Tonc

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)Nvidia has also lost its ability to generate meaningful alpha. If you’ve held it over the past year, your returns might be close to zero. Still, that’s arguably better than holding small-cap stocks that have been completely crushed.

It’s becoming harder to find stocks that can consistently outperform the market. Even the biggest AI winner is no longer delivering the kind of excess returns investors once expected. In this environment, simply avoiding the biggest losers might be an achievement in itself.

@Captain's Treasure

$AMD(AMD.US)delivered a solid earnings report, but its gains have completely evaporated from the overnight session to now. To me, this suggests the market may be starting to rotate away from hardware and toward software, while increasingly questioning whether hardware earnings growth has peaked.

$Intel(INTC.US)is caught in an even tougher position. With the US government‘s involvement and Trump’s public support for the company, Intel has become something of a political showcase. That may bring strategic support, but it doesn‘t necessarily translate into better market sentiment. The stock seems to be getting punished disproportionately as investors lose patience with the hardware trade.

The bigger question now is whether this is just a sector rotation or the beginning of a much longer reset in AI hardware valuations.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)Apple kept pushing to new highs, largely benefiting from the market’s flight to safety. But earnings have finally exposed the problem: it’s getting increasingly difficult for the business to deliver results strong enough to justify the expectations baked into the current share price.

The stock has been rewarded for its defensive qualities, but that doesn‘t mean its valuation can keep expanding forever. At this level, simply delivering decent results may no longer be enough.

Sometimes being the market’s safe haven also means having very little room left for disappointment.

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$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ printed a high-volume weekly shooting star last week, with a strong rally followed by a sharp reversal. That’s not exactly an encouraging signal.

It feels like the market is finally starting to punish the massive spending expansion and rising debt levels across the AI industry. So far, the promised killer app still seems nowhere close, while the spending keeps piling up.

At this point, it may take some meaningful macro tailwinds to turn sentiment around. The AI story is still alive, but the market is getting increasingly impatient about when all that spending will actually translate into returns.

For now, I’m more cautious about chasing the dip. The next rally probably needs more than another round of AI promises.

@Captain's Treasure

$Intel(INTC.US)INTC just reminded me how brutal the US stock market can be. I was still wondering when it might fill the gap from earlier this year, but this latest selloff completely smashed through my expectations.

Even after such an aggressive drop, I think it’s time to start my DCA around 60. I may not catch the bottom, but I’d rather start building a position gradually than keep waiting for the perfect entry.

Sometimes the market doesn‘t give you a chance to prepare for the downside. The important thing now is to stay disciplined and avoid getting carried away by the volatility.

@Captain's Treasure

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)GOOGL’s sharp post-earnings drop toward the lower monthly band wasn’t entirely surprising. The AI model race is getting increasingly expensive, and the fight for market share could put further pressure on cash flow.

Meanwhile, APP’s sharp selloff is a reminder that the market is becoming increasingly worried about how AI could disrupt existing digital advertising business models. If AI starts changing how ads are delivered, targeted, and monetized, Google may not be immune either.

I’m still interested in GOOGL, but I’m sticking to my plan of starting to accumulate around 250. At the current price, I’d rather wait for a more attractive entry than rush to buy the dip.

@Captain's Treasure

$Robinhood(HOOD.US)HOOD sold off sharply after earnings. Revenue growth was solid, but profits came in below expectations, and the market clearly wasn’t willing to overlook that.

This stock rarely trades like a conventional brokerage. Sentiment swings can be extreme, and declining crypto trading volumes are another headwind for transaction revenue.

Interestingly, if interest rate pressure starts to ease, this pullback could create a better opportunity to rebuild a position. The key is whether earnings pressure proves temporary and trading activity picks up again.

HOOD can move fast in both directions, so I’d rather see some stabilization before getting too aggressive.

@Captain's Treasure

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)Microsoft’s layoffs caught my attention, especially as job cuts are becoming increasingly common across the industry. It feels like AI is finally starting to replace some routine white-collar work, rather than just being a story about future productivity gains.

For companies, that could actually be a positive: lower labor costs and better margins, even if revenue growth stays modest. The interesting part is that what looks worrying for the job market could turn out to be good news for corporate earnings.

The big question is whether AI can deliver enough real productivity gains to justify the hype, or whether companies are simply cutting costs first and figuring out the rest later.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ had a rough week. The shooting star rejection near the lower boundary of the channel suggests that sellers are stepping in on rallies, as investors grow increasingly skeptical about the sustainability of AI earnings growth.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to push toward new highs, and the VIX is surging, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market.

The combination is getting harder to ignore: stretched expectations around AI profitability, rising energy costs, and increasing volatility. Even if the long-term AI story remains intact, the market may be entering a much less forgiving phase.

Risk is clearly building, and the next move could be decisive. I’ll be watching whether QQQ can reclaim key technical levels or whether selling pressure continues to intensify.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)Despite Tesla’s declining profits, I think the market may actually reward its decision to cut capital expenditures and preserve cash flow. In the current environment, capital discipline could matter more than headline earnings, especially as investors become increasingly selective about growth spending.

I see this as a reasonable time to keep accumulating through DCA. The key question is whether Tesla can maintain its long-term growth ambitions while becoming more disciplined with its spending.

