29, 2025 at 07:18 PM

The US delay on fresh China semiconductor tariffs – possibly to June, 2027 – will not affect the long-term trend of moving chip supply chains out of the Communist giant, media report. Taiwan makers of mature-node chips, UMC, VIS, Powerchip, will benefit from orders transferred from China chip foundries, while Taiwan’s chip packaging industry, 1st in the world in revenue, 2nd in volume, is also capitalizing on order shifts, via ASE, Powertech, KYEC, others. $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US) $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #KYEC #Powertech #VIS

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipOct 26, 2025 at 08:01 PM

Chip foundries that do mature/legacy logic chips like UMC, Vanguard, Powerchip face falling prices in 2026 and are working to offset the impact by asking suppliers to slash their prices (UMC has asked for 15% price reductions), seeking long term contracts with clients, doing more specialty processes and value-added services that are difficult to mimic, media report. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #VIS #Powerchip

Source: Dan Nystedt

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AI GossipMar 24, 2025 at 09:02 PM

Vanguard International (VIS) is winning orders as firms shift semiconductor supply chains from China, media report, amid a U.S. Section 301 probe into China’s industry dominance launched last December. Taiwan’s UMC and Powerchip are also seeing similar gains. $United Microelectronics(UMC.US) #VIS #PSMC #Powerchip #semiconductors #semiconductor https://t.co/WwEdvQKVDB

Source: Dan Nystedt

https://t.co/WwEdvQKVDBSource

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