<p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -2.62%），作为一家个人设备和技术巨头，多年来为许多投资者创造了财富。自 1980 年以来，该股票的回报超过了 250,000%。当时的一次性投资 1,000 美元，如今价值超过 250 万美元！该公司多年来稳步发展，直到 2007 年凭借 iPhone 取得了巨大的成功，基本上定义了今天的苹果业务。</p>
<p>但现在可以合理地思考，苹果是否仍然有足够的动力为新投资者创造可观的财富。毕竟，苹果今天的市值超过 3.8 万亿美元，全球有超过 22 亿人使用 iOS 设备。</p>
<p>苹果可能已经过了其最佳增长时期，但它是一家独特而卓越的企业，投资者不应过于轻易地将其排除在外。</p>
<p>以下是投资者可能对该股票未来的期望。</p>
<h2>苹果能否再次捕捉到闪电？</h2>
<p>我认为说 iPhone 改变了世界并不夸张。它彻底颠覆了手机需要物理按键的观念。iPhone 是苹果今天所成为的主要原因。苹果在 2024 年创造了 3910 亿美元的收入，其中超过一半（2010 亿美元）来自 iPhone 销售，另有 960 亿美元来自订阅服务——主要用于 iPhone。</p>
<p>苹果通常每年发布一款新 iPhone，但近年来似乎更难说服客户升级到新设备。苹果在 2020 年底发布了其首款 5G 无线网络 iPhone，自那次升级周期以来，收入一直停滞不前。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ef765a8c649764d6b094b72d9acfaa7a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ef765a8c649764d6b094b72d9acfaa7a.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>这并不一定意味着苹果的增长或 iPhone 本身的结束。苹果因其生态系统的粘性而闻名，因此忠实的苹果用户很可能会继续使用 iOS 设备，并随着时间的推移进行升级。然而，苹果可能需要一个新的重大突破，以激发所需的增长，从而产生与其辉煌过去表现相似的投资回报。</p>
<p>苹果在 2024 年初推出了一款高端增强现实耳机——Apple Vision Pro，但据报道，由于销售疲软，自发布以来已将产量削减近一半。苹果在今年的 iPhone 发布中引入了人工智能（AI）软件（Apple Intelligence），但报告显示，这也未能引起客户的关注。</p>
<h2>苹果的财务工程为股票提供了坚实的底线</h2>
<p>很难将苹果排除在外，因为它拥有巨大的资源和忠实的用户基础。只要有一个有效的产品，苹果就可能再次获得巨大的成功，因为如果新产品受到用户欢迎，苹果可以迅速实现增长。此外，苹果可以说是全球在财务工程（良性方面）方面最优秀的公司。</p>
<p>换句话说，苹果利用其现有利润创造股东价值。今年，该公司从 3910 亿美元的收入中产生了 1080 亿美元的自由现金流。苹果资助了一项已连续 12 年增加的股息。它还花费数十亿美元回购股票，以减少流通股数量并提高每股利润。这就是为什么苹果在过去十年中收入增长了 95%，而每股收益增长超过 227% 的原因。</p>
<p>更高的每股收益支持更高的股价。即使没有显著的收入增长，只要苹果继续从其现有业务中产生现金流，它仍然可能是一个有前景的长期投资。服务是苹果增长最快、利润最高的收入部门，这对未来是个好兆头。</p>
<h2>现在可能不是购买股票的最佳时机</h2>
<p>苹果在每股收益增长方面的能力令人印象深刻，但这并不能完全取代对真正收入增长的需求。</p>
<p>投资者应谨慎，不要在苹果公司努力寻找新的催化剂时为其股票支付过高的价格。市场似乎已经将乐观情绪定价在苹果股票中，认为 Apple Intelligence 能够满足这一需求。该股票的市盈率（P/E）已经飙升至多年来的最高水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4e5780da8707173277989e9ed15b5e90.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4e5780da8707173277989e9ed15b5e90.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
<p>即使使用 2025 年的收益预估，该股票的前瞻市盈率为 34。如果分析师预计苹果在未来三到五年内平均年收益增长 13% 到 14% 是准确的，那就显得很高。由此产生的市盈率与增长比（PEG）为 2.5，几乎是我愿意为像苹果这样的高质量股票支付的最高价格。这样的比率使投资者面临下行风险，如果公司未能兑现预期。</p>
<p>苹果是一家伟大的公司，但在没有新的颠覆性增长催化剂的情况下，股票从目前的规模和估值中产生大幅回报将更加困难。在此之前，投资者应降低期望，并谨慎对待该股票。</p>