For now, I’m watching cash flow and capital allocation just as closely as earnings. The market may be willing to look past weaker profits if the company can demonstrate better financial discipline.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)SPCX delivered the kind of high-growth earnings report I was expecting, triggering a sharp rebound from the previous selloff. The fundamentals came through as anticipated, and the market seems ready to reward that growth story again.

My only regret is that I didn’t add enough during the pullback. I was right about the recovery potential, but a little too conservative with my entries.

Next time, if the stock pulls back and confirms support, I’ll look to add more aggressively rather than miss out on another rebound. The key is distinguishing a healthy correction from a genuine deterioration in the underlying story.

@Captain's Treasure

$Intel(INTC.US)INTC has fallen all the way back to where this rally started. I’m still hoping to get another entry around 60, but I’m also considering redirecting my regular Microsoft DCA into Intel instead.

The hardware correction probably isn’t over yet, but software hasn’t offered many exciting opportunities either. With AI spending still concentrated in infrastructure, Intel’s turnaround story is becoming more interesting to watch as the stock gives back its recent gains.

I’m not ready to chase the dip blindly, but I may start shifting my accumulation toward names where expectations have already come down. The challenge is figuring out whether this is a genuine opportunity or just the beginning of another leg lower.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ printed a massive bearish weekly candle, reinforcing the idea that a deeper correction in AI hardware may finally be underway. Rising oil prices are adding another layer of pressure, while Treasury yields have started falling ahead of the broader selloff.

That combination is worrying. The market may be starting to price in a stagflation scenario, where an AI investment bust hits growth just as higher energy costs keep inflation elevated. Falling yields aren’t necessarily bullish if they reflect growing fears about the economic outlook.

This week feels especially important. The key question is whether QQQ can stabilize after the breakdown or whether the selling pressure will spread further across the market.

@Captain's Treasure

$Tesla(TSLA.US)I’ve been trying to guess what would trigger Tesla’s next move, and then Musk suddenly pulls a flying car out of nowhere. You have to give him credit for knowing how to keep the market entertained.

As usual, TSLA popped in premarket before giving back some of the gains, but the new narrative could still provide the spark for another short squeeze. With Tesla, the catalysts rarely arrive when you expect them to.

For now, I’m sticking with my regular DCA and treating this as a potential momentum catalyst. Whether the flying car becomes a real business is another question entirely.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)The past few days have been brutal, with hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints triggering a broad market selloff. SPCX has given back most of its gains from the past few months, showing just how quickly sentiment can reverse when macro pressure takes over.

Fortunately, I sold most of my position during the previous rally, so I’m not taking the full hit on the way down. The one encouraging sign is that Treasury yields have started falling ahead of the broader market’s recovery.

For now, the key question is whether that drop in yields can provide some relief, or whether inflation fears will continue to dominate risk assets.

@Captain's Treasure

$Apple(AAPL.US)Apple’s resilience amid a hotter-than-expected CPI print isn’t particularly surprising. In a market where higher rates are putting pressure on tech valuations, investors still seem willing to pay a premium for stability and reliable cash flow.

The problem is that AAPL has already climbed to a level where adding more feels uncomfortable. The strength is reassuring, but chasing it here leaves little room for error if sentiment turns.

It’s an awkward spot to be in: the stock keeps proving its strength, yet the price makes it harder to justify increasing exposure.

@Captain's Treasure

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQM.US)QQQ made another new high last week before giving back some of its gains, while weakness spread across the hardware sector. The bigger concern is market breadth: fewer stocks are participating in the rally, even as the index remains near record highs.

That combination makes the next move particularly difficult to read. The headline index still looks strong, but underneath, the market feels increasingly fragile. We could see more rotation and sharp swings as investors decide whether to keep chasing the highs or start taking profits.

For now, I’m expecting a more choppy market where index strength alone may no longer tell the whole story.

@Captain's Treasure

$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)Gemini 4 has been dragging its feet for half a month without much meaningful news, but Google’s stock has remained surprisingly resilient. The lack of a major catalyst hasn’t translated into much weakness, which says something about the market’s underlying confidence in the company.

At this point, GOOGL feels more like an index stabilizer than an exciting growth trade. There’s not much to chase right now, but at least it’s holding up while other parts of tech struggle to find direction.

@Captain's Treasure

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Microsoft’s strength hasn’t really surprised me. When Treasury yields start getting out of control, the market tends to make its preference pretty clear: cash flow matters, and Microsoft is exactly the kind of name that benefits from that rotation.

I’ve still been DCA-ing, but now I’m starting to struggle with where the exit point should be. Breaking the previous high doesn’t look particularly difficult from here, but the real question is whether to trim before earnings or just let the position run into the report.

Sometimes the hardest trade isn’t knowing when to buy—it’s deciding when to stop being patient.

@Captain's Treasure

$SpaceX(SPCX.US)SPCX has gone through a pretty aggressive short squeeze, with the stock moving up much faster than I expected. After such a sharp run, I’m starting to think about taking some profit rather than chasing the move higher.

For now, I’m looking at around 180 as the area where I’d consider trimming part of the position. I’m not necessarily changing my view on the story itself—I just want to lock in some gains after the momentum trade has played out.

The key question now is whether this move can turn into a sustainable trend or simply burn through the remaining short interest.

@Captain's Treasure