SpaceX One Month On: The Float Is the Whole Story
SpaceX listed on June 12 at USD 135, raising USD 85.7 billion in the largest IPO on record. A month later the stock has round tripped the entire post IPO pop and trades around USD 131, roughly 23% below where the excitement peaked.
Why the swings are this violent
The number most retail investors miss is the float. Only about 4% of shares are actually trading. When that little stock is available, both the melt up to USD 200 and the slide back below the IPO price make sense. Thin float plus a retail favourite plus Elon headlines equals a volatility machine.
The Starship overhang
The catalyst everyone was waiting for did not go to plan. The Starship test flight on July 16 was scrubbed after some engines failed to start and triggered an automatic abort. Musk said two Raptor engines would be swapped out, with a relaunch likely early the following week. So the binary event that could reset sentiment is still ahead of us, not behind.
How to think about it
This is not a stock you value on a spreadsheet yet. It trades on narrative and on the next Starship result. If you are buying near the IPO price you are betting the float stays tight and the next launch succeeds. That is a real bet, just be honest that it is a bet on execution and on Elon, not on current fundamentals.
Not investment advice.
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