苹果

<p>苹果的股票历史上提供了可观的回报，但其增长可能正在趋于平稳。该公司的市值超过 3.8 万亿美元，来自 iPhone 销售的显著收入使其面临推动新增长的挑战。最近推出的产品，如 Apple Vision Pro，销售情况不佳。尽管财务工程和现金流表现强劲，但投资者在当前高估值下购买苹果股票时应保持谨慎，因为未来的增长催化剂尚不确定。该股票的高市盈率暗示，如果增长预期未能实现，可能存在下行风险</p>

<p><strong>Apple</strong>(AAPL -2.62%), a personal devices and technology behemoth, has set many investors up for life over the years. The stock has returned over 250,000% since 1980. A one-time $1,000 investment back then would be worth over $2.5 million today! The company evolved steadily over the years before striking gold with the iPhone in 2007, essentially defining the business Apple is today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>苹果</strong>（AAPL -2.62%），作为一家个人设备和技术巨头，多年来为许多投资者创造了财富。自 1980 年以来，该股票的回报超过了 250,000%。当时的一次性投资 1,000 美元，如今价值超过 250 万美元！该公司多年来稳步发展，直到 2007 年凭借 iPhone 取得了巨大的成功，基本上定义了今天的苹果业务。</p>
</div><p>But now it could be fair to ponder whether Apple still has enough juice to build substantial wealth for new investors. After all, Apple is worth over $3.8 trillion today, and over 2.2 billion people worldwide use iOS devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但现在可以合理地思考，苹果是否仍然有足够的动力为新投资者创造可观的财富。毕竟，苹果今天的市值超过 3.8 万亿美元，全球有超过 22 亿人使用 iOS 设备。</p>
</div><p>Apple may be past its prime growth era, but it's a uniquely remarkable business that investors shouldn't be too quick to write off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果可能已经过了其最佳增长时期，但它是一家独特而卓越的企业，投资者不应过于轻易地将其排除在外。</p>
</div><p>Here is what investors might expect from the stock moving forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是投资者可能对该股票未来的期望。</p>
</div><h2>Can Apple capture lightning in a bottle again?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果能否再次捕捉到闪电？</h2>
</div><p>I don't think it's exaggerating to say the iPhone changed the world. It blew the notion that a cellphone needed physical keys out of the water. The iPhone is primarily responsible for Apple being what it is today. Apple generated $391 billion in revenue in 2024, with just over half ($201 billion) coming from iPhone sales and another $96 billion from subscription services -- primarily used on iPhones.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我认为说 iPhone 改变了世界并不夸张。它彻底颠覆了手机需要物理按键的观念。iPhone 是苹果今天所成为的主要原因。苹果在 2024 年创造了 3910 亿美元的收入，其中超过一半（2010 亿美元）来自 iPhone 销售，另有 960 亿美元来自订阅服务——主要用于 iPhone。</p>
</div><p>Apple traditionally releases a new iPhone annually, but it has seemingly been more challenging to sell customers on upgrading to new devices in recent years. Apple released its first iPhone for 5G wireless networks in late 2020, and revenue has plateaued since that upgrade cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果通常每年发布一款新 iPhone，但近年来似乎更难说服客户升级到新设备。苹果在 2020 年底发布了其首款 5G 无线网络 iPhone，自那次升级周期以来，收入一直停滞不前。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ef765a8c649764d6b094b72d9acfaa7a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/ef765a8c649764d6b094b72d9acfaa7a.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL Revenue (TTM) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 收入（TTM）数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>This doesn't necessarily spell the end of Apple's growth or the iPhone itself. Apple has become famous for how sticky its ecosystem is, so there's a good chance that loyal Apple users will continue using iOS devices, upgrading as needed over time. However, Apple probably needs a new home run to spark the growth needed to generate similar investment returns to its storied past performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这并不一定意味着苹果的增长或 iPhone 本身的结束。苹果因其生态系统的粘性而闻名，因此忠实的苹果用户很可能会继续使用 iOS 设备，并随着时间的推移进行升级。然而，苹果可能需要一个新的重大突破，以激发所需的增长，从而产生与其辉煌过去表现相似的投资回报。</p>
</div><p>Apple launched a high-end augmented reality headset, the Apple Vision Pro, in early 2024, but it has reportedly cut production nearly in half since launch due to weak sales. Apple introduced artificial intelligence (AI) software as part of this year's iPhone release (Apple Intelligence), but reports indicate that it hasn't moved the needle with customers, either.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在 2024 年初推出了一款高端增强现实耳机——Apple Vision Pro，但据报道，由于销售疲软，自发布以来已将产量削减近一半。苹果在今年的 iPhone 发布中引入了人工智能（AI）软件（Apple Intelligence），但报告显示，这也未能引起客户的关注。</p>
