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Oil prices are staying elevated, and it feels like the market has already made the rate decision for Warsh. If his own framework is truly market-driven, he’ll eventually have to respond to what’s already being priced in. The interesting part is that employment remains surprisingly resilient, which could pull other Fed officials back toward a more hawkish stance.

I’m actually leaning the other way on Warsh himself. He’s repeatedly argued for looking beyond traditional inflation gauges and even proposed alternative ways to measure underlying inflation. If that remains his focus, there’s still room for a more dovish tone than the market currently expects.