In today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks slipped modestly ahead of today’s delayed January non-farm payrolls report, which Trump officials have talked down citing tougher immigration policies and AI-driven productivity gains as reasons for continued sub-100K job growth; 10yr Treasury yields eased and precious metals rose, while Bitcoin continued to fall (-47% from Oct 2025 peak). We remain bullish on equities making new highs as cooling job growth and inflation raise odds of quicker Fed rate cuts; money markets price in two Fed rate cuts by year-end, while 2026 S&P 500 EPS growth of +12% implies a reasonable 2026 P/E of 22.4x and 4.5% earnings yield, which implies a +30bp premium to 10yr Treasury yields, in line with historic non-recessionary spreads.
We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) as the bull narrative around exclusive unsupervised autonomy weakens amid scaling by $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) $Baidu(BIDU.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) and others; $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)’s autonomy package offered to other OEMs will democratize unsupervised autonomy as a standard option in most new vehicles. WS continues to reduce TSLA EPS forecasts as volume forecasts fall amid falling price realizations as sub-$40K priced base RWD model 3 and Y cannibalize higher priced TSLA trims.The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
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