🚀 Earnings Season Challenge #3: SpaceX Reports Tuesday — Beat or Miss?

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) posts its first-ever quarterly results as a listed company after the US close on Tuesday, 4 August. Two days later, on Thursday, 6 August, its IPO lock-up expires. For a stock that has already halved since June, that is an unusually loaded week. 🔥🔥🔥

So we are running this week's Earnings Challenge differently. Instead of picking a winner from a basket, you are calling the number: How will SPCX move on the first trading day after the results?

🎁 Vote the Range, Name the Price — Up to 2,888 Task Coins

Two ways to join. The vote takes one tap. The comment is where the big rewards are.

1️⃣ Vote the range — 388 Task Coins

You are calling $SpaceX(SPCX.US)'s percentage change on Wednesday, 5 August — the first full trading day after the results — measured from Tuesday's US close to Wednesday's US close.

Each range excludes its lower bound and includes its upper bound. Example: −4.0% falls in "Down 3% to 10%"; exactly −10.0% also falls in "Down 3% to 10%".

🎁 Pick the correct range → 388 Task Coins.

2️⃣ Name your price — up to 2,888 Task Coins

Drop your predicted $SpaceX(SPCX.US) closing price on Wednesday, 5 August in the comments, and tell us why.

🏆 The three members closest to the actual close take the top rewards:

🥇 Closest — 2,888 Task Coins
🥈 Second closest — 1,888 Task Coins
🥉 Third closest — 888 Task Coins

🎁 And because we would rather read your thinking than just your number: add 10 words or more explaining your call and earn 288 Task Coins — yours to keep whether or not the number lands.

⏰ Entries close: Tuesday, 4 August, 23:59 SGT — before SpaceX reports. The numbers land around 04:30 SGT on Wednesday.

📊 Settled on: Wednesday 5 August's US closing price, as shown on Longbridge.

📉 Where SPCX Stands Today

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) listed on the Nasdaq on 12 June 2026, raising US$85.7 billion — the largest IPO on record. Four trading days later it peaked at US$225.64. It has been falling more or less ever since.

📍 Last close (Fri, 31 July): US$108.37, −3.41% on the day

📍 From the 16 June peak: about −52% · From the US$135 IPO price: about −20%

📍 Fifth consecutive weekly decline, with a 52-week low of US$107.01 set on 28 July

📍 Friday's intraday range: US$107.57–113.64 — a 5.4% swing in a single session, on US$6.4 billion of turnover

Across 34 analysts tracked on Longbridge, the average 12-month target sits at US$236.71, roughly double the current price, with about 79% at Buy or Strong Buy and one Sell. Morgan Stanley is at US$300. Either the market is badly mispricing a monopoly-like launch and satellite broadband business, or the analysts are anchored to a valuation the fundamentals have not yet earned. Tuesday is the first time we get real numbers to argue with.

💬 One Last Thing

$SpaceX(SPCX.US) has been the most-watched name in this community for weeks, and almost nobody agrees on it. Down 52% with the sell-side at double the price is not a normal setup — it is the kind of gap that closes hard in one direction or the other.

You have until Tuesday night. Where do you think it lands? 👇

ℹ️ Rules & Settlement
Reference prices: official US closing prices for Tue 4 Aug and Wed 5 Aug, as shown on Longbridge.
Ties on the price target are broken by the earlier comment timestamp.
One vote and one comment per member. Your first comment is the one that counts, so take your time with it.
Rewards are credited within 7 working days after settlement.
Content must be original and relevant. Copied, duplicate, spam or directly AI-generated submissions may be disqualified.

For community discussion only. Not investment advice.