Gary Black Tracker
2026.03.10 21:07

$Aerovironment(AVAV.US) (long position) down -9% AH after reducing 2026 guidance and reporting that the U.S. Space Force and AVAV were unable to come to terms to modify the existing contract for the BADGER ground antenna system, which had been paused. The U.S. Space Force has concluded to terminate AVAV’s existing contract but allow AVAV to compete for the program with the revised requirements. The company took a $151M non-cash charge triggered by the loss of this govt contract. Significantly, the company’s funded backlog of $1.1B and unfunded backlog of $3.0B will be reduced by the $1.5B unfunded govt contract now terminated.

3Q results:

- Rev $408M vs $480M est

- Gross margin 24.0% vs 25.7% est

- EBITDA $44.5M vs $63.2M

- EPS $.64 vs $.61

FY’2026 guidance:

- Rev $1.85-$1.95 est vs $1.97B est

- EBITDA $265-$285M vs $298.4M est

- EPS $2.75-$3.10 vs $3.31 est

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