An analysis by JP Morgan on the winners of open-source vs. closed-source in different scenarios

The conclusion is that regardless of whether open-source weights, closed-source weights win or lose, or if it's a dead heat, large cloud providers and NVIDIA will all win

The logic behind open-source models benefiting cloud providers: The rise of open-source models is dismantling the monopoly of closed-source models, transforming CSPs from mere resellers of tokens into AI operating systems: Cloud providers control routing rights, customer relationships, and pricing power, allowing them to directly host open-source models and sell tokens, thereby reducing external profit-sharing. Meanwhile, open-source competition drives up training investment and call volumes.

This ultimately forms a positive cycle: Model layer rents decrease → Cloud provider monetization efficiency improves → Inference price drops stimulate new demand → High data center utilization drives continuous compute investment

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)$Amazon(AMZN.US)$Microsoft(MSFT.US)$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)