Thoughts on the U.S. stock market performance in the second half of the year.

On Friday, the U.S. stock market was closed for Independence Day, and Shelly had a great weekend.

Mr. Cai Lan said: Learn as much as possible, experience as much as possible, travel as much as possible, and eat as much good food as possible, and life will be a little better. That's exactly right.

Over the weekend, there was some incremental information about U.S. stocks, and Shelly will share her analysis with everyone, hoping to provide some inspiration for future operations.

First, last Thursday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq broke through again. The overall U.S. stock market still shows clear bullish sentiment, which once again proves the resilience of the U.S. stock market.

According to Shelly's analysis, in the second half of 2025, U.S. stocks will continue to break new highs. The reasons are as follows:

1. First, it must be understood that the current new highs in U.S. stocks are not just due to tariff easing or sentiment but are mainly supported by fundamentals, especially driven by unprecedented AI capital expenditures. The strong performance and outlook of tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and NVIDIA send a clear signal—global capital expenditures on AI show no signs of slowing down. The global demand for AI computing power continues to surge, and this logic will keep catalyzing the market with significant momentum. Therefore, Shelly believes the AI boom will continue to drive a strong rebound in U.S. stocks for a long time.

2. The U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations in June, and a lot of macroeconomic data proves that the U.S. labor market and economy are steadily developing. The stock market is a barometer of the economy, so when the economy is doing well, the stock market will also perform well.

3. Data shows that in the first half of 2025, retail investors' net purchases reached $155.3 billion, surpassing the historical record during the meme stock frenzy in 2021. Retail funds are the foundation of market liquidity, and collective behavior can amplify short-term trends into medium- to long-term trends. Moreover, institutions are also heavily buying into America.

4. Currently, many fund managers in the U.S. face performance pressure to "catch up with the index." They need to ensure their performance does not lag behind the S&P 500, so they will keep buying into the index recently.

5. Currently, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are relatively clear. It is widely expected that there will be no rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September is around 80%. So, when interest rates actually drop, U.S. stocks will catalyze another short-term rally.

Now, let's talk about the big thing everyone is discussing: Elon Musk founded the American Party.

Actually, founding a third party in America is not new; there have been precedents before. But as the world's richest man, Musk's influence is significant. $Tesla(TSLA.US)

As for whether this is good or bad for TSLA, Shelly cannot conclude yet. But one thing is certain: capital hates uncertainty, so Shelly will not make any new moves on TSLA.

During TSLA's two major drops in June, Shelly made several short-term trades with good returns. But now is not the time for short-term trading. I will closely monitor Musk's next moves and will update everyone when the next short-term opportunity for TSLA arises.

Additionally, my long-term bullish stance on TSLA remains unchanged. Musk is an extraordinary entrepreneur fighting for all humanity, so I will not touch my core position.

Now, let's talk about the most asked-about Hong Kong stocks: $MEITUAN(03690.HK) and $BABA-W(09988.HK).

Shelly has mentioned before that Hong Kong stocks are generally undervalued, with solid fundamentals, and institutions are indeed singing the praises of Chinese assets.

However, Shelly also said that it's not yet time to bottom-fish or add positions in these Hong Kong stocks because stock prices are the result of multiple factors. As a professional investor, analyzing a stock requires more than just low valuation and good fundamentals; technicals also matter. On July 3, Meituan broke downward, but I won't add positions immediately because, due to poor liquidity in Hong Kong stocks, short sellers have some momentum, and indeed, the stock continued to fall in the following sessions.

As for when Shelly will add positions in Meituan, I will update everyone then.

U.S. stocks will continue to break new highs. Every subsequent market dip will present major buying opportunities in certain sectors and stocks. Focus on these sectors:

Defense, traditional energy, finance, and manufacturing

For the future market, Shelly believes we only need to focus on these two points:

1. Whether Trump's "tariff suspension" policy will be renewed—mid-July is a key indicator;

2. The direction of fiscal spending (including the Big and Beautiful Act);

3. The intensity of AI infrastructure investment;

4. The timing of the Fed's actual rate cut.

If these variables remain stable, U.S. stocks will continue their unstoppable upward trend.

BTW, Geek+ and Lens Technology are drawing lots daily—wishing everyone big wins!!!!

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US) $SPDR S&P 500(SPY.US) $SANHUA(02050.HK) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Apple(AAPL.US)