</div><h2>Apple's financial engineering puts a solid floor on the stock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>苹果的财务工程为股票提供了坚实的底线</h2>
</div><p>It's hard to count Apple out, because it has immense resources and a loyal user base. All it takes is something that works, and Apple could win big again, because it can grow a new product quickly if it's popular with users. Plus, Apple is arguably the world's best company in financial engineering (the good kind).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>很难将苹果排除在外，因为它拥有巨大的资源和忠实的用户基础。只要有一个有效的产品，苹果就可能再次获得巨大的成功，因为如果新产品受到用户欢迎，苹果可以迅速实现增长。此外，苹果可以说是全球在财务工程（良性方面）方面最优秀的公司。</p>
</div><p>In other words, Apple uses its existing profits to create shareholder value. This year, the company generated $108 billion in free cash flow from its $391 billion in revenue. Apple funds a dividend that it has raised for 12 consecutive years. It also spends billions of dollars to repurchase shares to reduce its share count and increase its per-share profits. That's why Apple's revenue has grown 95% over the past decade, while earnings per share have increased by over 227%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，苹果利用其现有利润创造股东价值。今年，该公司从 3910 亿美元的收入中产生了 1080 亿美元的自由现金流。苹果资助了一项已连续 12 年增加的股息。它还花费数十亿美元回购股票，以减少流通股数量并提高每股利润。这就是为什么苹果在过去十年中收入增长了 95%，而每股收益增长超过 227% 的原因。</p>
</div><p>Higher earnings per share support a higher share price. Apple could still be a productive long-term investment, even without significant revenue growth, as long as it continues to generate cash flow from its existing business. Services are Apple's fastest-growing and most profitable revenue segment, which bodes well for the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更高的每股收益支持更高的股价。即使没有显著的收入增长，只要苹果继续从其现有业务中产生现金流，它仍然可能是一个有前景的长期投资。服务是苹果增长最快、利润最高的收入部门，这对未来是个好兆头。</p>
</div><h2>It might not be the right time to buy shares</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>现在可能不是购买股票的最佳时机</h2>
</div><p>Apple's ability to engineer earnings per share growth is impressive, but it does not entirely replace the need for genuine revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果在每股收益增长方面的能力令人印象深刻，但这并不能完全取代对真正收入增长的需求。</p>
</div><p>Investors should be careful not to overpay for Apple stock while the company struggles to find a new catalyst. It seems the market has priced optimism into Apple stock that Apple Intelligence would fill that need. The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has floated to its highest levels in years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者应谨慎，不要在苹果公司努力寻找新的催化剂时为其股票支付过高的价格。市场似乎已经将乐观情绪定价在苹果股票中，认为 Apple Intelligence 能够满足这一需求。该股票的市盈率（P/E）已经飙升至多年来的最高水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4e5780da8707173277989e9ed15b5e90.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4e5780da8707173277989e9ed15b5e90.png"/></p>
<p>AAPL PE Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>AAPL 市盈率数据来自 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Even using 2025 earnings estimates, the stock's forward P/E ratio is 34. If analyst estimates about Apple averaging 13% to 14% annual earnings growth over the next three to five years are accurate, that's steep. The resulting price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 2.5 is about the maximum I'd pay for a high-quality stock like Apple. A ratio like this leaves investors exposed to downside risk if the company doesn't deliver on expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使使用 2025 年的收益预估，该股票的前瞻市盈率为 34。如果分析师预计苹果在未来三到五年内平均年收益增长 13% 到 14% 是准确的，那就显得很高。由此产生的市盈率与增长比（PEG）为 2.5，几乎是我愿意为像苹果这样的高质量股票支付的最高价格。这样的比率使投资者面临下行风险，如果公司未能兑现预期。</p>
</div><p>Apple is a great company, but it will be more challenging for the stock to generate big-time returns from its current size and valuation without a new game-changing growth catalyst. Until that arrives, investors should temper their expectations and approach the stock cautiously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果是一家伟大的公司，但在没有新的颠覆性增长催化剂的情况下，股票从目前的规模和估值中产生大幅回报将更加困难。在此之前，投资者应降低期望，并谨慎对待该股票。</p>
</div>

Could Buying Apple Stock Today Set You Up for Life?

- 苹果公司自 1980 年以来股价回报超过 250,000%。  
- 2024 年苹果营收 3910 亿美元，iPhone 销售占一半以上。  
- 投资者应谨慎对待苹果股票，需关注新增长催化剂。  

今天购买苹果股票能让你一生无忧吗？