TLT I'm going to buy it this way.

Buying TLT is almost equivalent to going long on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which means expecting the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to decline. Recently, I read an analysis article about the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, which provided a trading range. Although TLT tracks 20-year and longer U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield trends of 10-year and 20-year bonds are generally similar, so it can be used as a reference for TLT trading. Post link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HwCcn7OY66CWPLo7ESjnlg

Original conclusion: The range for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds can be anchored at 3.2%-4.2%, with 3.7% serving as the allocation midpoint. Moving up 20-30bp to the 3.9%-4.0% range is a better point for additional allocation.

Let me translate: The fluctuation range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is 3.2%–4.2%. When it rises to 3.7%, you can increase your position in TLT, and at 3.9%–4.0%, you can double down. So, what are the corresponding price points for TLT?

When the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is at 3.7%, the most recent two timeframes—May and June 2023 and early August to early September this year—correspond to TLT prices between 95–100. This range is suitable for increasing positions;
When the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is at 3.9%–4.0%, the most recent two timeframes—July and August 2023 and late July this year—correspond to TLT prices between 90–95. This is the point to double down;
When the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is at 4.2%, the most recent two timeframes—mid-August to mid-September 2023 and mid-June to mid-July this year—correspond to TLT prices around 90. When interest rates peak, TLT hits its lowest point.

The original article explains what the current 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield of 3.6% is pricing in, the rationale behind the pricing, and why this fluctuation range was given. Personally, I feel the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is falling too quickly. After the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, there might be a rebound, making TLT cheaper to buy later:

"Since late July, U.S. Treasury bond yields have accelerated their decline, moving so fast that many investors couldn’t keep up. In absolute terms, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield is in the 3.6%-3.7% range, only 40bp higher than the peak rate of 2.5% during the 2018 rate hikes. Looking at the rolling 3-month decline, this round’s drop exceeded 70bp, close to the extremes seen during the 2019 rate-cut cycle and the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, second only to the outbreak of the pandemic in early 2020."

$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US) $Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X(TMF.US)

@躺平致富 @corazon What do you think, teachers? 🥹