Gary Black Tracker
2026.04.01 11:37

Highlights from today’s pre-mkt summary for Subscribers: Stocks extended yesterday’s big gains after President Trump signaled the US-Iran conflict could end in 2-3 weeks, noting America had largely met its military goals and would leave the job of opening the Strait of Hormuz to other nations. Brent crude extended yesterday’s decline to $102/bbl. 10yr yields fell to 4.27% in front of today’s ADP March private payrolls (+40K est). Gold rose, silver fell, and BTC inched higher. $Tesla(TSLA.US) rose in front of tomorrow’s 1Q deliveries (consensus 366K, my est 377K +12% YoY reflecting higher energy prices and an easy compare vs last year’s Model Y Juniper transition). We expect equities to hit new highs once the Iran conflict ends, oil retreats, and slowing jobs accelerate Fed rate cuts. 2026 S&P earnings estimates rose to $323 (+17% YoY vs 2025’s $276) on higher profits for AI data centers and energy, implying 20.2x P/E (4.9% yield, +60bp premium to 10yr TY, within historical norms). We remain cautious on $Tesla(TSLA.US) due to declining 2026-30 estimates and rising unsupervised autonomy competition from $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)/ $Baidu(BIDU.US)/ $WeRide(WRD.US)/ $Pony AI(PONY.US)/ $Amazon(AMZN.US) (900K paid rides/week) plus NVDA’s open AI stack in 2026; no position (2026 P/E ~185x, 5x PEG).

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