【Market Predict & Win】Fed Night: Hike has finally come?

At 2:00am SGT tonight, the US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years by 25 bp, to the 3.75%–4.00% range.

For the past two years, the question was “when do rates finally come down”. Tonight, the Fed is expected to answer in the opposite direction. And the Fed doesn't just announce one number, it also reveals forecast of where rates go from here.

So, tonight reaches your T-bill and fixed deposit rollovers, the SORA that most Singapore home loans are now priced off, every S-REIT on the board, the three local banks, and whatever USD you're sitting on. Keep reading, and rewards awaits. 🎁

📖 Three Decisions at 2am

🎤 A Speech Even More Important

At 2:30am, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes questions, and how Warsh explains the inflation matters:

If Warsh leans on oil, he's effectively calling this a supply shock — which is a softer, more dovish position, because rate hikes don't produce more barrels.

If he frames it as broad price pressure, that's harder. The hike matters less than the reasoning behind it.

🤔 Will the 2018 scenario repeat itself?

🎯 How to play

Three questions. One comment. Six characters.

Q1 — The Rate decision? (Now: 3.50%–3.75%)

A Hold, no change B Hike 25bp, to 3.75%–4.00% C Hike 50bp or more

Q2 — How many dissenting votes? (July: 3 dissents)

A 0–2 B Exactly 3 C 4 or more

Q3 — In tonight's dot plot, how many officials want at least one more hike in 2026? (June: 9 of 18 saw a hike this year)

A 0–6 B 7–11 C 12 or more

👉 Drop your three calls in the comments like this: 1B 2B 3B

🏆 Participation Rewards

• Call all three right → you split a 10,000 task coin prize pool. 💰
• Add your anlysis → tell us this (20+ words): what's your plan about the hike — and what would change your mind? The best takes split 5 SGD stock cash coupons. 🎁
• No right answer. We're reading the thinking, not the conclusion.

⏰ Calls lock at 11:59pm SGT tonight — before the decision.

✏️ Original and relevant only — copied, duplicate or directly AI-generated entries may be disqualified.

⏭ Up next

Thursday the Bank of England. Friday the Bank of Japan — and Quadruple Witching, when quarterly options, futures and index options all expire together. Three central banks and an expiry in four days. Whatever happens at 2am, it isn't finished on Thursday morning.

Not investment advice, just market talk 🙏