Jackson Hole: 10 AM ET – Warsh's Words Could Move Markets.

PCE at 3.7% beat expectations unexpectedly, pushing the probability of no rate hike in September from 35% to 66%. Since Walsh took office, forward guidance has been scrapped and the dot plot abolished.

Walsh's debut at Jackson Hole—the market faces a Fed Chair who offers "no compass" for the first time.

While we cannot predict this Friday's market movement, Jackson Hole (the global central bank annual meeting) has historically been associated with local peaks in high market volatility, as Wall Street rapidly reassesses policy prospects after the Fed Chair's speech.

Over the past twenty years during the Jackson Hole meetings, the average daily absolute volatility of the S&P 500 index after Fed speeches was 1.03%, compared to an average of 0.63% on other trading days in August.

Although the index closed positive in 70% of cases on such days, downside moves can be sharper when the market reacts poorly. A new Chair's Jackson Hole debut is never a formality—in 2022, Powell's single sentence caused the S&P 500 to crash 3.37%.

Transmission Chain:
Walsh's stance
→ US Treasury yields
→ US stock AI hardware valuations, ex-US sectors: gold, FX, crypto markets, South Korea, Chinese concept stocks
→ Philadelphia Semiconductor, software, pharma...

10 AM ET, watch the screen closely！

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