Gary Black Tracker
2026.02.18 11:07

In today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks rose as sentiment improved after yesterday’s volatile session, with traders awaiting today’s release of minutes from the Jan 27-28 Fed meeting for clues in the Fed’s forward rate path. 10yr Treasury yields rose and precious metals recovered. We continue to expect equities to reach new highs as cooling inflation and slowing employment growth raise the odds of earlier Fed rate cuts, with money markets pricing in two cuts by year-end. We see stocks as neither under- or over-valued: 2026 S&P 500 EPS growth of +12% implies a forward P/E of 22.1x (4.5% earnings yield) and a ~50bp premium to 10-year Treasuries, consistent with historical non-recessionary norms. We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) as the bull case for TSLA being the only one to solve for general unsupervised autonomy continues to weaken with $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US), $Baidu(BIDU.US), $WeRide(WRD.US), $Pony AI(PONY.US), and $Amazon(AMZN.US) completing 750K paid unsupervised rides per week, and $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) about to offer its full autonomy stack to OEMs starting 1H 2026, which we believe will democratize unsupervised autonomy.

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