☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — TSMC Beats, But Chips Bleed

TSMC crushed its quarter and raised its outlook, yet the whole chip complex got dumped anyway, because it also jacked up how much it plans to spend. Memory took the worst of it (SK Hynix -13%, SanDisk -12%, Micron -5%), Alphabet shed about $200B on a Gemini delay, and SpaceX closed below its IPO price for the first time ever. Let's dig in 👇

📊 Quick Recap — What Moved & Why

🇺🇸 US — TSMC Beats, But Chips Bleed

🔑 Key Event: A chip-led selloff dragged the indices lower. 📈 S&P 500 -0.51% to 7,533, Nasdaq -1.47% to 25,882, Dow -0.20% to 52,553. TSMC posted a blowout Q2 and lifted its full-year outlook, but by raising 2026 capex to $60-64B (from $52-56B) it reset the market's free-cash-flow math and sent the entire semi complex lower. Money rotated toward regional banks and out of high-multiple tech.

👀 Other to Watch

• Memory wrecked → SK Hynix (SKHY) ADRs -13%, SanDisk (SNDK) -12%, Micron (MU) -5%; the PHLX semiconductor index fell 2.6%, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom all off 2-3%.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) -4.4% → shed roughly $200B in market cap after a Bloomberg report that Gemini 3.5 Pro, its most powerful AI model, is months behind schedule on disappointing coding results.
• Netflix (NFLX) -8% → Q2 revenue $12.6B and EPS $0.80 came in roughly in line, but soft Q3 revenue guidance (~$12.86B) disappointed and shares slid after hours.
• SpaceX (SPCX) -3% → closed at $131.11, its first-ever close below the $135 IPO price, after scrubbing a Starship test flight when engines failed to start; shares dropped to ~$124 after hours.

@NewUser_zS0M8w : "Alphabet is trying to turn its in-house AI chips (TPUs) into a business line that serves other companies, renting out that same chip power it built to run its own models faster and cheaper."

🇸🇬 Singapore — STI Slips as Chips Drag

🔑 Key Event:STI closed -0.69% at 5,521, snapping its winning streak as the regional chip selloff spilled over, though the big-three banks held near record highs (DBS crossed S$70 for the first time earlier this month). June NODX trade data lands today, the next test of whether the AI-electronics export boom that drove Q2 GDP +5.7% is still running.

👀 Other to Watch

• SIA Engineering (S59) → signed a non-binding MOU with Air India to explore MRO (maintenance, repair and overhaul) collaboration.
• Tourism → Q1 tourism receipts hit S$8.55B (+5.78% YoY), with China the largest source at S$1.35B; entertainment and gaming spend led the growth at +22.8%.

@NoTimeCountMoney : "SingTel (Z74) anchors the portfolio solidly, and the defensive setup continues to hold its own nicely even as we see clear divergence in sector momentum."

🇭🇰 HK/China — Alibaba Powers Apple's China AI

🔑 Key Event:HSI +1.33% to 25,008, reclaiming 25,000, led by a jump in Alibaba and Baidu after China's cyberspace regulator approved Apple Intelligence to run on homegrown models, with Alibaba's Qwen as the core engine for iPhones in mainland China. Alibaba hit a one-month high.

👀 Other to Watch

• 🇨🇳 TSMC (TSM) → Q2 revenue $40.2B (+33.7%) and gross margin 67.7% both beat, but the raised capex outlook (plus an extra $100B for Arizona) is what set off the global chip selloff.

@Fattycat : "Alibaba's homegrown Qwen is now built directly into Apple Intelligence for mainland China. This localisation strategy makes Qwen the core power behind Apple's AI for a hundred-million-plus user base."

🌍 Other

• 🥇 Gold → slid back toward $4,000 (-0.7% on the day) as a hawkish Fed and surging oil revived rate-hike fears; traders now price roughly even odds (~50%) of a September hike.
• 🛢️ Oil & Iran → crude jumped as the US carried out a fifth straight day of strikes on Iranian targets, with Trump vowing to keep going until attacks on shipping stop.
• 🏛️ Fed → several officials struck a hawkish tone this week, warning inflation is still running above target and signaling they would hike again if it doesn't cool.

📅 Key Events Tonight / This Week

• 🇸🇬 June NODX trade data · today (Fri Jul 17)

💬 TSMC just beat big and raised its outlook, yet the whole chip complex sold off because it plans to spend more to meet demand. Is the market right to punish that capex, or is this the dip to buy in the AI winners?

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🚫 No duplicates · ⏰ Deadline: July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM SGT

Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